April 24, 2025 • 45 mins
In this episode, Ryan and Jonathan Kay discuss the shifting political landscape in Canada, focusing on the recent election dynamics, the impact of immigration, and the influence of Donald Trump on Canadian politics. They explore the unique aspects of Canada's parliamentary system, the personal nature of Canadian politics, and the distinct political identity of Quebec. The discussion also touches on the future of Canadian politics in light of Trudeau's resignation and the potential for the Conservative Party to gain traction. It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gradowski. This
is episode number eighteen. And if it's the first time
you're listening, welcome, And if you've been here every week,
thank you for listening again. If you haven't listened before,
you haven't done it. Please like and subscribe on wherever
you're listening Spotify, Apple Podcast, iHeartRadio app would really appreciate that.
And if you can give me a review on top
of it, that's just a cherry on the cake. So
(00:24):
for those who have been listening, I have worked in
politics my entire life. It's the only thing I've really
know how to do. I was a journalist and a
writer for a little bit of time, and then when
I was my teenager years, my first shot was working
at Victoria's secret selling bras. So if everything goes belly up,
that's all I have to fall back on. But I
am super excited about campaigns and elections. I follow them
(00:46):
across the entire world, and we actually have our first
major elections and starting this podcast. It's not in this country,
but it is in our neighbor to the north in Canada. Yeah,
sometimes I too forget that we have a neighbor to
the North, but we do. It's up there, and it's
their first election since twenty twenty one, and it's their
first election without Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the ballot
(01:06):
leading the Liberal Party since twenty eleven. Now, I know
there's a lot of drama in American politics, especially since
the age of Trump. American elections have been very exciting
since twenty fifteen, but the Canadian election is full of drama.
I mean Canadian drama. It's not like the Sopranos are
breaking bad, but it's well, it's Canada, so it's like
a serious episode of Glee. But it's interesting. And here's
(01:29):
the backstory. Justin Trudeau has been the Prime Minister of
Canada for a decade, longer than any American president except
for Franklin Roosevelt, and under his tenure he's fundamentally altered
Canada on a permanent basis through mass immigration. When he
became Prime minister, Canada had a population of thirty five
point nine six million people close to thirty six million,
(01:49):
right say thirty six million, And by the time he left,
Canada's population increased to forty one point five million. In
proportion to America, it would be like US as adding
sixty million people during a decade when we added about
twenty five million, right, So it's substantially higher than immigration
rates in the United States, and we're talking about pedal
(02:10):
to the metal, full blown mass immigration. Remember, Canada has
a very low birth rate. Canada's official fertility rate when
Trudeau took over was one point six children per women.
It's now one point three children women. There's no natural
growth in Canada's population. Every generation of Canadians is smaller
(02:31):
than the one that came before it. The birth rate
is so low that by the end of this decade,
even with mass immigration and the alleged idea that immigrants
have so many kids, which they mostly don't anymore. That's
besides the point. But even with the immigration, the natural
growth that's birth minus deaths, will be negative numbers for Canada.
(02:52):
Immigration not only increased the overall population, but significantly changed
the racial makeup. Cana's white population is shrunk from seventy
three percent the year the Troupeau took office in twenty
sixteen to sixty eight point five percent in their last deck.
In their last census, which was twenty twenty one. It's
much lower than that now more than six hundred and
fifty thousand Southeast Asians, one hundred and fifty thousand Chinese,
(03:15):
three hundred fifty thousand Blacks, one hundred and seventy thousand Filipinos,
one hundred and seventy thousand Arabs, one hundred and thirty
thousand Latinos, and one hundred thousand West Asians have moved
to Canada and their overall quote unquote visible minority population,
that's what they call minorities who are non natives. But
visible minority population grew from nineteen percent in twenty eleven
(03:37):
to twenty six point five percent. Now, when I was
a kid, it was well less than ten percent, So
in the lifetime of a millennial, Canada's population has changed
significantly in a very short period of time. This massive
population growth has put a strain on resources and housing
because remember, while Canada is a large country, one of
the largest physical geographic countries in the world, most people
(04:01):
live in a very very small area. The average home
price in Canada has increased by more than fifty percent
over the last ten years, and it's put a strain
on the nation's socialized healthcare. Over the last nine years,
when Canada increases population by more than five point five
million people, they only added thirty eight thousand more people
(04:21):
into the medical field. The medium waytime between referral by
a general practitioner and receiving treatment in twenty fifteen in
Canada was eighteen point three weeks, which is still in
American terms, it's a very long time. In twenty twenty four,
it's over thirty weeks, according to the Fraser Institute. Think
about what this means for someone in Canada needing to
(04:41):
see a specialist. It's quite literally life or death, which
may be part of the reason why they legalize assistant suicide.
All the effects of mass immigration at this scale had
a deteriorating effect on the life of the average Canadian,
and Trudeau's approval ratings plummeted. Trudeau's Liberal Party was losing
special election after special election, even in safe seats. Right
(05:02):
before he announced his resignation, Trudeau's Liberal Party was set
to lose the next election by more than twenty points
to the Conservatives. Twenty plus point loss would effectively have
ended the Liberal Party. They would have held onto less
than twenty seats. It'd be like the Republicans winning parts
of Chicago, Maryland, New York City, Los Angeles, or like
the Democrats winning the Dakotas and Louisiana and West Texas.
(05:26):
And then two things happened that fundamentally altered this entire election. First,
as I mentioned, Trudeau resigned and was replaced by a
new leader of the Liberal Party and current Prime Minister,
Mark Karney, who is far less problematic for a lot
of Canadians and a lot of people have fewer issues
with him. So it took the pressure off the party
when an unpopular prime minister resigned, kind of like how
(05:47):
the Democrats would have lost places like New Jersey and
Virginia had Joe Biden said on the ballot. But he
was replaced by Kamala Harris, who was still in the loser,
but by a lot less than what Joe Biden would
have lost. Side, another thing happened. President Donald Trump started
talking about annexing the country, referring to Trudeau as the
governor instead of the prime minister, and openly speaking about
(06:08):
turning to our fifty first state. Then come the trade
wars and all the other rhetorics. This sent shock waves
throughout Canada, and the population rallied behind Prime Minister Carney
almost as a middle finger to Trump and the broader
Conservative movement. Air Polaverre, the head of the Conservative Party
of Canada. I'm sorry if I pushed his name, by
the way, Calm Pierre. Pierre's lead fell from twenty five
(06:30):
points in December twenty twenty five to a deficit of
losing by two to six points in most polls. It's
a thirty point turnaround in four months. It is shocking.
It's jaw dropping. This stuff doesn't happen. The Conservatives have
only led in two poles since Karney took over as
Prime Minister on March fourteen, and the Liberal Party that
(06:51):
was destined to basically end as a functional party, could
win a larger majority than it had under Trudeau in
a mere four and a half months. The electionist eft
for Monday, April twenty eighth, the day before one of
the most important days in American history, my birthday, and the
Conservative Party could make it or break it. It could
come back if the polls are wrong, especially which sometimes
(07:12):
they are. A lot of times they are, but we
don't know. Stay tuned for my next guest to discuss
whether or not the Conservative Party of Canada has the
momentum to do it.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Be right back.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
With me this week is Jonathan Kay. He is an
editor at Couilette and a Canadian, so it's great to
have someone in the program to discuss the election. Who's
up there, Jonathan, Thanks for being.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Here, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So, as I mentioned before in the show, going into
this election, the Liberal Party came back from the dead.
They went from a twenty five point deficit to to
two to six point lead depending upon what poll you believe.
Part of that is Trudeau resigning. Part of that is
Donald Trump's rhetoric. Is there something else that Americans don't
know about that has really shifted this election in such
(07:55):
a short period of time.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
No, that's pretty much it. This is going to be
a really short podcast. So look, yeah, Canada's system of government,
there's not the same level of checks and balances and
separation of powers you have in the United States. So
as a result, if you have a majority government, as
(08:17):
Trudeau effectively did, it technically had a minority, but the
party propping him up was this this left wing entity
called the NDP, and it was essentially acting as a
rubber stamp. So you have an enormous concentration of power
in the prime minister, and if the prime minister is popular,
(08:39):
the government's popular. And if the prime minister is unpopular,
the government is unpopular. And Canada has no term limits,
so the same prime minister can serve three, four, five
terms in a row. The only limit is getting elected
and moretality, you know, like I mean, you literally, I mean,
(09:03):
and sometimes you do. You have premiers and prime ministers
who really do serve beyond their ability to Yeah, And
the way things work is, I mean, sometimes you get
they lose the popular vote, but they still end up
in power because we have maybe depending on how you
(09:24):
count them, five parties in most writings buying for votes,
so you get vote splitting, and sometimes the incumbent will
get in with like thirty percent of the vote. So
as a result, you get premiers in the provinces and
prime ministers who hang on like they wait too long
to quit and.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
Didn't get a majority of the vote. I think in
the last election of the one before.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
That, his first term, his first term, he did get
a majority. And interestingly that was kind of the same phenomenon.
You had Stephen Harper, who at the time was the
conservative incumbent and had won some majority, but he by
this time. I mean it happens to every politician. Uh,
they become unpopular, People blame them for all sorts of things,
sometimes with good reason. Scandals pile up. They developed like
(10:12):
just kind of a closet full of cronies that like
they can't seem to get rid of it. It just
it happens with with politicians.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
And America I can't possibly understand.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Except America, and it never happens in they.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
In America, we never have a politician who's too old
and it clings the power for too long. It just continues.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Although that that that joke swings both ways, depending upon
if you're red and blue. But sure, yeah, sure, Uh.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Chris McConnell is literally like quote unquote stroking out in
the middle of Preston.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Well, I mean that's the thing you have, Like the
the incumbency reelection rate in the United States is so high,
and especially I think in the House of Representatives that
like I think you've got like what twenty term guys
who just kind of phone it in every two years.
And yeah, and by the way, we have kind of
a little bit equivalent of that in the writings. That's
kind of the equivalent of our districts. And anyway, all
(11:06):
of this to say, politics in Canada is often very personal.
It's it's attached to the leader, and if the leader
is popular, you know, the fortunes of the party go
with the fortunes of the leader for the most part.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
And it's a lot like the UK. It's more like
the UK than the United States.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Not sure, it's you know, it's it's a parliamentary system,
right right, And it's not only as a parliamentary system.
It's a parliamentary system in the media age and in
the social media age.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
So now I want to just prep something for the
for the audience. Canada has a first past the post
election system, which means is that correct? Am I wrong?
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah? So the way I think we're we don't have
like transferable votes or like sometimes parliamentary systems they've experimented with.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
It's not like representational like it is in like Germany.
Let's say you have you have to win your respected district.
As a Canada as well, so.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
There aren't party lists sometimes. Again, every system is different,
where like you know, you might have some candidates elected
on the basis of a party list and others represent
geographical runs. Candidate is very simple. It's in your riding.
There are more than three hundred, three hundred and eighteen
at one point, I think they added a few more.
But the idea is that in your riding, you know,
(12:19):
there's ten parties, and you know, everyone else wins eight
or nine percent of the vote, and you win like
eleven percent of the vote. That's it. You win. Yeah,
it's yeah. So it's and and again another subplot. You
have a lot of especially younger political activists, who want
proportional representation, which actually Trudeau promised last time around, and
then I forgot about anyway, I keep I keep tripping
(12:42):
over myself on tangents. But the long and short of it,
the Liberals were very much identified with Trudeau, who's extremely
unpopular for a variety of reasons. And so if you
looked at the polls a couple of months ago, when
Trudeau was still the leader of the Liberal Party and
the Prime minister, it looked like the Liberals were going
to go down to a historic defeat in the twenty
(13:04):
twenty five elections. He quit, and actually, you know, all
the evidence is he didn't quit out of his own volition.
He really thought he was going to lead the Liberals
into yet another election. But there was what was effective,
effectively a revolt in his own caucus. It was a
very genteel Canadian revolt where you know, people would say
(13:25):
to reporters, oge, I'm worried about the party under its
current leadership, and I mean, I love Trudeau to death.
You know, it's those voters.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
As an American, I can't imagine your own party forcing
a sitting president or prime minister out of afice.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
So it's I mean, it's a little different the United States.
In the United States, he really do get say, you know,
congressman and senators from Party X voting down legislation that's
supported by the president, who's also from Party X. Like
there is a little bit more independent minded. It's different,
at least in Canada's current iteration of the parliamentary system,
(14:04):
where most members of Parliament are expected to be you know,
I think it was Pierre Trudeau's memorable phrase trained seals.
You know, they sort of clap at the appointed time,
and they blew at the appointed time, and they support
the leader and they support the legislation and to the.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Extent they have a quiet revolt against Trudeau was pretty
a big deal.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
You know, it wasn't quiet. I would say it was
genteel in the sense that, yes, media leaks were weaponized,
but weaponized like they gave him kind of due warning.
Like at first it was the Quebec For complicated cultural reasons,
the Quebec caucus of all parties tends to be a
(14:45):
little bit more independent minded because they exist during their
own French media and cultural sphere. And at least the
revolt against Trudeau to some extent, started in Quebec. But
like people, it's like everywhere else. They they live and
die by the polls, and the polls suggested that a
Trudeau led the Liberals into the next election, the Liberals
(15:07):
would get trounced. And as soon as Trudeau quit, it
didn't take more than a week or two you saw
Liberal fortunes start to rebound, at least if the polls
are any guide. And you and the guy who was
you know, party establishment, and I think Trudeau himself favored
(15:27):
this guy. His name is Mark Carney. This isn't my line,
but it's accurate. He looks kind of the way a
Canadian prime minister would be depicted in a nineteen eighty
five movie about some kind of like fight between Canada
and the United States. He looks like you would kind
of expect, you know, a Canadian prime minister to look
(15:49):
very you know, he's very cuts, a dashing figure, but
also eminently forgettable. His his campaign has been somewhat vapid,
but his campaign has more less consisted of I mean,
he's a very accomplished guy. He used to be Governor
of the Bank of Canada. He went to the UK
and had the same job. His name's Mark Karney. By
all counts a nice guy. I actually know a guy
(16:11):
who who went to UH studied economics with him and
said he was perfectly, perfectly decent guy. But he you know,
his campaign has to some extent. I mean, there's three
prongs to his campaign. I hate Trump and I'll fight
against Trump, which everyone is in Canada is saying. He's
he's saying, Soto Voce, I'm not just In Trudeau. So
(16:33):
if you hate Justin Trudeau, don't worry, I'm not him.
And then he's also just kind of borrowed the political
demands of the of the Conservatives, who are the main opposition.
Well capital c Conservatives, No one, None of your American
listeners should mistake them for like actual conservatives by American standards.
(16:54):
You know, everybody in Canada supports universal healthcare, we all
support rights to abortion, we all hate but a punishment.
So like there's there's no one, there's no mainstream party
in Canada that has a platform that a red state American.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
There's a populist party in Canada doesn't ever win anything.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, it's it's this guy Maxime Bernier, who formerly was
a Conservative. But even him, like he's he's sort of
a non entity in politics. You know. I think I
think he gets like two or three percent of the
protest but which actually hurts the Conservatives. But he's more,
i would say, like kind of wind bag populist than
(17:33):
than like, you know, he doesn't have like a to
my knowledge, a well developed policy on you know a
lot of the issues that that traditionally conservatives would.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
So I want to talk about Trump in a second,
but I want to stick to Canada and Trudeau, especially
for an American audience who sometimes even for guess we
have a neighbor to the north, how much immigration under
Trudeau fundamentally altered Canada in a very real way, and
it was the number one issue for quite a long time.
Healthcare to see a doctor is significantly longer. Home prices
(18:07):
have increased substantially as you've increased the population by I
think five million over the course of nine years. How
much is immigration still play in this election? Is it
still because Pierre I'm going to pronounce his name, Yeah,
his his, he's not a he's not a Trump person
on immigration though he said we need to reduce immigration,
(18:28):
for sure. But how much is immigration still part of
the conversation as it was, let's say a year or
two ago, and it was seemed to be in all
the like Canadian press.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
One thing that's happened. I'm going to address the substance
of your question shortly, but I'll just say right off
the bat, this is one instance, as with the carbon
tax a few other things, where one of the things
that liberals have done which have made themselves more electable
is they just kind of like thrown in the towel
in this issue. Even before he resigned. Trudeau, so there's
(19:00):
a couple of I guess mid to late twenty twenty
four he recorded this this kind of odd home video
where he said, Hey, I get it, immigration levels are
too high. I'm like slashing immigration levels. There's all sorts
of sub programs, temporary worker programs and stuff like that,
and like across the board, the Liberals kind of stole
(19:21):
the plank for any opposition party that was opposed to
enormous immigration levels. They kind of just renounced their own
policy on immigration.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
And the Conservatives didn't then move further to the right.
They just stay where they were. Right.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Look, so immigration is a funny issue in Canada because interestingly,
Trudeau massively expanded the number of immigrants who come to Canada.
Even before he took power. I think Canada was immigrating
something like one percent of its population every year. So
I think something you know, even in the late Harper years,
something like three hundred thousand that went up under Trudeau.
(19:59):
I think four hundred thousand. It's tricky because there's also
temporary foreign workers and refugees in their own class. But
you had a country that was immigrating about one percent
of its population every year, and you know, in American terms,
this would be the equivalent of like four million new
immigrants to the United States every year. On top of
like refugees and people coming on pieces, and you know,
(20:22):
in American terms, it would there's just there'd be no comparison.
It would be politically untenable. And what I think it
should be should be said is when this was happening
the Harper Harper years and even the first couple of
Trudeau terms, there wasn't a huge amount of published public pushback.
To some extent was artificial because it was seen as
(20:45):
you know, it stigmatized as racists, or at least it
once was. Before the liberals renounced their own immigration policies,
the liberal friendly media accused anyone who wanted to talk
about issues being a big racist. Now suddenly it's okay.
But even among conservatives, there is not the instinctive pushback,
the reflexive pushback against immigration in the East in the
(21:06):
United States, in part because there's all sorts of industries
here that have come to depend on temporary foreign workers.
You know, I was just out in British Columbia, you know,
small city called Colonna, which you know, it's the equivalent
of I don't like ask in Colorado or something like that.
And just like every retail establishment you go into is
(21:26):
staff by temporary foreign workers. And if businesses had to
depend like you know, your average McDonald's or Burger King
or Tim Horton's or anything like that, Like if they
had to depend on just native foreign workers who are
citizens and such, that they wouldn't be able to at
least for now, they wouldn't be able to keep their
shifts staffed. However, things, as with a lot of things
(21:51):
Trudeau did, he just never knew when to say quit.
And the arithmetic just got insane. And here in Toronto
where I live, which I think the four million people
here and I think something like one hundred thousand or
more of those immigrants end up in Toronto every year.
I mean, home prices have just gone through the roof
because there's only so much land, and you just got
(22:12):
tons of people coming in, a lot of them who
have a ton of cash. Because for all it's touchy
feely reputation, Candidis, immigration laws are actually very hard headed
from an economic perspective. You know, they emphasize English and
French fluency, job skills. You get a lot of doctors
and engineers who come here. It's a points based system.
(22:34):
It's not you know, some people may.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
Explain it points based system to American Hounians who doesn't
have to you know.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Like you're you're you're an investor and you have a
lot of cash to invest or. You have job skills,
the language fluency, your your secondary schooling. It's a sense
the test, not a specialist necessarrea. But it's more or
less trying trying to bring in immigrants who will assimilately
quickly be economically productive and hit the ground running in
(23:05):
terms of either starting a business or being employed or
buying real estate. There was an investor class. Actually lost
track of what they've done with the investor class status,
but you could just come in and say, hey, I've
got ten million dollars to invest in a new business,
and it was kind of your fast track. So it
was you know, Canada's reputation on the world stage is
(23:26):
like sort of very touchy feeling, and people sometimes assume
that everything about Canada's immigration is based on like, you know,
the tired poor, the hungary family reunification, like kind of
almost quasi refugee type criteria. But that's not the case.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Right and over that time period I experienced earlier because
even though Canada is a gigantic country physically, most will
live in a very condensed area, so that much population
and wages have stagnated. In Canada, the average GDP per
capita I think was fifty three thousand dollars in two
thousand and fifteen, right Portraito took over, and it's still
(24:01):
about fifty four to fifty five thousand.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
Yeah, the economic performance. Now, I'm not an economist, I
don't know how much of this is due to immigration,
but I I mean, economists themselves will debate the impacts
of immigration on macro economies. But I will say that
a lot of politicians, including politicians on the right, were
kind of conflicted about immigration because there's a lot of
(24:26):
like a lot of my hearings around a lot of
my friends. If you already have a job and you're
already in your house, people actually kind of like immigration
in many ways. You know, when I go to the
medical clinic, sometimes the nurses they all happen to be
from Philippines. If you're if you're you're looking for like
a medical specialist, many of them are from India. As
I said entrepreneurs, I was talking to a manager this
(24:50):
place called Kelowna. Had a long conversation with a manager
at a Denny's and he and one of the things
he said is he said, look, because everybody in his restaurant,
it was clear, was from somewhere else. And I said,
you know, tell me about the labor situation here, and
he said, the thing is it's cheaper to bring in
temporary foreign workers, not just in terms of wages that
(25:12):
he said, in terms of I think the depression he
used was employment availability. So you know, they will take
any shift they've come to work, Whereas you know, someone
who's a native born Canadian, it might be like, well,
you know, I'm doing childcare that day, and I have
the side hustle on Uber and you know, I'm also
I'm studying, I'm doing this, and you know I'm doing
elder care and weekends don't work for me. And so
(25:35):
he just like, for a variety of reasons, entrepreneurs and
employers often have just found it easier to hire immigrants
and temporary for foreign workers. So you know, this happens
in the United States to a certain extent too, where
you have the business class, if you want to call
the you know, maybe it's part of a conservative constituency
(25:55):
that likes immigration and finds it does for them lower,
you know, make payroll management easier, which often does mean
paying lower wages. And if you're more working class and
you don't have a home, and you're competing with all
these new families for homes and home prices are going up,
you're competing for jobs maybe at the lower end of
the wage spectrum. You know, this dynamic will be familiar
(26:17):
to any American. So there's been a huge pushback, and
that pushback has gradually climbed into the middle socioeconomic rung.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
So it was time for medical care.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Has increased the medical care so that that's its own issue.
Since I have been in journalism, you know, since the nineties,
there's never been a time where people weren't concerned about
wait times in medical facilities. I should also say that
healthcare generally speaking, is a provincial responsibility. So now it's
(26:50):
muddled because there's you know, Canada Health Act. And as
with the United States, the federal government is plowing cash
into everything, even things that aren't federal responsibilities. So and
also just in general, the fed government government often just
gets blamed for everything. You know, you talk to people
like they want the federal government to like put a stop.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
In their trees.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Yeah, I know.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
I've done so many campaigns and they'll sit there and say,
you know, I don't like my neighbor's overgrown bush, and like, well,
this is a congressman, So.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
I I think I can talk that. You know, there's
this's I think my barber who I talk politics with,
because it's hilarious. He wants the next prime minister to
get rid of bike lanes in his neighborhood and blame
it for them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
So I want to get to Trump because Trump, really,
despite him being a foreign leader, has had an immense
effect on this election. Trumps sitting there and talking about
annexing Canada and calling Trudeau governor. How has this affected
the Canadian voter?
Speaker 2 (27:48):
So external threats always help incumbents because you know, we're humans,
which means we're we're mammals, which means you know, we
we have kin based you know, often tribal instincts, and
when there's an external threat, we it often provides like
a bonding moment within our our groups and it enhances
(28:14):
the status of our leader. I think this is part
of our evolutionary psychology. And you saw this on the
provincial level. So I happened to live on Ontario. We
have a again nominally conservative premier and he did gangbusters
in the most recent election, which was conducted amidst the
most unhinged protectionist bluster being admitted by Trump, and he
(28:39):
did great. He happened to be a conservative. But there
was this press conference where he put on like a
baseball cap that I forget what it said. It was like,
you know, screw you Trump or whatever, and it people
are like, yeah, protect us from Trump. And again he
was a conservative. He got a nice majority, and the
(29:00):
rule's got to boost because again it's an external threat.
People rally around the flag and the liberal and by
the way, my suspicion is no way to prove it.
The reason Trudeau hung around despite his horrible poll numbers
is his political instincts were correct that if Trump won
the election, that at whatever carbon blob was sitting in
(29:23):
the Prime Minister's chair at the time that happened, would
get a huge bump in the.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Polls for carbon blob.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
No, because that carbon blob would be painted red and
white and would be would protect everyone from the evil Trump.
And honestly, like, maybe this isn't something conservatives want to hear,
but you know, Trump's election has been like absolute rocket
fuel for progressive politicians who are otherwise fighting a headwind.
(29:53):
Everyone was sick of so many of the progressive causes,
and I was like, okay, finally their day is done.
And then Trump gets elected and it's like, oh great,
now you've got these progressives, you know, dawning the mantle
of patriotism, not just in Canada but Europe, saying like,
oh this is you know, where the where the thin
progressive line protecting you from trump Ism.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Well it didn't really work for the For the German
uh Liberal Party, they lost a landslide and that was
toast Trump.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
I don't followed German politics because it's so boring, okay,
And whenever I think I understand German politics, I talked
to someone that's from Germany and says, oh, but that
only works at the provincial level. That's I don't. I
don't know what accent that was.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Germany and Austria. They had elections post Trump, and the
populist did very, very well. In the center right either
came in first or second. The popular section human first
in Austria.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I'm not going to pretend I understand central European politics.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
Okay, or any European An election in Western Europe. I
think Portugal is coming up. Portugal is in a few weeks,
and I'll cover that. Yeah, I love, I love, I
love politics in a way that is probably unhealthy. So
I do follow all these countries and what else, not
minor countries, but other countries that I know no American
otherwise would know.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Possibly the capital of Portugal is Lisbon.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
True. The one thing I love about Canadian politics, if
I could just wax Poever.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
No one has ever started a sentence that way.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
I know. But the one that I find, okay, the
one I find immensely amusing that I love is Quebec
politics because Quebec, being a former French colony and then
becoming a province of had a lot of its own
independence and almost breaking away from Canada twice. They they
have their own French only politicians that really only campaign
in French speak French. Sometimes when I watch French, oh sorry,
(31:40):
when I watch Canadian debates, the French politicians will be
talking about completely and utterly different things than anybody. And
there was this comedian, and I don't know what she
was Canadian community. She was yeah, the Liberal party will
talk about increasing government, the Conserative party will about crediting government,
and the French politician will talk about producing the price
of cigarettes for children.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
So and by the way, it goes beyond that. In
terms of media culture, there's TV shows obviously Canadians have
never heard of that are like in Quebec. Everyone stops
what they're doing to watch. It's like they have their
own celebrity star systems. So they're like Quebec celebrities that
I mean, some of the Quebec celebrities escape containment, like Celenion.
(32:24):
But you know, I mean there are a few commonalities,
like hockey and stuff like that. But yeah, I mean,
so it used to be the case. I think it
was Dick Morris. I think Dick Morris gave a speech
in Toronto a couple of decades ago and said, from
his knowledge of Canadian politics, regionalism is our race where
(32:46):
But that's dated so that doesn't really exist anymore except
in Quebec. But it used to be that Alberta had
its own super distinct identity. Newfoundlands certainly absolutely had its
own distinctive identity the Atlantic provinces. Now that's been diluted
a lot because of globalization, immigration, as you know, labor mobility.
People moved to the oil fields. You know, a lot
(33:07):
of white collar workers moving around the country during COVID
just wherever they can get a home and working remote. So,
but Quebec is different because it has its own language
and culture, and you know, the equivalent would be like
if there's no real equivalent in the United States because
even your you know, your former French speaking areas like Louisiana,
(33:28):
at least since you know the early.
Speaker 1 (33:30):
It's almost in the same as Texans being Texas. Being
Texan is a personality trade within that.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
So but but you know, but that's not even that.
Like I've been you know, if you go to Austin,
I mean Austin. When you're in Austin, you might as
well be in Massachusetts.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Like I mean, they to be from Austin, they're not
from Texas. Yes, but that's the closest I have because
we don't actually.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
But there's the language thing. It's like, yeah, you don't
have to be Like imagine if everybody in Florida spoke
alligator language and they had their own alligator celebrity truth.
I mean, that would be different and like when election
time came, all they would care about is like, you know,
what are you going to do about like the shorter
devaligator food, Like it's just having your own langue, language
(34:12):
and culture go together. Quebec is Canada is a bilingual country.
It's that's one little quirk we have, although weirdly there's
no you know, people in English Canada we try and
predict this stuff. But Mark Kearney, who's French is weak
and who like didn't want to take part in the
French language debate. At first, people say, oh, this guy's
(34:35):
gonna at clauborated because it's French, is terrible. But people
I don't know in Quebec they kind of like the guy.
So I like in English Canada, there's this whole cottage
industry of trying to predict how things will play in Quebec,
and we always get it wrong.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
My last question is if you could you know, I
know what Poles say in your gut as a Canadian citizen.
Do the Conservatives have a chance to pull it out?
Or really is it liberals to lose?
Speaker 2 (35:00):
I had no idea, so I so every political prediction
I've ever made in public, since I like my ber
mitzvah has been completely wrong, and so I wrote a
you're talking to somebody who once wrote a column. Stephen
Harper came to visit This is way back before he
was Prime minister, like in the in the primordial days
of my early employment at the National Post. It was like,
(35:23):
what was it, nineteen nineties and he came to visit
the National Post at a tour board and I found
him like very cranky and condescending, and I wrote this
eight hundred word column. I was like, oh man, this
this guy thinks he's going to become prime minister with
a joke. And I started like ticking off sort of
people who I thought would make a great replacement for
Harper after his predictable flame out in the election. And
(35:44):
then he got a majority government. And this is before Twitter, thankfully,
so no one could like rub my column in my
face and say, yeah. I think people were a lot
more casual about their predictions before social media, because like
half of your brain is saying, how will this look
when it's rubbed in my face when I'm wrong? But
I remember at that moment I said, I'm never making
a prediction of political prediction, because literally, if I told
(36:06):
you that A is going to win, it means B's
going to win.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
By Alge is doing a good campaign at least.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
The problem the problem with me. I feel feel for
the guy because his main campaign plank was vote for
me or you're going to get four more years of Trudeau.
And then Trudeau says, Okay, I'm leaving, and this this
hole in the air, and Mark Karney becomes the liberal
carbon blob and it's a lot easier to campaign against this,
(36:37):
this guy who everyone hates. I mean even a lot
of liberals hated Trudeau. He was just kind of it's
something about truth. He was very dated, like this is
this social justice guy and like, you know, going on
these like drag shows and like and I'm like fairly
socially progressive, but even my gay friends were like, you know,
he'd go to Pride and act like he'd never been
in a Pride parade and just start acting out let's
(36:58):
speak like an idiot, and everyone was just sick of
the guy. The performance performed of social justice crap and
like sort of his Maudelin displays of contrition about Canada's
allegedly genocidal history. The whole act graded on everyone. And
when the day he announced that he wouldn't be running
in the next election was the day that life became
(37:22):
difficult for Polyev because that was his big A lot
of Canadian politics is like it's just you're sick of
one guy and so you vote for the other guy.
It even happens in our mayoral elections, like we had
this this uh blow dried Harvard grad named David Miller
as our mayor in Toronto, and when people were sick
(37:44):
of him, they voted for this, Like alcoholic Rube named
Rob Ford my.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Favorite Canadian Polisian of all time.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Yeah, I mean he was just like this sort of
like YouTube celebrity for all the wrong reasons. And that's
kind of what happens, is like they were sick of
one extreme, so they go for the other. And Pouliev
was hoping to benefit from that, and he had every
reason to benefit from that, and he was saved by
the Liberal rank and file who, in their very genteel
Canadian throat, clear and way, told Trudeau to take a hike,
(38:14):
which he did. And if Trudeau had hung on because
there's no real mechanism that the Liberals had available to
them to get rid of Trudeau, to force the issue realistically, like,
if Trudeau had wanted to run in the next election,
he probably could have. And that's what Pouliever I think expected,
and unfortunately he didn't get that. He got someone who
had kind of a neutral reputation who then got the
(38:37):
benefit of Trump coming in and essentially threatening to destroy
the North American economy of spite and giving a huge
shot in the arm to Canadian the Canadian left. And
I don't want to predict that the Canadian well, I
guess I do want to predict that the Liberals are
going to win because the oppoite WI happened. But like
you know, that's between Trudeau quitting and Trump getting elected.
(39:00):
That explains ninety five percent of what's happening in Canadian politics.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
Well, Johnathan K, thank you for being on this podcast.
Where can people go to read your stuff or read your
tweets anything?
Speaker 2 (39:10):
Oh, I'm on what used to be called Twitter at
John K j O n kay or you'll get more
of my mordant, acerbic, say anything bad boy Canadian social
and media offerings. But then my main gig is Quillette,
which is QUI double l E doublete It's an Australian outlet,
(39:31):
but my boss lets me publish all kinds of Canadian stuff,
assuming anyone listening to this has any appetite for you know,
usually like Americans call me when something, some huge epic
thing happens in Canada, like an election or something, but
then I don't hear from them in five years. So
it could be that like this sort of states your
(39:53):
audience until the next election. Bet who maybe we'll have
another trucker protest or something. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (39:57):
Great, Well, thank you so much for being on this podcast.
Will speak to you soon and we'll see what goes
on on Monday. Hey, we'll be right back after this.
Now it's time for the ask Me Anything segment. You
can literally ask me any kind of question. Please email
me your questions. It's always great to get more and
different opinions and different questions about broad subject issues. It's
(40:19):
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's ryanat numbers
Plural Game podcast dot com. Shoot me an email over
anything and I'll see if I know the answer, if
I could research it and give you my opinion. So
my question today was, as a Catholic, what will be
the legacy of Pope Francis, and who do you think
will be the next pope? Okay, I am very interested
(40:40):
in this question because I am a Catholic even though
I look and act and sound and everything Jewish, and
I'm from New York City. I'm a Jewish last name,
so people get confused all the time, but I am
in fact, born and raised Catholic on both sides of
my family. And hearing non Catholics do panels on radio
and television and podcasts in the last day and a
(41:00):
half or two days since he passed away has been
infuriating because they don't know what they're talking about. Most
of the Catholics know what they're talking about, but definitely
the non Catholics. They've been giving analysis over his Pope
Francis's leadership as a changing doctrine and you know how
we altered the Catholic Church and all the rest of
(41:21):
the stuff. A pope doesn't have the ability to change
doctrine on his own. That didn't happen. A pope doesn't
have the ability to change the Bible or to change
the Catechism on his own. None of that stuff actually happened.
While Pope Francis was Pope Francis who I had a
more critical opinion of, primarily because when there were big
(41:44):
issues affecting Catholics in countries that were predominantly Catholic, that
were that were that would have been a negative media
attention story for him, Like when Ireland legalized abortion, Pope
Francis was nowhere to be seen. He didn't to Ireland
a campaign against abortion. He didn't do really anything. He
didn't take a brave step whatsoever. He kind of let
(42:07):
the vote, you know. Labor Is and I got into
a fight. I remember one time with some of my
Catholic friends who said, oh, he would have been laughed
out of the country, and I was like, yeah, and
Peter died on a cross for Christ. I mean, so
what he would have been laughed out of the country.
Who cares you do what's right, especially if you are
a religious leader and a moral leader in the same
I'm trying to be as respectful as possible in the
(42:28):
same vein as Pope John Paul the Second, who really
liked good media and good press. Pope Francis really liked
good media and good press and set things that were
doctortally untrue and were in conflict with the church in
order to garner positive press. It didn't change the doctrine
of the church. It just got him positive mentions from
(42:50):
liberal media. I have a big problem with that as
a person who tries really hard to stay as close
to the faith as I use as I possibly can,
and I don't just chasing whatever, you know, the whims
of a good headline or a good news article when
I see fit. That's my big thing. His legacy is
changing the College of Cardinals. He really made it much
(43:11):
more in the same quote end quote liberal vanishm it's
not like an American liberalism, it doesn't transfer as easily,
but made it much more liberal than a lot of
young priests in the Catholic Church are. Young priests in
the Catholic Church, especially from Western countries, are much more
conservative than people of post Francis's generation, much more a
(43:35):
part of the believer in the doctrine, and there's a
conflict in generations within the priesthood. So that's his ultimate thing,
is how he's going to change how we changed the
car College of Cardinals and how that will affect the
church going forward in the future. That's really his biggest legacy.
It's not a sexy legacy, so no one's not It's
not a sexy American news headline, so no one's going
(43:57):
to really be that interested. People who hated him will
call him a communist or socialist warrior. People who loved
him will call him a uh, you know, supporter of
the poor and the downtrotted or whatever whatever have you.
But really that's really the biggest part of his legacy.
Who will be Pope next? I would love to be
Cardinal Sarah. It's probably not gonna be him. He's too old.
(44:18):
They really try not to pick someone in his age bracket.
He would have been a great pope, though that would
have ever happened. So I don't think it's gonna be
Cardinal Sarah, which by some people on the right on
social media and saying, oh it's gonna be him. It's
not going to be very, very unlikely going to be
Cardinal Sarah. He's also way too conservative, I think for
the current college of cardinals, my money, if I had
(44:38):
to bet, would probably Cardinal Pietro Pauline. He is probably
also butchered his last name like Pierre from Canada. But
Cardinal Pietro is uh basically second in line. He's probably
the safest bet, the dark horse. The only one who
probably could upset this. It would be Cardinal Pi's a
(44:59):
balla that is a person's real name. He is from
Italy and his name is pieceabala It would be like JK.
Rowling or writing cardinal names and Harry Potter. But Cardinal
piece of bala Is is from He's from Italy. But
he is the cardinal for the Middle East and very
very bravely offered his life in exchange for the hostages
(45:20):
during the during the war there over Gaza. And that's
a very honorable thing. That and a really real act
of courage on behalf of Cardinal of like that we
haven't seen very often. So that's my bet, though we'll
see what happens.
Speaker 2 (45:37):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
I don't make any decisions. I don't let the white
smoke go from the from from the Vatican.
Speaker 2 (45:43):
Anyway.
Speaker 1 (45:43):
Thank you for listening again this week. I really appreciate it.
Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast
where you get your podcast. We'll see you guys next week.
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gradowski. This
is episode number eighteen. And if it's the first time
you're listening, welcome, And if you've been here every week,
thank you for listening again. If you haven't listened before,
you haven't done it. Please like and subscribe on wherever
you're listening Spotify, Apple Podcast, iHeartRadio app would really appreciate that.
And if you can give me a review on top
of it, that's just a cherry on the cake. So
(00:24):
for those who have been listening, I have worked in
politics my entire life. It's the only thing I've really
know how to do. I was a journalist and a
writer for a little bit of time, and then when
I was my teenager years, my first shot was working
at Victoria's secret selling bras. So if everything goes belly up,
that's all I have to fall back on. But I
am super excited about campaigns and elections. I follow them
(00:46):
across the entire world, and we actually have our first
major elections and starting this podcast. It's not in this country,
but it is in our neighbor to the north in Canada. Yeah,
sometimes I too forget that we have a neighbor to
the North, but we do. It's up there, and it's
their first election since twenty twenty one, and it's their
first election without Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the ballot
(01:06):
leading the Liberal Party since twenty eleven. Now, I know
there's a lot of drama in American politics, especially since
the age of Trump. American elections have been very exciting
since twenty fifteen, but the Canadian election is full of drama.
I mean Canadian drama. It's not like the Sopranos are
breaking bad, but it's well, it's Canada, so it's like
a serious episode of Glee. But it's interesting. And here's
(01:29):
the backstory. Justin Trudeau has been the Prime Minister of
Canada for a decade, longer than any American president except
for Franklin Roosevelt, and under his tenure he's fundamentally altered
Canada on a permanent basis through mass immigration. When he
became Prime minister, Canada had a population of thirty five
point nine six million people close to thirty six million,
(01:49):
right say thirty six million, And by the time he left,
Canada's population increased to forty one point five million. In
proportion to America, it would be like US as adding
sixty million people during a decade when we added about
twenty five million, right, So it's substantially higher than immigration
rates in the United States, and we're talking about pedal
(02:10):
to the metal, full blown mass immigration. Remember, Canada has
a very low birth rate. Canada's official fertility rate when
Trudeau took over was one point six children per women.
It's now one point three children women. There's no natural
growth in Canada's population. Every generation of Canadians is smaller
(02:31):
than the one that came before it. The birth rate
is so low that by the end of this decade,
even with mass immigration and the alleged idea that immigrants
have so many kids, which they mostly don't anymore. That's
besides the point. But even with the immigration, the natural
growth that's birth minus deaths, will be negative numbers for Canada.
(02:52):
Immigration not only increased the overall population, but significantly changed
the racial makeup. Cana's white population is shrunk from seventy
three percent the year the Troupeau took office in twenty
sixteen to sixty eight point five percent in their last deck.
In their last census, which was twenty twenty one. It's
much lower than that now more than six hundred and
fifty thousand Southeast Asians, one hundred and fifty thousand Chinese,
(03:15):
three hundred fifty thousand Blacks, one hundred and seventy thousand Filipinos,
one hundred and seventy thousand Arabs, one hundred and thirty
thousand Latinos, and one hundred thousand West Asians have moved
to Canada and their overall quote unquote visible minority population,
that's what they call minorities who are non natives. But
visible minority population grew from nineteen percent in twenty eleven
(03:37):
to twenty six point five percent. Now, when I was
a kid, it was well less than ten percent, So
in the lifetime of a millennial, Canada's population has changed
significantly in a very short period of time. This massive
population growth has put a strain on resources and housing
because remember, while Canada is a large country, one of
the largest physical geographic countries in the world, most people
(04:01):
live in a very very small area. The average home
price in Canada has increased by more than fifty percent
over the last ten years, and it's put a strain
on the nation's socialized healthcare. Over the last nine years,
when Canada increases population by more than five point five
million people, they only added thirty eight thousand more people
(04:21):
into the medical field. The medium waytime between referral by
a general practitioner and receiving treatment in twenty fifteen in
Canada was eighteen point three weeks, which is still in
American terms, it's a very long time. In twenty twenty four,
it's over thirty weeks, according to the Fraser Institute. Think
about what this means for someone in Canada needing to
(04:41):
see a specialist. It's quite literally life or death, which
may be part of the reason why they legalize assistant suicide.
All the effects of mass immigration at this scale had
a deteriorating effect on the life of the average Canadian,
and Trudeau's approval ratings plummeted. Trudeau's Liberal Party was losing
special election after special election, even in safe seats. Right
(05:02):
before he announced his resignation, Trudeau's Liberal Party was set
to lose the next election by more than twenty points
to the Conservatives. Twenty plus point loss would effectively have
ended the Liberal Party. They would have held onto less
than twenty seats. It'd be like the Republicans winning parts
of Chicago, Maryland, New York City, Los Angeles, or like
the Democrats winning the Dakotas and Louisiana and West Texas.
(05:26):
And then two things happened that fundamentally altered this entire election. First,
as I mentioned, Trudeau resigned and was replaced by a
new leader of the Liberal Party and current Prime Minister,
Mark Karney, who is far less problematic for a lot
of Canadians and a lot of people have fewer issues
with him. So it took the pressure off the party
when an unpopular prime minister resigned, kind of like how
(05:47):
the Democrats would have lost places like New Jersey and
Virginia had Joe Biden said on the ballot. But he
was replaced by Kamala Harris, who was still in the loser,
but by a lot less than what Joe Biden would
have lost. Side, another thing happened. President Donald Trump started
talking about annexing the country, referring to Trudeau as the
governor instead of the prime minister, and openly speaking about
(06:08):
turning to our fifty first state. Then come the trade
wars and all the other rhetorics. This sent shock waves
throughout Canada, and the population rallied behind Prime Minister Carney
almost as a middle finger to Trump and the broader
Conservative movement. Air Polaverre, the head of the Conservative Party
of Canada. I'm sorry if I pushed his name, by
the way, Calm Pierre. Pierre's lead fell from twenty five
(06:30):
points in December twenty twenty five to a deficit of
losing by two to six points in most polls. It's
a thirty point turnaround in four months. It is shocking.
It's jaw dropping. This stuff doesn't happen. The Conservatives have
only led in two poles since Karney took over as
Prime Minister on March fourteen, and the Liberal Party that
(06:51):
was destined to basically end as a functional party, could
win a larger majority than it had under Trudeau in
a mere four and a half months. The electionist eft
for Monday, April twenty eighth, the day before one of
the most important days in American history, my birthday, and the
Conservative Party could make it or break it. It could
come back if the polls are wrong, especially which sometimes
(07:12):
they are. A lot of times they are, but we
don't know. Stay tuned for my next guest to discuss
whether or not the Conservative Party of Canada has the
momentum to do it.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Be right back.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
With me this week is Jonathan Kay. He is an
editor at Couilette and a Canadian, so it's great to
have someone in the program to discuss the election. Who's
up there, Jonathan, Thanks for being.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Here, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
So, as I mentioned before in the show, going into
this election, the Liberal Party came back from the dead.
They went from a twenty five point deficit to to
two to six point lead depending upon what poll you believe.
Part of that is Trudeau resigning. Part of that is
Donald Trump's rhetoric. Is there something else that Americans don't
know about that has really shifted this election in such
(07:55):
a short period of time.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
No, that's pretty much it. This is going to be
a really short podcast. So look, yeah, Canada's system of government,
there's not the same level of checks and balances and
separation of powers you have in the United States. So
as a result, if you have a majority government, as
(08:17):
Trudeau effectively did, it technically had a minority, but the
party propping him up was this this left wing entity
called the NDP, and it was essentially acting as a
rubber stamp. So you have an enormous concentration of power
in the prime minister, and if the prime minister is popular,
(08:39):
the government's popular. And if the prime minister is unpopular,
the government is unpopular. And Canada has no term limits,
so the same prime minister can serve three, four, five
terms in a row. The only limit is getting elected
and moretality, you know, like I mean, you literally, I mean,
(09:03):
and sometimes you do. You have premiers and prime ministers
who really do serve beyond their ability to Yeah, And
the way things work is, I mean, sometimes you get
they lose the popular vote, but they still end up
in power because we have maybe depending on how you
(09:24):
count them, five parties in most writings buying for votes,
so you get vote splitting, and sometimes the incumbent will
get in with like thirty percent of the vote. So
as a result, you get premiers in the provinces and
prime ministers who hang on like they wait too long
to quit and.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
Didn't get a majority of the vote. I think in
the last election of the one before.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
That, his first term, his first term, he did get
a majority. And interestingly that was kind of the same phenomenon.
You had Stephen Harper, who at the time was the
conservative incumbent and had won some majority, but he by
this time. I mean it happens to every politician. Uh,
they become unpopular, People blame them for all sorts of things,
sometimes with good reason. Scandals pile up. They developed like
(10:12):
just kind of a closet full of cronies that like
they can't seem to get rid of it. It just
it happens with with politicians.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
And America I can't possibly understand.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Except America, and it never happens in they.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
In America, we never have a politician who's too old
and it clings the power for too long. It just continues.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Although that that that joke swings both ways, depending upon
if you're red and blue. But sure, yeah, sure, Uh.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Chris McConnell is literally like quote unquote stroking out in
the middle of Preston.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Well, I mean that's the thing you have, Like the
the incumbency reelection rate in the United States is so high,
and especially I think in the House of Representatives that
like I think you've got like what twenty term guys
who just kind of phone it in every two years.
And yeah, and by the way, we have kind of
a little bit equivalent of that in the writings. That's
kind of the equivalent of our districts. And anyway, all
(11:06):
of this to say, politics in Canada is often very personal.
It's it's attached to the leader, and if the leader
is popular, you know, the fortunes of the party go
with the fortunes of the leader for the most part.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
And it's a lot like the UK. It's more like
the UK than the United States.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Not sure, it's you know, it's it's a parliamentary system,
right right, And it's not only as a parliamentary system.
It's a parliamentary system in the media age and in
the social media age.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
So now I want to just prep something for the
for the audience. Canada has a first past the post
election system, which means is that correct? Am I wrong?
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah? So the way I think we're we don't have
like transferable votes or like sometimes parliamentary systems they've experimented with.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
It's not like representational like it is in like Germany.
Let's say you have you have to win your respected district.
As a Canada as well, so.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
There aren't party lists sometimes. Again, every system is different,
where like you know, you might have some candidates elected
on the basis of a party list and others represent
geographical runs. Candidate is very simple. It's in your riding.
There are more than three hundred, three hundred and eighteen
at one point, I think they added a few more.
But the idea is that in your riding, you know,
(12:19):
there's ten parties, and you know, everyone else wins eight
or nine percent of the vote, and you win like
eleven percent of the vote. That's it. You win. Yeah,
it's yeah. So it's and and again another subplot. You
have a lot of especially younger political activists, who want
proportional representation, which actually Trudeau promised last time around, and
then I forgot about anyway, I keep I keep tripping
(12:42):
over myself on tangents. But the long and short of it,
the Liberals were very much identified with Trudeau, who's extremely
unpopular for a variety of reasons. And so if you
looked at the polls a couple of months ago, when
Trudeau was still the leader of the Liberal Party and
the Prime minister, it looked like the Liberals were going
to go down to a historic defeat in the twenty
(13:04):
twenty five elections. He quit, and actually, you know, all
the evidence is he didn't quit out of his own volition.
He really thought he was going to lead the Liberals
into yet another election. But there was what was effective,
effectively a revolt in his own caucus. It was a
very genteel Canadian revolt where you know, people would say
(13:25):
to reporters, oge, I'm worried about the party under its
current leadership, and I mean, I love Trudeau to death.
You know, it's those voters.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
As an American, I can't imagine your own party forcing
a sitting president or prime minister out of afice.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
So it's I mean, it's a little different the United States.
In the United States, he really do get say, you know,
congressman and senators from Party X voting down legislation that's
supported by the president, who's also from Party X. Like
there is a little bit more independent minded. It's different,
at least in Canada's current iteration of the parliamentary system,
(14:04):
where most members of Parliament are expected to be you know,
I think it was Pierre Trudeau's memorable phrase trained seals.
You know, they sort of clap at the appointed time,
and they blew at the appointed time, and they support
the leader and they support the legislation and to the.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Extent they have a quiet revolt against Trudeau was pretty
a big deal.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
You know, it wasn't quiet. I would say it was
genteel in the sense that, yes, media leaks were weaponized,
but weaponized like they gave him kind of due warning.
Like at first it was the Quebec For complicated cultural reasons,
the Quebec caucus of all parties tends to be a
(14:45):
little bit more independent minded because they exist during their
own French media and cultural sphere. And at least the
revolt against Trudeau to some extent, started in Quebec. But
like people, it's like everywhere else. They they live and
die by the polls, and the polls suggested that a
Trudeau led the Liberals into the next election, the Liberals
(15:07):
would get trounced. And as soon as Trudeau quit, it
didn't take more than a week or two you saw
Liberal fortunes start to rebound, at least if the polls
are any guide. And you and the guy who was
you know, party establishment, and I think Trudeau himself favored
(15:27):
this guy. His name is Mark Carney. This isn't my line,
but it's accurate. He looks kind of the way a
Canadian prime minister would be depicted in a nineteen eighty
five movie about some kind of like fight between Canada
and the United States. He looks like you would kind
of expect, you know, a Canadian prime minister to look
(15:49):
very you know, he's very cuts, a dashing figure, but
also eminently forgettable. His his campaign has been somewhat vapid,
but his campaign has more less consisted of I mean,
he's a very accomplished guy. He used to be Governor
of the Bank of Canada. He went to the UK
and had the same job. His name's Mark Karney. By
all counts a nice guy. I actually know a guy
(16:11):
who who went to UH studied economics with him and
said he was perfectly, perfectly decent guy. But he you know,
his campaign has to some extent. I mean, there's three
prongs to his campaign. I hate Trump and I'll fight
against Trump, which everyone is in Canada is saying. He's
he's saying, Soto Voce, I'm not just In Trudeau. So
(16:33):
if you hate Justin Trudeau, don't worry, I'm not him.
And then he's also just kind of borrowed the political
demands of the of the Conservatives, who are the main opposition.
Well capital c Conservatives, No one, None of your American
listeners should mistake them for like actual conservatives by American standards.
(16:54):
You know, everybody in Canada supports universal healthcare, we all
support rights to abortion, we all hate but a punishment.
So like there's there's no one, there's no mainstream party
in Canada that has a platform that a red state American.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
There's a populist party in Canada doesn't ever win anything.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, it's it's this guy Maxime Bernier, who formerly was
a Conservative. But even him, like he's he's sort of
a non entity in politics. You know. I think I
think he gets like two or three percent of the
protest but which actually hurts the Conservatives. But he's more,
i would say, like kind of wind bag populist than
(17:33):
than like, you know, he doesn't have like a to
my knowledge, a well developed policy on you know a
lot of the issues that that traditionally conservatives would.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
So I want to talk about Trump in a second,
but I want to stick to Canada and Trudeau, especially
for an American audience who sometimes even for guess we
have a neighbor to the north, how much immigration under
Trudeau fundamentally altered Canada in a very real way, and
it was the number one issue for quite a long time.
Healthcare to see a doctor is significantly longer. Home prices
(18:07):
have increased substantially as you've increased the population by I
think five million over the course of nine years. How
much is immigration still play in this election? Is it
still because Pierre I'm going to pronounce his name, Yeah,
his his, he's not a he's not a Trump person
on immigration though he said we need to reduce immigration,
(18:28):
for sure. But how much is immigration still part of
the conversation as it was, let's say a year or
two ago, and it was seemed to be in all
the like Canadian press.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
One thing that's happened. I'm going to address the substance
of your question shortly, but I'll just say right off
the bat, this is one instance, as with the carbon
tax a few other things, where one of the things
that liberals have done which have made themselves more electable
is they just kind of like thrown in the towel
in this issue. Even before he resigned. Trudeau, so there's
(19:00):
a couple of I guess mid to late twenty twenty
four he recorded this this kind of odd home video
where he said, Hey, I get it, immigration levels are
too high. I'm like slashing immigration levels. There's all sorts
of sub programs, temporary worker programs and stuff like that,
and like across the board, the Liberals kind of stole
(19:21):
the plank for any opposition party that was opposed to
enormous immigration levels. They kind of just renounced their own
policy on immigration.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
And the Conservatives didn't then move further to the right.
They just stay where they were. Right.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Look, so immigration is a funny issue in Canada because interestingly,
Trudeau massively expanded the number of immigrants who come to Canada.
Even before he took power. I think Canada was immigrating
something like one percent of its population every year. So
I think something you know, even in the late Harper years,
something like three hundred thousand that went up under Trudeau.
(19:59):
I think four hundred thousand. It's tricky because there's also
temporary foreign workers and refugees in their own class. But
you had a country that was immigrating about one percent
of its population every year, and you know, in American terms,
this would be the equivalent of like four million new
immigrants to the United States every year. On top of
like refugees and people coming on pieces, and you know,
(20:22):
in American terms, it would there's just there'd be no comparison.
It would be politically untenable. And what I think it
should be should be said is when this was happening
the Harper Harper years and even the first couple of
Trudeau terms, there wasn't a huge amount of published public pushback.
To some extent was artificial because it was seen as
(20:45):
you know, it stigmatized as racists, or at least it
once was. Before the liberals renounced their own immigration policies,
the liberal friendly media accused anyone who wanted to talk
about issues being a big racist. Now suddenly it's okay.
But even among conservatives, there is not the instinctive pushback,
the reflexive pushback against immigration in the East in the
(21:06):
United States, in part because there's all sorts of industries
here that have come to depend on temporary foreign workers.
You know, I was just out in British Columbia, you know,
small city called Colonna, which you know, it's the equivalent
of I don't like ask in Colorado or something like that.
And just like every retail establishment you go into is
(21:26):
staff by temporary foreign workers. And if businesses had to
depend like you know, your average McDonald's or Burger King
or Tim Horton's or anything like that, Like if they
had to depend on just native foreign workers who are
citizens and such, that they wouldn't be able to at
least for now, they wouldn't be able to keep their
shifts staffed. However, things, as with a lot of things
(21:51):
Trudeau did, he just never knew when to say quit.
And the arithmetic just got insane. And here in Toronto
where I live, which I think the four million people
here and I think something like one hundred thousand or
more of those immigrants end up in Toronto every year.
I mean, home prices have just gone through the roof
because there's only so much land, and you just got
(22:12):
tons of people coming in, a lot of them who
have a ton of cash. Because for all it's touchy
feely reputation, Candidis, immigration laws are actually very hard headed
from an economic perspective. You know, they emphasize English and
French fluency, job skills. You get a lot of doctors
and engineers who come here. It's a points based system.
(22:34):
It's not you know, some people may.
Speaker 1 (22:37):
Explain it points based system to American Hounians who doesn't
have to you know.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Like you're you're you're an investor and you have a
lot of cash to invest or. You have job skills,
the language fluency, your your secondary schooling. It's a sense
the test, not a specialist necessarrea. But it's more or
less trying trying to bring in immigrants who will assimilately
quickly be economically productive and hit the ground running in
(23:05):
terms of either starting a business or being employed or
buying real estate. There was an investor class. Actually lost
track of what they've done with the investor class status,
but you could just come in and say, hey, I've
got ten million dollars to invest in a new business,
and it was kind of your fast track. So it
was you know, Canada's reputation on the world stage is
(23:26):
like sort of very touchy feeling, and people sometimes assume
that everything about Canada's immigration is based on like, you know,
the tired poor, the hungary family reunification, like kind of
almost quasi refugee type criteria. But that's not the case.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Right and over that time period I experienced earlier because
even though Canada is a gigantic country physically, most will
live in a very condensed area, so that much population
and wages have stagnated. In Canada, the average GDP per
capita I think was fifty three thousand dollars in two
thousand and fifteen, right Portraito took over, and it's still
(24:01):
about fifty four to fifty five thousand.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
Yeah, the economic performance. Now, I'm not an economist, I
don't know how much of this is due to immigration,
but I I mean, economists themselves will debate the impacts
of immigration on macro economies. But I will say that
a lot of politicians, including politicians on the right, were
kind of conflicted about immigration because there's a lot of
(24:26):
like a lot of my hearings around a lot of
my friends. If you already have a job and you're
already in your house, people actually kind of like immigration
in many ways. You know, when I go to the
medical clinic, sometimes the nurses they all happen to be
from Philippines. If you're if you're you're looking for like
a medical specialist, many of them are from India. As
I said entrepreneurs, I was talking to a manager this
(24:50):
place called Kelowna. Had a long conversation with a manager
at a Denny's and he and one of the things
he said is he said, look, because everybody in his restaurant,
it was clear, was from somewhere else. And I said,
you know, tell me about the labor situation here, and
he said, the thing is it's cheaper to bring in
temporary foreign workers, not just in terms of wages that
(25:12):
he said, in terms of I think the depression he
used was employment availability. So you know, they will take
any shift they've come to work, Whereas you know, someone
who's a native born Canadian, it might be like, well,
you know, I'm doing childcare that day, and I have
the side hustle on Uber and you know, I'm also
I'm studying, I'm doing this, and you know I'm doing
elder care and weekends don't work for me. And so
(25:35):
he just like, for a variety of reasons, entrepreneurs and
employers often have just found it easier to hire immigrants
and temporary for foreign workers. So you know, this happens
in the United States to a certain extent too, where
you have the business class, if you want to call
the you know, maybe it's part of a conservative constituency
(25:55):
that likes immigration and finds it does for them lower,
you know, make payroll management easier, which often does mean
paying lower wages. And if you're more working class and
you don't have a home, and you're competing with all
these new families for homes and home prices are going up,
you're competing for jobs maybe at the lower end of
the wage spectrum. You know, this dynamic will be familiar
(26:17):
to any American. So there's been a huge pushback, and
that pushback has gradually climbed into the middle socioeconomic rung.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
So it was time for medical care.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
Has increased the medical care so that that's its own issue.
Since I have been in journalism, you know, since the nineties,
there's never been a time where people weren't concerned about
wait times in medical facilities. I should also say that
healthcare generally speaking, is a provincial responsibility. So now it's
(26:50):
muddled because there's you know, Canada Health Act. And as
with the United States, the federal government is plowing cash
into everything, even things that aren't federal responsibilities. So and
also just in general, the fed government government often just
gets blamed for everything. You know, you talk to people
like they want the federal government to like put a stop.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
In their trees.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Yeah, I know.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
I've done so many campaigns and they'll sit there and say,
you know, I don't like my neighbor's overgrown bush, and like, well,
this is a congressman, So.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
I I think I can talk that. You know, there's
this's I think my barber who I talk politics with,
because it's hilarious. He wants the next prime minister to
get rid of bike lanes in his neighborhood and blame
it for them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
So I want to get to Trump because Trump, really,
despite him being a foreign leader, has had an immense
effect on this election. Trumps sitting there and talking about
annexing Canada and calling Trudeau governor. How has this affected
the Canadian voter?
Speaker 2 (27:48):
So external threats always help incumbents because you know, we're humans,
which means we're we're mammals, which means you know, we
we have kin based you know, often tribal instincts, and
when there's an external threat, we it often provides like
a bonding moment within our our groups and it enhances
(28:14):
the status of our leader. I think this is part
of our evolutionary psychology. And you saw this on the
provincial level. So I happened to live on Ontario. We
have a again nominally conservative premier and he did gangbusters
in the most recent election, which was conducted amidst the
most unhinged protectionist bluster being admitted by Trump, and he
(28:39):
did great. He happened to be a conservative. But there
was this press conference where he put on like a
baseball cap that I forget what it said. It was like,
you know, screw you Trump or whatever, and it people
are like, yeah, protect us from Trump. And again he
was a conservative. He got a nice majority, and the
(29:00):
rule's got to boost because again it's an external threat.
People rally around the flag and the liberal and by
the way, my suspicion is no way to prove it.
The reason Trudeau hung around despite his horrible poll numbers
is his political instincts were correct that if Trump won
the election, that at whatever carbon blob was sitting in
(29:23):
the Prime Minister's chair at the time that happened, would
get a huge bump in the.
Speaker 1 (29:27):
Polls for carbon blob.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
No, because that carbon blob would be painted red and
white and would be would protect everyone from the evil Trump.
And honestly, like, maybe this isn't something conservatives want to hear,
but you know, Trump's election has been like absolute rocket
fuel for progressive politicians who are otherwise fighting a headwind.
(29:53):
Everyone was sick of so many of the progressive causes,
and I was like, okay, finally their day is done.
And then Trump gets elected and it's like, oh great,
now you've got these progressives, you know, dawning the mantle
of patriotism, not just in Canada but Europe, saying like,
oh this is you know, where the where the thin
progressive line protecting you from trump Ism.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Well it didn't really work for the For the German
uh Liberal Party, they lost a landslide and that was
toast Trump.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
I don't followed German politics because it's so boring, okay,
And whenever I think I understand German politics, I talked
to someone that's from Germany and says, oh, but that
only works at the provincial level. That's I don't. I
don't know what accent that was.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Germany and Austria. They had elections post Trump, and the
populist did very, very well. In the center right either
came in first or second. The popular section human first
in Austria.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I'm not going to pretend I understand central European politics.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
Okay, or any European An election in Western Europe. I
think Portugal is coming up. Portugal is in a few weeks,
and I'll cover that. Yeah, I love, I love, I
love politics in a way that is probably unhealthy. So
I do follow all these countries and what else, not
minor countries, but other countries that I know no American
otherwise would know.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
Possibly the capital of Portugal is Lisbon.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
True. The one thing I love about Canadian politics, if
I could just wax Poever.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
No one has ever started a sentence that way.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
I know. But the one that I find, okay, the
one I find immensely amusing that I love is Quebec
politics because Quebec, being a former French colony and then
becoming a province of had a lot of its own
independence and almost breaking away from Canada twice. They they
have their own French only politicians that really only campaign
in French speak French. Sometimes when I watch French, oh sorry,
(31:40):
when I watch Canadian debates, the French politicians will be
talking about completely and utterly different things than anybody. And
there was this comedian, and I don't know what she
was Canadian community. She was yeah, the Liberal party will
talk about increasing government, the Conserative party will about crediting government,
and the French politician will talk about producing the price
of cigarettes for children.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
So and by the way, it goes beyond that. In
terms of media culture, there's TV shows obviously Canadians have
never heard of that are like in Quebec. Everyone stops
what they're doing to watch. It's like they have their
own celebrity star systems. So they're like Quebec celebrities that
I mean, some of the Quebec celebrities escape containment, like Celenion.
(32:24):
But you know, I mean there are a few commonalities,
like hockey and stuff like that. But yeah, I mean,
so it used to be the case. I think it
was Dick Morris. I think Dick Morris gave a speech
in Toronto a couple of decades ago and said, from
his knowledge of Canadian politics, regionalism is our race where
(32:46):
But that's dated so that doesn't really exist anymore except
in Quebec. But it used to be that Alberta had
its own super distinct identity. Newfoundlands certainly absolutely had its
own distinctive identity the Atlantic provinces. Now that's been diluted
a lot because of globalization, immigration, as you know, labor mobility.
People moved to the oil fields. You know, a lot
(33:07):
of white collar workers moving around the country during COVID
just wherever they can get a home and working remote. So,
but Quebec is different because it has its own language
and culture, and you know, the equivalent would be like
if there's no real equivalent in the United States because
even your you know, your former French speaking areas like Louisiana,
(33:28):
at least since you know the early.
Speaker 1 (33:30):
It's almost in the same as Texans being Texas. Being
Texan is a personality trade within that.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
So but but you know, but that's not even that.
Like I've been you know, if you go to Austin,
I mean Austin. When you're in Austin, you might as
well be in Massachusetts.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Like I mean, they to be from Austin, they're not
from Texas. Yes, but that's the closest I have because
we don't actually.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
But there's the language thing. It's like, yeah, you don't
have to be Like imagine if everybody in Florida spoke
alligator language and they had their own alligator celebrity truth.
I mean, that would be different and like when election
time came, all they would care about is like, you know,
what are you going to do about like the shorter
devaligator food, Like it's just having your own langue, language
(34:12):
and culture go together. Quebec is Canada is a bilingual country.
It's that's one little quirk we have, although weirdly there's
no you know, people in English Canada we try and
predict this stuff. But Mark Kearney, who's French is weak
and who like didn't want to take part in the
French language debate. At first, people say, oh, this guy's
(34:35):
gonna at clauborated because it's French, is terrible. But people
I don't know in Quebec they kind of like the guy.
So I like in English Canada, there's this whole cottage
industry of trying to predict how things will play in Quebec,
and we always get it wrong.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
My last question is if you could you know, I
know what Poles say in your gut as a Canadian citizen.
Do the Conservatives have a chance to pull it out?
Or really is it liberals to lose?
Speaker 2 (35:00):
I had no idea, so I so every political prediction
I've ever made in public, since I like my ber
mitzvah has been completely wrong, and so I wrote a
you're talking to somebody who once wrote a column. Stephen
Harper came to visit This is way back before he
was Prime minister, like in the in the primordial days
of my early employment at the National Post. It was like,
(35:23):
what was it, nineteen nineties and he came to visit
the National Post at a tour board and I found
him like very cranky and condescending, and I wrote this
eight hundred word column. I was like, oh man, this
this guy thinks he's going to become prime minister with
a joke. And I started like ticking off sort of
people who I thought would make a great replacement for
Harper after his predictable flame out in the election. And
(35:44):
then he got a majority government. And this is before Twitter, thankfully,
so no one could like rub my column in my
face and say, yeah. I think people were a lot
more casual about their predictions before social media, because like
half of your brain is saying, how will this look
when it's rubbed in my face when I'm wrong? But
I remember at that moment I said, I'm never making
a prediction of political prediction, because literally, if I told
(36:06):
you that A is going to win, it means B's
going to win.
Speaker 1 (36:08):
By Alge is doing a good campaign at least.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
The problem the problem with me. I feel feel for
the guy because his main campaign plank was vote for
me or you're going to get four more years of Trudeau.
And then Trudeau says, Okay, I'm leaving, and this this
hole in the air, and Mark Karney becomes the liberal
carbon blob and it's a lot easier to campaign against this,
(36:37):
this guy who everyone hates. I mean even a lot
of liberals hated Trudeau. He was just kind of it's
something about truth. He was very dated, like this is
this social justice guy and like, you know, going on
these like drag shows and like and I'm like fairly
socially progressive, but even my gay friends were like, you know,
he'd go to Pride and act like he'd never been
in a Pride parade and just start acting out let's
(36:58):
speak like an idiot, and everyone was just sick of
the guy. The performance performed of social justice crap and
like sort of his Maudelin displays of contrition about Canada's
allegedly genocidal history. The whole act graded on everyone. And
when the day he announced that he wouldn't be running
in the next election was the day that life became
(37:22):
difficult for Polyev because that was his big A lot
of Canadian politics is like it's just you're sick of
one guy and so you vote for the other guy.
It even happens in our mayoral elections, like we had
this this uh blow dried Harvard grad named David Miller
as our mayor in Toronto, and when people were sick
(37:44):
of him, they voted for this, Like alcoholic Rube named
Rob Ford my.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Favorite Canadian Polisian of all time.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Yeah, I mean he was just like this sort of
like YouTube celebrity for all the wrong reasons. And that's
kind of what happens, is like they were sick of
one extreme, so they go for the other. And Pouliev
was hoping to benefit from that, and he had every
reason to benefit from that, and he was saved by
the Liberal rank and file who, in their very genteel
Canadian throat, clear and way, told Trudeau to take a hike,
(38:14):
which he did. And if Trudeau had hung on because
there's no real mechanism that the Liberals had available to
them to get rid of Trudeau, to force the issue realistically, like,
if Trudeau had wanted to run in the next election,
he probably could have. And that's what Pouliever I think expected,
and unfortunately he didn't get that. He got someone who
had kind of a neutral reputation who then got the
(38:37):
benefit of Trump coming in and essentially threatening to destroy
the North American economy of spite and giving a huge
shot in the arm to Canadian the Canadian left. And
I don't want to predict that the Canadian well, I
guess I do want to predict that the Liberals are
going to win because the oppoite WI happened. But like
you know, that's between Trudeau quitting and Trump getting elected.
(39:00):
That explains ninety five percent of what's happening in Canadian politics.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
Well, Johnathan K, thank you for being on this podcast.
Where can people go to read your stuff or read your
tweets anything?
Speaker 2 (39:10):
Oh, I'm on what used to be called Twitter at
John K j O n kay or you'll get more
of my mordant, acerbic, say anything bad boy Canadian social
and media offerings. But then my main gig is Quillette,
which is QUI double l E doublete It's an Australian outlet,
(39:31):
but my boss lets me publish all kinds of Canadian stuff,
assuming anyone listening to this has any appetite for you know,
usually like Americans call me when something, some huge epic
thing happens in Canada, like an election or something, but
then I don't hear from them in five years. So
it could be that like this sort of states your
(39:53):
audience until the next election. Bet who maybe we'll have
another trucker protest or something. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (39:57):
Great, Well, thank you so much for being on this podcast.
Will speak to you soon and we'll see what goes
on on Monday. Hey, we'll be right back after this.
Now it's time for the ask Me Anything segment. You
can literally ask me any kind of question. Please email
me your questions. It's always great to get more and
different opinions and different questions about broad subject issues. It's
(40:19):
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's ryanat numbers
Plural Game podcast dot com. Shoot me an email over
anything and I'll see if I know the answer, if
I could research it and give you my opinion. So
my question today was, as a Catholic, what will be
the legacy of Pope Francis, and who do you think
will be the next pope? Okay, I am very interested
(40:40):
in this question because I am a Catholic even though
I look and act and sound and everything Jewish, and
I'm from New York City. I'm a Jewish last name,
so people get confused all the time, but I am
in fact, born and raised Catholic on both sides of
my family. And hearing non Catholics do panels on radio
and television and podcasts in the last day and a
(41:00):
half or two days since he passed away has been
infuriating because they don't know what they're talking about. Most
of the Catholics know what they're talking about, but definitely
the non Catholics. They've been giving analysis over his Pope
Francis's leadership as a changing doctrine and you know how
we altered the Catholic Church and all the rest of
(41:21):
the stuff. A pope doesn't have the ability to change
doctrine on his own. That didn't happen. A pope doesn't
have the ability to change the Bible or to change
the Catechism on his own. None of that stuff actually happened.
While Pope Francis was Pope Francis who I had a
more critical opinion of, primarily because when there were big
(41:44):
issues affecting Catholics in countries that were predominantly Catholic, that
were that were that would have been a negative media
attention story for him, Like when Ireland legalized abortion, Pope
Francis was nowhere to be seen. He didn't to Ireland
a campaign against abortion. He didn't do really anything. He
didn't take a brave step whatsoever. He kind of let
(42:07):
the vote, you know. Labor Is and I got into
a fight. I remember one time with some of my
Catholic friends who said, oh, he would have been laughed
out of the country, and I was like, yeah, and
Peter died on a cross for Christ. I mean, so
what he would have been laughed out of the country.
Who cares you do what's right, especially if you are
a religious leader and a moral leader in the same
I'm trying to be as respectful as possible in the
(42:28):
same vein as Pope John Paul the Second, who really
liked good media and good press. Pope Francis really liked
good media and good press and set things that were
doctortally untrue and were in conflict with the church in
order to garner positive press. It didn't change the doctrine
of the church. It just got him positive mentions from
(42:50):
liberal media. I have a big problem with that as
a person who tries really hard to stay as close
to the faith as I use as I possibly can,
and I don't just chasing whatever, you know, the whims
of a good headline or a good news article when
I see fit. That's my big thing. His legacy is
changing the College of Cardinals. He really made it much
(43:11):
more in the same quote end quote liberal vanishm it's
not like an American liberalism, it doesn't transfer as easily,
but made it much more liberal than a lot of
young priests in the Catholic Church are. Young priests in
the Catholic Church, especially from Western countries, are much more
conservative than people of post Francis's generation, much more a
(43:35):
part of the believer in the doctrine, and there's a
conflict in generations within the priesthood. So that's his ultimate thing,
is how he's going to change how we changed the
car College of Cardinals and how that will affect the
church going forward in the future. That's really his biggest legacy.
It's not a sexy legacy, so no one's not It's
not a sexy American news headline, so no one's going
(43:57):
to really be that interested. People who hated him will
call him a communist or socialist warrior. People who loved
him will call him a uh, you know, supporter of
the poor and the downtrotted or whatever whatever have you.
But really that's really the biggest part of his legacy.
Who will be Pope next? I would love to be
Cardinal Sarah. It's probably not gonna be him. He's too old.
(44:18):
They really try not to pick someone in his age bracket.
He would have been a great pope, though that would
have ever happened. So I don't think it's gonna be
Cardinal Sarah, which by some people on the right on
social media and saying, oh it's gonna be him. It's
not going to be very, very unlikely going to be
Cardinal Sarah. He's also way too conservative, I think for
the current college of cardinals, my money, if I had
(44:38):
to bet, would probably Cardinal Pietro Pauline. He is probably
also butchered his last name like Pierre from Canada. But
Cardinal Pietro is uh basically second in line. He's probably
the safest bet, the dark horse. The only one who
probably could upset this. It would be Cardinal Pi's a
(44:59):
balla that is a person's real name. He is from
Italy and his name is pieceabala It would be like JK.
Rowling or writing cardinal names and Harry Potter. But Cardinal
piece of bala Is is from He's from Italy. But
he is the cardinal for the Middle East and very
very bravely offered his life in exchange for the hostages
(45:20):
during the during the war there over Gaza. And that's
a very honorable thing. That and a really real act
of courage on behalf of Cardinal of like that we
haven't seen very often. So that's my bet, though we'll
see what happens.
Speaker 2 (45:37):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (45:37):
I don't make any decisions. I don't let the white
smoke go from the from from the Vatican.
Speaker 2 (45:43):
Anyway.
Speaker 1 (45:43):
Thank you for listening again this week. I really appreciate it.
Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast
where you get your podcast. We'll see you guys next week.
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Buck Sexton
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