March 29, 2025 • 23 mins
Our guest is Christopher Towler, PhD. He is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at California State University, Sacramento. He is the Director of the Black Voter Project, Co-Founder of Black Insights Research and the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics.
In the first half of the show, we talk about the data that allows us to draw rather different conclusions than many folks had when going into the most recent presidential election. Many narratives were chronicled that are not ultimately supported by the polling of Black people around this country.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Broadcasting from the Hip Hop Weekly Studios.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
I'd like to welcome you to another episode of Civic Cipher,
where our mission is to foster allyship empathy and understanding.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I'm your host, Rams' job.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
He is Rams' job, I am q Ward. You are
tuned into Civic Cipher, Yes.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
You are, and you know we've been putting it off
long enough. We've been teasing it long enough. Of course,
q is now back despite having you know, committed to
having him back on the show for some time. He's
now back with us. So the family is complete, and
we bring a very special gift for this episode. We
(00:38):
hope that you will be as enlightened as and as
informed by the conversations we've been able to have with
our guests today as we have been. Our guest, of course,
is the one and only doctor Christopher Twer, who is
an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at
California State University, Sacramento. He is the director of the
Back the Black Voter Project, the co founder of Black
(00:59):
inn Sites Research, and the editor in chief of the
Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
So welcome to the show.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Thank you so much. It's an honor to be here
excited to have this conversation.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Yeah, and we're very much looking forward to it.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
And for those that may not know what all of
that means, and I'm sure that you know, you'll get
into it a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Doctor Tayler works with data.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
So you know, a lot of times us as journalists
and you know, people politicians, et cetera, derived conclusions from
you know, their own experience, from you know, the way
the world feels to them, whatever. But a lot of
times that information is really siloed and people don't really
know it. And so what doctor Taller has been able
(01:45):
to do is kind of give us a global view
of where we are as a people, where we are politically,
what our goals should be, and what our goals no
longer should be. And we're again, we're very much looking
forward to the conversation we're about to have. But before
we there, it is time to start off with some
ebony excellence, shall we? I think we shall. So today's
(02:07):
ABNY excellence comes from the Black Information Network and I
will share a seventeen year old Georgia student has received
over sixty college acceptances and one million dollars in scholarships.
Good morning, America reports. Montavius Lebron Presley, a student at
Douglas County High School in Georgia, said he started applying
for colleges on the first day of his senior year
(02:28):
in the hopes of pursuing medicine and later becoming an anesthesiologist.
Presley juggled dual enrollment courses and work based learning while
completing as many applications as possible. He also held leadership
roles in the National Honor Society and Future Business Leaders
of America as he worked at a local pizza restaurant.
Presley said he received his first college acceptance from the
(02:48):
University of Alabama, one of his top school choices, in October.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
The offers continued to pour in.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
As of last week, Presley received sixty one acceptances and
was awarded over one point one million scholarships. The teenager
said he was determined to attend college from a young age.
Quote when I was a little boy, I always said
that I would go to the university because people in
my family will always talk about how much they love
their college life and how much it really impacted them.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
So I always thought.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
When I was a little boy that I would just
go off and do something amazing. So again, Montavius Presley,
you are our example of e any excellence this week,
especially when we talk about the amount of scholarship money
you've received, that in and of itself is a testament
to just a great accomplishments that you've already achieved.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
And hopefully the things that are to come.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
And so the segment is the segment here exists to
highlight people that we think are doing great things and
to remind other folks that we aren't just the worst things,
you know, and often enough we are the best things.
In today's example is you now, doctor Tyler again, welcome
back to the show. You know, for folks that you know,
(04:08):
for what we didn't cover, you know, go ahead and
give an introduction of you know, kind of the work
that you do, the nature of the work that you do,
and a little bit more about yourself, just so folks
have a little bit more of an idea of who
they're talking to today.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Absolutely, as I said, pleasure to be here. I've been
studying black politics for over a decade now. A lot
of my work has focused on collecting accurate and reliable
data of the black community, something that really doesn't exist,
not just in today's political world, but even in the
academic spheres, and it's something that I've taken pride in
(04:40):
doing really for the last six to seven years as
part of the Black Voter Project, where I've periodically collected
data sets, both nationally regional data sets, statewide data sets
of just black people to try and get a sense
as to how Black attitudes and opinions might be similar
and different from those of the rest of America, attitudes
(05:02):
that oftentimes aren't captured in mainstream surveys and work that's
done in mainstream publications in mainstream media. This past election cycle,
I had the privilege of having a project funded to
collect four waves of election data from Black Americans, waves
that were of the same people at four different points
(05:23):
in time throughout the election, and then one wave after
the election to see how things have changed or shifted
once the election took place.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
And so a lot of.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
My recent sort of work and ideas come from that
data set, But that data is built on a number
of years of different projects collecting other types of data,
again all focused on Black Americans and the black experience
and trying to understand how attitudes and opinions and behaviors
of black people are shaped in ways that are similar
(05:58):
and unique to general America.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Really pushing for.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
A clear path to having a narrative for black political
power and having pundits and politicians understand what Black America
is thinking when they otherwise might not really have the
data to do so.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Doctor Tyler, There's an interesting thing that happens hosting this show.
Because of the type of stories that we cover and
our position with our listeners, we spend a lot of
time talking about very, very difficult subjects. A counterpoint to
that is that oftentimes we get to talk to people
(06:43):
who we admire and respect and who we are honored
to have a conversation with.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
And today is one of those times.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
So you know, if you can see my smile, I'm
trying to fight my smile off. Very very excited and
honor to be speaking with you today. A wonderful thing
that happens in your space is the use of data
in facts and ramses. And I in our travels have
heard many times that facts don't care about your feelings,
(07:12):
and using data to tell stories is just a far
more effective way to do it than how sometimes I
get very emotional. So thank you for providing that balance
for us as well.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
Yeah, happy to do it.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
We've asked before, and it had conversations before about the
idea of black men defecting from the Democratic voter base.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Is that something that you noticed.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And a second question would be, have you seen that
black men are regretting or those who did vote for
President Trump regretting the decision that they made.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yeah, that's a great question and one that kept coming
up throughout the election cycle. I think, first and foremost,
it's important to point out that the data that I've collected,
some of the largest data sets on Black Americans, in
what I consider some of the most reliable data out
there when looking at black public opinion, kind of puts
to bed these narratives that a lot of black folk
(08:11):
defected and voted for Trump. There's nothing in the data
that suggests that the turnout did decline slightly, and I'll
get into that in just a second. But when it
came to who black people voted for, I found that
just as many black people voted for Kamala Harris about
eighty six percent, as they did for Joe Biden in
twenty twenty, and almost the exact same amount of the
(08:32):
black community, right around twelve percent voted for Donald Trump,
and so there was no major defection, no racial realignment
of Black people moving towards Trump or the Republicans in
this election cycle. When it comes to black men, My data,
because it's unique, and then I collected data over time,
shows that in the beginning there might have been some
(08:52):
truth to the idea that black men were not very
excited about voting for the Democratic candidate, especially when it
was Joe Biden. Early on in April, when I asked
people who they were going to vote for, only about
fifty eight percent of black men said that they were
going to vote for Joe Biden. By the time I
asked people to get in August and Harris had moved
to the top of the ticket, the number of black
(09:13):
men who said they were going to vote for Harris
jumped to sixty three percent and ended up all the
way at eighty two percent saying that they voted for Harris.
After the asking them after the election who they ended
up voting for. That number rose tremendously throughout the election cycle,
showing that black men came.
Speaker 5 (09:31):
Around to the Democratic Party.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
There was not much defection, if at all, and we
actually see that there's a slightly higher percentage of black
men at eighty two percent, that voted for Kamala Harris
in twenty twenty four than the seventy nine percent of
black men according to exit polls, that voted for Biden
in twenty twenty and so kind of both of these
narratives fly in the face of good, accurate data that
(09:54):
black people, and especially black men, actually defected much, if
at all, this election cycle.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
I'm sure you've noticed there's been a lot in the
way of counter programming and loud contrarian opinion with regard
to where black people stand in the current political climate.
Where from what you see, does the overall black public
opinion like now post election, now that those those votes
(10:22):
have been cast, we are now in this current administration,
What does the data say about where our opinion, our
public opinion collectively stands today.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah, I think that's a really interesting point. There's tons
of misinformation out there. I'm finding that it's especially affecting
younger black cohorts because they rely a lot on social
media and YouTube and podcasts, more so than older Black
people who pay more attention to sort of television and
traditional media. However, all Black people that I've talked to
(10:59):
after the election are far more disillusioned and apathetic than
they were even.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
You six months prior to it, when Biden was still
the candidate.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Over the election cycle, the data that I collected suggested
that there was some sense of positivity building amongst the
Black community when it came to the Democratic Party, primarily
because of Harris elevating to the top of the ticket,
and so initially about twenty eight percent of Black people
said that they felt that the Democratic Party was welcoming
(11:29):
to Black people. That rose up to forty two percent
right before the election when asked in October, after Harris
having successfully sort of mounted a campaign that looked like
she was very competitive going into election day. However, when
asked again in December after the election, that number dropped
from forty two percent back down to thirty five percent,
reversing course right and so there were significantly less people
(11:52):
saying that the Democratic Party was welcoming to Black people
after the election, showing this sense of sort of disillusionment
and apathy with party. We also asked people looking forward
whether or not they felt like a second Trump president
was going to motivate them to participate or if a
second Trump presidency would prove exhausting and they kind of
just want to be left alone. And when we ask
(12:14):
people this question, about twenty three percent said that they
were motivated compared to a whole forty three percent who
said they were going to be they felt exhausted and
wanted to be left alone. And when we looked at
that in some different breakdowns in the beauty of collecting
sort of these large data sets of just black folks,
as you can actually look at things based on age
(12:35):
and gender and have real ideas as to what's taking
place instead of having to do cuts with small sections
of data and other surveys that aren't designed to measure
black opinion. And when doing so, when it comes to
looking forward, we found that a whole fifty one percent
of black women said that they were exhausted and really
just wanted to be left alone after the election, kind
(12:56):
of building on this sentiment that you suggested where people
are really tired, right and they feel like this selection
really beat them down, building on a lot of the
memes that we see where especially black women are ready
to just you know, sit back and watch the world
burn if need be.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
A very interesting mixture of frustration, apathy, and just kind
of a lack of enthusiasm is what Ramses and I
have noticed. People being feeling hopeless has led to conversations
(13:34):
that we've noticed where there's a blatant false equivalence. You know,
people are like throwing up their hands like, hey, neither
party cares about us, which Ramses and I thought was
a dangerous trend because even if that's how you feel,
I think it's pretty obvious that one side of the
aisle is more of what we've been hearing people call
(13:57):
for years an existential threat to democracy, and the other
why do people feel black people specifically so unenthusiastic about
what the Democratic Party brings to the table currently, Because
we've seen people just kind of tapping out on the
whole process and throwing their hands up and saying aloud
(14:18):
that neither party cares about us, So why should I care?
When we see that again, one side of the aisle
is just far more dangerous than the other.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Yeah, there's two things that I want to say here.
I think first it's important to point out you're exactly right.
The danger of building this false equivalency is real, and
I think it happened before the election took place. As well,
A lot of the rhetoric around certain black people voting
for Trump, or black men in particular moving towards Trump,
rhetoric that does not bear out in the data, tried
(14:49):
to build this false equivalency and really make it seem
like there's not much difference between the two candidates or
the two parties. And although this doesn't didn't necessarily cause
people to actually vote for or Trump or vote against
the Democrats, it did drive apathy and it caused people
to stay home and to not vote altogether. We absolutely
saw that numbers suggest black turnout was down in twenty
(15:12):
twenty four compared to twenty twenty, compared to twenty sixteen,
and especially compared to the Obama years, and in states
like Georgia, the only group to have turnout fall is
black voters.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Every other group, White voters, Asian American voters, Hispanic Latino voters,
they all saw increases in turnout from twenty twenty to
twenty twenty four. It was black voters who saw a drop.
And I really feel like that comes from building this
false equivalency. And so there's really two things here, right,
One it's the idea that the Democrats aren't doing anything
(15:47):
for black folk, and this has to be a misnomer
that is fought by breaking down some of the policy
that's taken place in real simple terms. But to do so,
you have to first meet a lot of black voters
where they are with their disillusionment. You can't kind of
talk down to people and tell them, hey, we've done
all this stuff. You should like us, Like are you dumb?
(16:07):
Why don't you know this? You have to understand that
a lot of people are working from a historical understanding
of politics where black people have been alienated and left
out for generations, and so it's not surprising that they
approach party politics with skepticism. So you have to meet
them where they are before you try and sell them
on any real accomplishments, especially with how complex a lot
(16:28):
of policies are, and it doesn't always easily translate down
to an individual's life. You might not exactly see how
some of the larger policies, especially things such as environmental
policy or healthcare policy, fit into one's everyday life. So
that's the first thing. The second thing is I think
Democrats failed to make as strong of a case they
(16:48):
could as to the dangers that Trump and the MAGA
movement represent to the Black community.
Speaker 5 (16:54):
In the surveys that I've conducted, a lot of people were.
Speaker 4 (16:57):
Not necessarily sure if Trump was going to follow through
on some of his threats. They didn't necessarily believe Project
twenty twenty five was a real thing, right, And this
again I see as more of a failure of Democrats
to really message as strongly as they possibly could, to
convince as many people that this is a real threat,
This needs our attention, and we need to vote to
(17:17):
protect ourselves from this. And all of the modeling I've
run before and since the election suggests that convincing people
that you need to vote to protect yourselves in this time,
in this political environment is the most effective and efficient
way to get people out to vote in thinking that
politics is important and relevant to their own lives.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You know, doctor Tyler, I wondered if the public, black
people and those who supported you know, Democratic candidates throughout
you know, the last let's say ten years, felt like
the party was crying wolf when it came to Project
twenty five. I said the word existential threat before, but
(17:59):
that wasn't the first time you heard that, and that
wasn't the first time A lot of voters heard that
as well.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
I think when you come and you say.
Speaker 3 (18:08):
That again, after people have already been through a Trump presidency,
they think, well, maybe it's not going to be that bad.
And the messaging about how afraid people should have been
of what the possible outcome could be with this election,
I think may have fallen on death ears because of that.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
As black people are looking.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Forward to what we can do now, what we can
do next, and what politics and society can look like
in the future, what do black voters, black citizens, black
Americans have to look forward to as we see the
promises of Project twenty twenty five coming to life. Right
the first time that Project twenty twenty five got the
(18:50):
type of attention that we'd hoped, I think it was
Taraji p Henson at a BT Award ceremony where she
kind of threw that term out into the stratug sphere
and people started reacting to it in real time. And
you know, the Republican ticket denied and denied and denied
that they had anything to do with it, even though
that was clearly a lie. I think some people bought
(19:12):
into that, so as we look forward, how do we
deal with this sense of hopelessness and apathy and look
forward to what we can do next.
Speaker 5 (19:24):
For me, it's twofold right.
Speaker 4 (19:26):
On the one hand, it's really important that we understand
that the political dangers are real when it comes to
Project twenty twenty five, when it comes to the Trump administration,
and that we don't just kind of sit out our
hands and wait for other people to see how real
it is and to act in our behalf right. The
black community has seen time and again different electorates, different
(19:49):
populations would rather take policies that hurt themselves and take
material hurt if they feel it's going to allow for
black people to gain less right, they'd rather see the
Black community hurt than benefit themselves. And so as black people,
(20:10):
we have to really stand up and find ways to
get our voice heard. We have to look for representatives
that we support, especially black representatives, who we feel are
speaking for the community, and prop them up and get
behind them, whether it's at the local or statewide level.
I think we have to look for other ways to
have our political voice heard too, beyond just voting right.
(20:32):
We're coming to a time where voting itself is becoming
more and more tenuous, and there's going to be even
more questions about access to voting and what type of
power the vote has, And so we have to make
sure that we have our voices heard political otherwise in
other realms, right, And so we see a number of
boycotts being organized. I think those are really important to
pay attention to right to use our economic power.
Speaker 5 (20:53):
To have a voice.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
There's other ways to have protest movements, sign petitions, find
ways to continue to speak your political voice with and
beyond voting, and really make the case to those, especially
those who are disengaged, who don't follow politics, who don't
pay attention to politics, that this is really going to
be a turning point in American history when it comes
(21:18):
to the road forward for the black community, and there's
an opportunity here to continue to fight, to continue to
push forward and sort of push back the authoritarian press,
if you will, trying to move us back towards an
era of Jim Crow, an era of less rights for
the black community, rather than allowing for those rights to
(21:41):
be infringed upon and having to work for generations again
just to get back to where we are right now.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Once upon a time, it seemed like our collective voice
was more singular. We were all fighting for the same
things and one of the same outcomes. It doesn't feel
like that anymore. Before we close out this segment, I
just wanted to get your opinion and on what the
data might show regarding how we collectively feel we can
(22:15):
work together for a better future for all of us.
Speaker 4 (22:20):
Yeah, I've noticed that too, and especially when looking at
sort of connections to party politics and solidarity within political identity.
There are younger generations of black people coming up today
who are different, who are more independent, who are more
ideologically moderate, less likely to attach themselves to the Democratic
Party than older people older Black communities, And to me,
(22:43):
it comes with the relationship and the connection to the
civil rights movement, the struggle in such a way that
these stories need to be told, that connection needs to
be maintained and people need to know what we've done
for each other right to continue to build and to
bring the youth back into the same cohorts that we've
(23:04):
had for generations sticking together
Broadcasting from the Hip Hop Weekly Studios.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
I'd like to welcome you to another episode of Civic Cipher,
where our mission is to foster allyship empathy and understanding.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
I'm your host, Rams' job.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
He is Rams' job, I am q Ward. You are
tuned into Civic Cipher, Yes.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
You are, and you know we've been putting it off
long enough. We've been teasing it long enough. Of course,
q is now back despite having you know, committed to
having him back on the show for some time. He's
now back with us. So the family is complete, and
we bring a very special gift for this episode. We
(00:38):
hope that you will be as enlightened as and as
informed by the conversations we've been able to have with
our guests today as we have been. Our guest, of course,
is the one and only doctor Christopher Twer, who is
an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at
California State University, Sacramento. He is the director of the
Back the Black Voter Project, the co founder of Black
(00:59):
inn Sites Research, and the editor in chief of the
Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
So welcome to the show.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
Thank you so much. It's an honor to be here
excited to have this conversation.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Yeah, and we're very much looking forward to it.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
And for those that may not know what all of
that means, and I'm sure that you know, you'll get
into it a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Doctor Tayler works with data.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
So you know, a lot of times us as journalists
and you know, people politicians, et cetera, derived conclusions from
you know, their own experience, from you know, the way
the world feels to them, whatever. But a lot of
times that information is really siloed and people don't really
know it. And so what doctor Taller has been able
(01:45):
to do is kind of give us a global view
of where we are as a people, where we are politically,
what our goals should be, and what our goals no
longer should be. And we're again, we're very much looking
forward to the conversation we're about to have. But before
we there, it is time to start off with some
ebony excellence, shall we? I think we shall. So today's
(02:07):
ABNY excellence comes from the Black Information Network and I
will share a seventeen year old Georgia student has received
over sixty college acceptances and one million dollars in scholarships.
Good morning, America reports. Montavius Lebron Presley, a student at
Douglas County High School in Georgia, said he started applying
for colleges on the first day of his senior year
(02:28):
in the hopes of pursuing medicine and later becoming an anesthesiologist.
Presley juggled dual enrollment courses and work based learning while
completing as many applications as possible. He also held leadership
roles in the National Honor Society and Future Business Leaders
of America as he worked at a local pizza restaurant.
Presley said he received his first college acceptance from the
(02:48):
University of Alabama, one of his top school choices, in October.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
The offers continued to pour in.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
As of last week, Presley received sixty one acceptances and
was awarded over one point one million scholarships. The teenager
said he was determined to attend college from a young age.
Quote when I was a little boy, I always said
that I would go to the university because people in
my family will always talk about how much they love
their college life and how much it really impacted them.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
So I always thought.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
When I was a little boy that I would just
go off and do something amazing. So again, Montavius Presley,
you are our example of e any excellence this week,
especially when we talk about the amount of scholarship money
you've received, that in and of itself is a testament
to just a great accomplishments that you've already achieved.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
And hopefully the things that are to come.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
And so the segment is the segment here exists to
highlight people that we think are doing great things and
to remind other folks that we aren't just the worst things,
you know, and often enough we are the best things.
In today's example is you now, doctor Tyler again, welcome
back to the show. You know, for folks that you know,
(04:08):
for what we didn't cover, you know, go ahead and
give an introduction of you know, kind of the work
that you do, the nature of the work that you do,
and a little bit more about yourself, just so folks
have a little bit more of an idea of who
they're talking to today.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Absolutely, as I said, pleasure to be here. I've been
studying black politics for over a decade now. A lot
of my work has focused on collecting accurate and reliable
data of the black community, something that really doesn't exist,
not just in today's political world, but even in the
academic spheres, and it's something that I've taken pride in
(04:40):
doing really for the last six to seven years as
part of the Black Voter Project, where I've periodically collected
data sets, both nationally regional data sets, statewide data sets
of just black people to try and get a sense
as to how Black attitudes and opinions might be similar
and different from those of the rest of America, attitudes
(05:02):
that oftentimes aren't captured in mainstream surveys and work that's
done in mainstream publications in mainstream media. This past election cycle,
I had the privilege of having a project funded to
collect four waves of election data from Black Americans, waves
that were of the same people at four different points
(05:23):
in time throughout the election, and then one wave after
the election to see how things have changed or shifted
once the election took place.
Speaker 5 (05:33):
And so a lot of.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
My recent sort of work and ideas come from that
data set, But that data is built on a number
of years of different projects collecting other types of data,
again all focused on Black Americans and the black experience
and trying to understand how attitudes and opinions and behaviors
of black people are shaped in ways that are similar
(05:58):
and unique to general America.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Really pushing for.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
A clear path to having a narrative for black political
power and having pundits and politicians understand what Black America
is thinking when they otherwise might not really have the
data to do so.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
Doctor Tyler, There's an interesting thing that happens hosting this show.
Because of the type of stories that we cover and
our position with our listeners, we spend a lot of
time talking about very, very difficult subjects. A counterpoint to
that is that oftentimes we get to talk to people
(06:43):
who we admire and respect and who we are honored
to have a conversation with.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
And today is one of those times.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
So you know, if you can see my smile, I'm
trying to fight my smile off. Very very excited and
honor to be speaking with you today. A wonderful thing
that happens in your space is the use of data
in facts and ramses. And I in our travels have
heard many times that facts don't care about your feelings,
(07:12):
and using data to tell stories is just a far
more effective way to do it than how sometimes I
get very emotional. So thank you for providing that balance
for us as well.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
Yeah, happy to do it.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
We've asked before, and it had conversations before about the
idea of black men defecting from the Democratic voter base.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Is that something that you noticed.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And a second question would be, have you seen that
black men are regretting or those who did vote for
President Trump regretting the decision that they made.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yeah, that's a great question and one that kept coming
up throughout the election cycle. I think, first and foremost,
it's important to point out that the data that I've collected,
some of the largest data sets on Black Americans, in
what I consider some of the most reliable data out
there when looking at black public opinion, kind of puts
to bed these narratives that a lot of black folk
(08:11):
defected and voted for Trump. There's nothing in the data
that suggests that the turnout did decline slightly, and I'll
get into that in just a second. But when it
came to who black people voted for, I found that
just as many black people voted for Kamala Harris about
eighty six percent, as they did for Joe Biden in
twenty twenty, and almost the exact same amount of the
(08:32):
black community, right around twelve percent voted for Donald Trump,
and so there was no major defection, no racial realignment
of Black people moving towards Trump or the Republicans in
this election cycle. When it comes to black men, My data,
because it's unique, and then I collected data over time,
shows that in the beginning there might have been some
(08:52):
truth to the idea that black men were not very
excited about voting for the Democratic candidate, especially when it
was Joe Biden. Early on in April, when I asked
people who they were going to vote for, only about
fifty eight percent of black men said that they were
going to vote for Joe Biden. By the time I
asked people to get in August and Harris had moved
to the top of the ticket, the number of black
(09:13):
men who said they were going to vote for Harris
jumped to sixty three percent and ended up all the
way at eighty two percent saying that they voted for Harris.
After the asking them after the election who they ended
up voting for. That number rose tremendously throughout the election cycle,
showing that black men came.
Speaker 5 (09:31):
Around to the Democratic Party.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
There was not much defection, if at all, and we
actually see that there's a slightly higher percentage of black
men at eighty two percent, that voted for Kamala Harris
in twenty twenty four than the seventy nine percent of
black men according to exit polls, that voted for Biden
in twenty twenty and so kind of both of these
narratives fly in the face of good, accurate data that
(09:54):
black people, and especially black men, actually defected much, if
at all, this election cycle.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
I'm sure you've noticed there's been a lot in the
way of counter programming and loud contrarian opinion with regard
to where black people stand in the current political climate.
Where from what you see, does the overall black public
opinion like now post election, now that those those votes
(10:22):
have been cast, we are now in this current administration,
What does the data say about where our opinion, our
public opinion collectively stands today.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah, I think that's a really interesting point. There's tons
of misinformation out there. I'm finding that it's especially affecting
younger black cohorts because they rely a lot on social
media and YouTube and podcasts, more so than older Black
people who pay more attention to sort of television and
traditional media. However, all Black people that I've talked to
(10:59):
after the election are far more disillusioned and apathetic than
they were even.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
You six months prior to it, when Biden was still
the candidate.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Over the election cycle, the data that I collected suggested
that there was some sense of positivity building amongst the
Black community when it came to the Democratic Party, primarily
because of Harris elevating to the top of the ticket,
and so initially about twenty eight percent of Black people
said that they felt that the Democratic Party was welcoming
(11:29):
to Black people. That rose up to forty two percent
right before the election when asked in October, after Harris
having successfully sort of mounted a campaign that looked like
she was very competitive going into election day. However, when
asked again in December after the election, that number dropped
from forty two percent back down to thirty five percent,
reversing course right and so there were significantly less people
(11:52):
saying that the Democratic Party was welcoming to Black people
after the election, showing this sense of sort of disillusionment
and apathy with party. We also asked people looking forward
whether or not they felt like a second Trump president
was going to motivate them to participate or if a
second Trump presidency would prove exhausting and they kind of
just want to be left alone. And when we ask
(12:14):
people this question, about twenty three percent said that they
were motivated compared to a whole forty three percent who
said they were going to be they felt exhausted and
wanted to be left alone. And when we looked at
that in some different breakdowns in the beauty of collecting
sort of these large data sets of just black folks,
as you can actually look at things based on age
(12:35):
and gender and have real ideas as to what's taking
place instead of having to do cuts with small sections
of data and other surveys that aren't designed to measure
black opinion. And when doing so, when it comes to
looking forward, we found that a whole fifty one percent
of black women said that they were exhausted and really
just wanted to be left alone after the election, kind
(12:56):
of building on this sentiment that you suggested where people
are really tired, right and they feel like this selection
really beat them down, building on a lot of the
memes that we see where especially black women are ready
to just you know, sit back and watch the world
burn if need be.
Speaker 3 (13:14):
A very interesting mixture of frustration, apathy, and just kind
of a lack of enthusiasm is what Ramses and I
have noticed. People being feeling hopeless has led to conversations
(13:34):
that we've noticed where there's a blatant false equivalence. You know,
people are like throwing up their hands like, hey, neither
party cares about us, which Ramses and I thought was
a dangerous trend because even if that's how you feel,
I think it's pretty obvious that one side of the
aisle is more of what we've been hearing people call
(13:57):
for years an existential threat to democracy, and the other
why do people feel black people specifically so unenthusiastic about
what the Democratic Party brings to the table currently, Because
we've seen people just kind of tapping out on the
whole process and throwing their hands up and saying aloud
(14:18):
that neither party cares about us, So why should I care?
When we see that again, one side of the aisle
is just far more dangerous than the other.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Yeah, there's two things that I want to say here.
I think first it's important to point out you're exactly right.
The danger of building this false equivalency is real, and
I think it happened before the election took place. As well,
A lot of the rhetoric around certain black people voting
for Trump, or black men in particular moving towards Trump,
rhetoric that does not bear out in the data, tried
(14:49):
to build this false equivalency and really make it seem
like there's not much difference between the two candidates or
the two parties. And although this doesn't didn't necessarily cause
people to actually vote for or Trump or vote against
the Democrats, it did drive apathy and it caused people
to stay home and to not vote altogether. We absolutely
saw that numbers suggest black turnout was down in twenty
(15:12):
twenty four compared to twenty twenty, compared to twenty sixteen,
and especially compared to the Obama years, and in states
like Georgia, the only group to have turnout fall is
black voters.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
Every other group, White voters, Asian American voters, Hispanic Latino voters,
they all saw increases in turnout from twenty twenty to
twenty twenty four. It was black voters who saw a drop.
And I really feel like that comes from building this
false equivalency. And so there's really two things here, right,
One it's the idea that the Democrats aren't doing anything
(15:47):
for black folk, and this has to be a misnomer
that is fought by breaking down some of the policy
that's taken place in real simple terms. But to do so,
you have to first meet a lot of black voters
where they are with their disillusionment. You can't kind of
talk down to people and tell them, hey, we've done
all this stuff. You should like us, Like are you dumb?
(16:07):
Why don't you know this? You have to understand that
a lot of people are working from a historical understanding
of politics where black people have been alienated and left
out for generations, and so it's not surprising that they
approach party politics with skepticism. So you have to meet
them where they are before you try and sell them
on any real accomplishments, especially with how complex a lot
(16:28):
of policies are, and it doesn't always easily translate down
to an individual's life. You might not exactly see how
some of the larger policies, especially things such as environmental
policy or healthcare policy, fit into one's everyday life. So
that's the first thing. The second thing is I think
Democrats failed to make as strong of a case they
(16:48):
could as to the dangers that Trump and the MAGA
movement represent to the Black community.
Speaker 5 (16:54):
In the surveys that I've conducted, a lot of people were.
Speaker 4 (16:57):
Not necessarily sure if Trump was going to follow through
on some of his threats. They didn't necessarily believe Project
twenty twenty five was a real thing, right, And this
again I see as more of a failure of Democrats
to really message as strongly as they possibly could, to
convince as many people that this is a real threat,
This needs our attention, and we need to vote to
(17:17):
protect ourselves from this. And all of the modeling I've
run before and since the election suggests that convincing people
that you need to vote to protect yourselves in this time,
in this political environment is the most effective and efficient
way to get people out to vote in thinking that
politics is important and relevant to their own lives.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You know, doctor Tyler, I wondered if the public, black
people and those who supported you know, Democratic candidates throughout
you know, the last let's say ten years, felt like
the party was crying wolf when it came to Project
twenty five. I said the word existential threat before, but
(17:59):
that wasn't the first time you heard that, and that
wasn't the first time A lot of voters heard that
as well.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
I think when you come and you say.
Speaker 3 (18:08):
That again, after people have already been through a Trump presidency,
they think, well, maybe it's not going to be that bad.
And the messaging about how afraid people should have been
of what the possible outcome could be with this election,
I think may have fallen on death ears because of that.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
As black people are looking.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
Forward to what we can do now, what we can
do next, and what politics and society can look like
in the future, what do black voters, black citizens, black
Americans have to look forward to as we see the
promises of Project twenty twenty five coming to life. Right
the first time that Project twenty twenty five got the
(18:50):
type of attention that we'd hoped, I think it was
Taraji p Henson at a BT Award ceremony where she
kind of threw that term out into the stratug sphere
and people started reacting to it in real time. And
you know, the Republican ticket denied and denied and denied
that they had anything to do with it, even though
that was clearly a lie. I think some people bought
(19:12):
into that, so as we look forward, how do we
deal with this sense of hopelessness and apathy and look
forward to what we can do next.
Speaker 5 (19:24):
For me, it's twofold right.
Speaker 4 (19:26):
On the one hand, it's really important that we understand
that the political dangers are real when it comes to
Project twenty twenty five, when it comes to the Trump administration,
and that we don't just kind of sit out our
hands and wait for other people to see how real
it is and to act in our behalf right. The
black community has seen time and again different electorates, different
(19:49):
populations would rather take policies that hurt themselves and take
material hurt if they feel it's going to allow for
black people to gain less right, they'd rather see the
Black community hurt than benefit themselves. And so as black people,
(20:10):
we have to really stand up and find ways to
get our voice heard. We have to look for representatives
that we support, especially black representatives, who we feel are
speaking for the community, and prop them up and get
behind them, whether it's at the local or statewide level.
I think we have to look for other ways to
have our political voice heard too, beyond just voting right.
(20:32):
We're coming to a time where voting itself is becoming
more and more tenuous, and there's going to be even
more questions about access to voting and what type of
power the vote has, And so we have to make
sure that we have our voices heard political otherwise in
other realms, right, And so we see a number of
boycotts being organized. I think those are really important to
pay attention to right to use our economic power.
Speaker 5 (20:53):
To have a voice.
Speaker 4 (20:55):
There's other ways to have protest movements, sign petitions, find
ways to continue to speak your political voice with and
beyond voting, and really make the case to those, especially
those who are disengaged, who don't follow politics, who don't
pay attention to politics, that this is really going to
be a turning point in American history when it comes
(21:18):
to the road forward for the black community, and there's
an opportunity here to continue to fight, to continue to
push forward and sort of push back the authoritarian press,
if you will, trying to move us back towards an
era of Jim Crow, an era of less rights for
the black community, rather than allowing for those rights to
(21:41):
be infringed upon and having to work for generations again
just to get back to where we are right now.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Once upon a time, it seemed like our collective voice
was more singular. We were all fighting for the same
things and one of the same outcomes. It doesn't feel
like that anymore. Before we close out this segment, I
just wanted to get your opinion and on what the
data might show regarding how we collectively feel we can
(22:15):
work together for a better future for all of us.
Speaker 4 (22:20):
Yeah, I've noticed that too, and especially when looking at
sort of connections to party politics and solidarity within political identity.
There are younger generations of black people coming up today
who are different, who are more independent, who are more
ideologically moderate, less likely to attach themselves to the Democratic
Party than older people older Black communities, And to me,
(22:43):
it comes with the relationship and the connection to the
civil rights movement, the struggle in such a way that
these stories need to be told, that connection needs to
be maintained and people need to know what we've done
for each other right to continue to build and to
bring the youth back into the same cohorts that we've
(23:04):
had for generations sticking together
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