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April 24, 2025 14 mins

The market seems to be climbing back, we will visit with economist and money wiz David Bahnsen on how long it will last.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Previously on your Morning show with Michael dil Choono.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, David Bonson's here, let's recap what we've been
talking about all morning long. The market wouldn't be up
fifteen hundred points in the last two days if Donald
Trump wasn't brilliant enough to do tariffs. Tariffs are always smart.
You can teariff your way to four oh one case success.
Good morning, David. I'm sure you agree with all of that.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
Yes, I was enjoying listening to you guys off air.

Speaker 4 (00:26):
I think this is a good plan to uh to
talk about the brilliance of tariffs and how when something
goes down six thousand points and then goes fifteen hundred points.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Actually, what you missed was net right. What you missed
was we were the three of us during the newsbreak.
We're going what could I possibly start the show with
that would get David to yell at me? And that
was what I came up with. That is not what
we've been talking about.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
I don't yell about MAGA math.

Speaker 4 (00:52):
If people believed that the minus six plus two is
a positive.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
It's a positive.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
No.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
But seriously, you know we often and I learned from you,
so one of the things you would tell me is no,
the market isn't attached to news cycles. But boy, when
it comes to tariffs, it seems like it is. The
minute the present damped down any rumors that he would
get rid of the FED chair, the minute he talked
about deals are coming in, we'll work something out which China.

Speaker 3 (01:21):
But he can't down.

Speaker 4 (01:21):
Rumors, you mean, like when he explicitly said it and
then that.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Rumor, well, yeah, no, he said it, and then he
backed off of it. But I mean, you know, in
other words, got everybody. It does seem like on tariffs
the market does react.

Speaker 3 (01:35):
Well, I know, but nobody.

Speaker 4 (01:37):
Has ever said that markets don't respond to news cycles.

Speaker 3 (01:40):
What I say constantly.

Speaker 5 (01:43):
Is that the news cycles are the short term elements
of markets waging sentiment, and that investors are investing in
the long term element of markets waging earnings, so that
those are two different things.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
Day by day, of course, markets are weighing news cycles.

Speaker 4 (02:01):
Now what it is in the new cycle being weighed,
you know, like, let's take a day like yesterday, market
was up a thousand points and then gave a bunch
of it back, but was still up on the day.
But was it up because he came out and backtracked
on what he had said about getting rid of the
FED chair. You know, it was it up because he
went backwards on threatening to make the president the United

(02:23):
States the head of the Federal Reserve. Or was it
also up because Scott Besson is reporting Treasury Secretary Besson
was reporting that they think they're making progress in a
deal with China. There's always room for ambiguity about what
in the news cycle is impacting sentiment, but there's no
question that day by day sentiment and new cycle things

(02:48):
are affecting market activity. I would just argue that it's
not necessarily a very good thing if four people who
want to be invested in companies. I do not believe
is anything that will happen today that's going to make
McDonald's a more valuable or less valuable company. But the
stock price will go up and down. And so that's

(03:11):
what I'm getting at. Those are two different things.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Right although for the president right now, this now, this
starts the serious line of questioning. I was just trying
to aggravate you. That's what happens when you take a
week off and we miss you. We decide to start
by aggravating him. But here's a serious question, and that is.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
I think it's funny you think that that was taking
a week off you if you had any idea.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
No, no, no, a week off from us, not a
week off from life. You were working hard.

Speaker 3 (03:35):
No.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
But what I was going to get at is all
right now, when you ask specifically about the tariffs, the
president's unfavorable rating is at sixty eight percent. Clearly this
is a political problem for the president to continue down
the road of tariff Now does he finish the job,
find a way to massage it and get a good exit,

(03:56):
and then overall his favorability ratings, even on the economy
have dipped ten percent. I mean, at what point is
this an obvious political problem for the president and thus
needs a change of plan.

Speaker 3 (04:09):
Right now?

Speaker 4 (04:09):
But the whole thing is, I don't understand how has
he not already changed. He threatened to undo the world
trading system, and he chickened out four days later, he's
already undone it. He was talking about six hundred billion
dollars of tax increases, the largest tax increase in world history,

(04:29):
and four days later he said never mind. Now he's
still deep into this stuff with China, unless you're Apple
or Nvidia, he's still deep into the auto parts, and
except for now, he's looking at putting a delay on that.
So yeah, he's already finding the off ramp and realizing
that the advice he got from Pete Navarro and others

(04:51):
that this whole thing could go without disrupting the American
economy was very bad advice.

Speaker 3 (04:57):
But does it get worse from here? That's the question.

Speaker 4 (05:01):
I think that if you see his unfavorability at sixty
eight percent now and his rating on the economy down
ten and we haven't yet even gone into recession, I
think the president's well aware that the bottom can completely
fall out on this presidency. He is well aware that

(05:21):
there is a clock kicking for the need to get
off ramps to announce certain deals put this gnie back
in the bottle and undue to some degree the fallacious
idea that the president of the United States can be
the central planner of the global economy. And I think
that's what I want my conservative friends to realize. What

(05:42):
we're up against is not who's pro worker and who's
anti worker.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
I'm vehemently pro worker.

Speaker 4 (05:48):
I don't believe you effect a right policy portfolio for
workers by just getting different central planners in the government.

Speaker 3 (05:57):
I don't think central planning works.

Speaker 2 (06:00):
David Bonnson with the Bonson Financial Group. He also presides
over the Dividend Cafe, which we encourage people to go
learn more weekly from listen. And we're not anti Trump either.
What he's done, what he's done with the border is
a remarkable success. Even the Atlantic is having to acknowledge
that gas prices are down, grocery prices are down, the
jobs are looking better, the jobs report anyway, Inflation is

(06:22):
coming down. But he was playing with fire all along
with tariffs, and we wondered why he would have prioritized that,
And now we wonder if if it's time to start
wheeling the way out. Can you help our audience understand
the difference between what is the state of the economy

(06:42):
with all of the noise of narratives or even the
following of the stock market, because those things aren't all
the same, right like what is you know? I feel
like I feel like Gene Krantz and during the Apollo thirteen,
what on the aircraft is actually working right now? So

(07:04):
what are the positives on the economy right now? And
what are the big uncertainties.

Speaker 4 (07:10):
Well, I mean, the positives of the economy are all
pretty constant and none of them have much to do with.

Speaker 3 (07:15):
Politics or policy at all.

Speaker 4 (07:17):
The positives of the economy, as we have three hundred
and thirty million people in America and one hundred and
sixty five million of them work and do things, and
their capitalism is a pretty sensible way to order a society.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
And so that's the good thing.

Speaker 4 (07:31):
People get up and go to work every day and
they create profits, they create jobs, they create economic growth
that happens reasonably organically, and then governments get in the
way of that and impede it. And then governments try
to remove the impediments they created, and we talk about
that like it's a good thing. But the but you know,
when you look at jobs, when you I never really

(07:54):
feel that the unemployment rate up or down is primarily
something that.

Speaker 3 (07:59):
Has to do with the president.

Speaker 4 (08:01):
When you're looking at the current state of what's going
well directed to the policy, there is this upside possibility
of some additional tax cuts and deregulation. And I definitely
believe the president has been pretty consistently good on energy independence.
I'm not going to sit here and say when egg

(08:23):
prices go back to normal, that it had anything to
do with President Trump. But I think you're aware that
I didn't sit there and pretend it was Joe Biden's
fault when egg prices went higher either. Now will the
tariff issue lead to higher prices as a result of
products not getting on shore? Michael, there's six hundred thousand

(08:45):
containers right now minimum, and I think it's over a
million containers of cargo that are not getting into the
United States, that are delayed or canceled of shipments of
product that are not coming in because of the current
stalemate with China. That that's an utter disaster. And then

(09:05):
people say like, Okay, well, at least we're going to
you know, go through a hard time, but then we're going.

Speaker 3 (09:09):
To get a better deal out of it. In the end.

Speaker 4 (09:13):
Note, we're not going to get a deal that results
in those products being made next month in Oklahoma.

Speaker 3 (09:20):
It's not going to happen.

Speaker 2 (09:22):
Even if it would happen, it would take years, right.

Speaker 4 (09:25):
Years, years, and it would be a lot more expensive
because there is a reason that a lot of these
things were not made in Oklahoma or Tennessee or Ohio.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
To begin with.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
So there's a price increase and a time delay. You're
exactly right.

Speaker 4 (09:41):
The economic concern I have, as we've talked about several
times despite me being gone last week, is that I
think small businesses all over the country that thirty seven
percent of the imports they get from China are not
finished goods. These are American manufacturers making American products, but
part of their unfinished goods that are used in processing

(10:04):
come in from China. Thirty seven percent from China, forty
percent from the rest of the world. That's what we're
talking about. The big tariff impact being Americans can't make
things without some of the parts, and those things are
on delay. And that's what I'm worried about in the economy.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
Closing modes with David Bonson from the Bonnceon Financial Group.
All right, so President great on the border, President usually
good on gas, usually good on tax cuts, probably seeing
the light on tariffs. How does all this play out?
What can investors expect?

Speaker 4 (10:40):
Well, then nobody who answers that question should be listened
to because I don't know. But the only reason I
don't know, You don't know, investors don't know is I
don't think the President knows.

Speaker 3 (10:50):
And they've been very honest about that. You know. Jd.
Vance said the day after.

Speaker 4 (10:54):
So called Liberation Day, the President's making his decision on
his gut, and I think that was one of the
most honest things I've heard through this whole process. Secretary
Bessant has made an argument for certain things. Secretary Latinik
has made a different argument. Pete Navarro is constantly arguing
to burn it all down, and then President Trump does

(11:15):
what he does, and there is not a master plan.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
They are pivoting along the way. They're making exceptions, they're
hearing new arguments.

Speaker 4 (11:24):
No, maybe that's a really good thing, because you want
to be flexible and pliable and adjust as circumstances warrant.
Other people might think it's a bad thing. It's a
little chaotic, it's a little uncertain. I don't really care
if it's good or bad. I just want people to
know that it is. And holding on to this fantasy
that there is this five dimensional chess game being played

(11:46):
is not helpful. But nor is it unfair to say
that the president is rigid and refuses to adapt. He listens,
He listens a little bit later than I wish he would.
Sometimes but so he will follow. He's pragmatic.

Speaker 2 (11:59):
Michael, Yeah no, but so let's play this out. You
come together. It looks like the vice president may have
security deal with India. There's some thirty four. I guess
there's something like eighteen on paper offers thirty four and
they got the entire team negotiate. You put together a
deal with about twenty countries. You do whatever deal to

(12:20):
get things and get those containers flowing again from China,
and you politically craft an off ramp. I don't know
that we're any better for any of it happening, but
at least it would all be over in a relatively
short period of time and restore certainty in a market
that's very uncertain. Over all this tariff talk, I mean,
that's likely what's coming, right.

Speaker 4 (12:41):
That's why you're one of my that's why you're one
of my favorite talk radio people to appear with, because
what you just said was so incredibly honest. We may
not be better off with any of it, but the
point being that there could be some certainty in a restoration.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
I'll give you a great example.

Speaker 4 (12:55):
They're going to announce a deal in Japan. Okay, how
do you get a deal in Japan that you say
is going to be more fair when we care of
them more than they care of us. So are we
looking to now lower our tariffs of them?

Speaker 3 (13:09):
I don't think so.

Speaker 4 (13:10):
So basically, they have to somehow act like they got
a good deal with Japan when we already had a
better deal, and they're gonna do it.

Speaker 3 (13:18):
They're gonna pull it off.

Speaker 4 (13:18):
They're going to announce something in and say, look at
because of our efforts, we got a great deal of Japan,
but it was all based on something that was fundamentally
untrue to begin with. So India, we're going to get
a better deal Japan. We're going to pretend we got
a better deal. But that's okay to your point. It'll
lead to more certainty and an end of this national nightmare.

Speaker 3 (13:38):
The issue is China. It's not the other seventy countries.

Speaker 4 (13:42):
It's not Swiss chocolate, it's not Bolivian coffee.

Speaker 3 (13:46):
It's China. And that is going to be.

Speaker 4 (13:49):
A lot more complicated, I'm telling you, and we'll see, David.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
I think I'll go to my grave believing I'm right
on this. This It just it's stuck in the president's crawl.
The notion that China was going to make twelve thousand
dollars cheap EV cars in Mexico and flood them over
the border the way you know, immigrants have been flooding
through our border. That just got his goat, and I
think that gave his ear to Navarro and some other

(14:13):
bad advice. Why he didn't pivot after the border victory
straight to the tax cuts is beyond me. But the
sooner this is over, the better as far as I'm concerned. Well,
can we're already over, But in ten seconds. What's on
the Dividend Cafe this week?

Speaker 4 (14:25):
You know I'm going to be covering the five most
important things going on in the economy right now, some
of the stuff we've talked about today, So Dividend Cafe
will get into all the things that matter in the economy.

Speaker 2 (14:35):
And don't thank you for forgiving us for trying to
aggravate you, and thank you for being on here every week.
We missed you terrible last week. I know you were busy,
but we missed you. David Bonson from the Bounce and Financial.

Speaker 1 (14:45):
Group, miss a little, miss a lot, miss a lot,
and we'll miss you. It's your morning show with Michael
del Churno
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