June 13, 2025 • 33 mins
The big question... Could this lead to World War III? I don't think it will, but I will tell you that it could. We're just one misstep away from the abyss. But I've always thought we were always one step away from the abyss.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, this is how world wars can start. But I
don't happen to believe that in this situation, this is
how world War three is going to start the problem
with predicting World War three is you never know what
the particular tipping point is going to be that might
(00:21):
draw the world into a worldwide conflagration. But let's step
back for just a moment. I had a I had
a text last night that after all this news broke.
(00:43):
I'm not going to tell you who it was or anything.
You'll make fun of me, but they wrote, you called
this Middle East escalation this morning, you said to be ready,
You said to be ready, and now boom. Your insights
are terrific. Why we appreciate the compliment. However, if if
(01:07):
you pay attention now, yes, I've got the advantage of
having spent six years, almost six years inside that cesspool.
But if you if you just pay attention two, which
is easy for me to do because this is my
job a little more difficult for an average person to
(01:29):
do because you're you're trying to connect dots. But I
think it was yesterday that I talked about the markets
and how crude oil in the in the context of
maybe the the or maybe it's in the context of
(01:51):
this I just don't recall, but the markets probably knew
what was going on because of their reactions.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
UH.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Crude oil, as I pointed out, yesterday, was spiking West
Texas International rent was all on the uprise. Gold shot
through the roof yesterday up almost two percent. It was
up I want to say, fifty five closed above thirty
(02:21):
three hundred dollars. But if you if you chart gold
like I do, yesterday was a hockey stick boom straight up,
and stock futures began to nose ny so somewhere around
the world. When you know all, when you think about,
which is fascinating to me, when you think about how
(02:44):
these markets all worked together, because all these markets have analysts,
all the buyers and sellers, the traders, everybody all has
their fingers into you know, what's happening. You know what's
happening in Tehran, what's happening in happening in Islamabad, what's
(03:04):
happening in Beijing, what's happening in in Buenos Aires. They
everybody always knows, and then collectively all that comes together
and it gets presented in markets or gold prices or
oil prices or it gets reflected in uh, the numbers
(03:27):
of ships going through a channel somewhere. Israel's long rumored
air strikes on Iranian soil. You some you know, they
say they were surgical. I'm not sure about that. Some
say they were symbolic. I definitely don't think that. But
(03:50):
here's what they were. They were thunderous, they were targeted,
they were decapitating. You know, when I'm in to bed
last night, the reports were that some of the command
and control mechanisms and individuals had been destroyed. Brilliant on
the part of the Israelis, because when you know your
enemy is going to retaliate, destroy their command and control
(04:13):
structure so that they can't therefore, or they can they
can just start as opposed to surgically striking Israel. Now
they're just lobbing stuff into the air, whatever they had.
And remember, why was it just ten months ago that
they essentially took out all of the Iranian air defense
(04:33):
systems and their air force is so antiquated. You know,
you know what the Iranian Air Force really is, it's
what was left over that we had been giving them
back in the seventies when the Shaw was toppled. That's
really what they're so, so you destroy their command and
control structure. They don't have much of an air force anyway.
(04:55):
Major General Hossein Salami Solome, have you pronounce it? Who's
head of the the Iranian Guards is confirmed dead and
so is military chief Mohammed Baghari. Two prominent nuclear scientists
are god. Israeli missiles have flat and Iranian enrichment sites
(05:22):
and high level residences. Their intelligence is superb. So if
you summed it up, Israel struck hard in Tehran. They
killed top Iranian commanders, they killed nuclear sciences. Iran calls
it war. They vowed massive retaliations with a powerful missile Arsenal.
(05:47):
US bases across the Gulf A now in the crosshairs.
That's that's just a fact. But you know what, we
were always in the crosshairs? Did you forget the who
the thees? Global trade is at risk? Global trade was
always at risk. So now the markets aren't guessing. I
(06:10):
haven't looked up. I don't see anything on the cairons
about what the markets are doing right now. But they're
reacting to these attacks with the expected volatility. So you know,
I'm kind of yawning about this, and then everybody talks
about how it could result in World War three. And
I don't think it will, but I will tell you
(06:32):
that it could. We're just one misstep away from the ABYSS.
But I've always thought we were always one step away
from the ABYSS. Now, let's be clear about something. The
stribea Israel was not containment. It's a takedown. It's a
deliberate hit on the core of Iran's military nuclear establishment.
(06:56):
And the Iranians are calling it a declaration of war. Okay, well, okay,
the Mubiles are always calling something a declaration of war,
but they're probably not wrong. We're probably not wrong. And
then this morning, as I got up and started trying to,
you know, watch some news. You know, you see the
usual footage. You see the blasts across Tehran. You see
(07:17):
civilians pulled from rubble, fireballs are lighting up, you know,
the from the video pre dawn skyline. The Tans, where
the Iran's nuclear heartland is was hit hard again and
again and again. And the Israelis are claiming Parseliks's death
not complete because as you heard nat Ya Who's say
in the last hour, we'll we'll do this as long
(07:38):
as it takes. And of course then you get the
usual calls by the Iranians for vengeance. But I would
say one thing that is different this time, as the
usual tip for tac goes, I think the blood runs
a little deeper. This time, the lines are clear, and
of course the stakes are indeed far higher. So what
(08:01):
happens now, Well, Tehran promises severe punishment. Well, of course
they do what would you expect them to do? Some
would say that's rhetoric. I think that's left to be decided. Yet,
They've got two thousand ballistic missiles. Now some of them
can probably pass the Iron Dome, so there probably will
(08:23):
be some you know, there'll be some casualties. Now, there
are some reports I can't confirm them, that they've built
a new class of warhead four thousand pounds each, the
two ton warheads, and that their missile production has doubled
since last year. So the Iranians have been training for
(08:45):
this moment, not just retaliation but saturation. And where are
those missiles aimed? Well, the usual Tel Aviv Duh, Jerusalem probably,
but also US air bases that circle the Persia golf
everywhere from Qatar to Aman Byrain, Saudi Arabia. Thirteen of
(09:07):
our major American installations now sit within Iranian strike range.
Now you can look at that two ways. Are they
targets at a shooting gallery or are they hands off
for the Iranians. There's no doubt my mind, the Iranians
(09:28):
will strike back, but I don't know that those bases
and that their personnel will be the first to bleed. Now,
if they were to be the first to bleed, then
knowing Donald Trump's persona, he may or may not strike back,
depending on what deal he has with Israel, because there
(09:53):
may be a backdoor deal with Israel that says, look,
if they do strike an American base, than us immediately defending,
why don't you take the first strike? Well, and we'll
be the backup.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
There.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
There are, without any doubt in my mind whatsoever, all
of these contingencies have been discussed and are being discussed.
What time is it. It's nine to eighteen, So the
meetings confirmed as convened or is about to convene. So
in the White House situation room, they're getting the President's
getting all of the intel right now. The National Security
(10:34):
team is there, Rubio is going to be there. Heggs
is going to be there. The entire National Security apparatus
is in the situation room, and I'm sure the CIA
director is there, the DiiA director of the NSA. They're
all briefing the president, and probably for the first time,
(10:56):
the entire group as a whole is here. About all
the offline conversations that Rubio has had with his counterparts,
that Trump has had with Net and Yahoo, that Heisa
has had with the Israeli defense minister. That's all now
being put on the table, and now they're outlining our contingencies.
(11:20):
Now Washington's already said Rubio said in his statement that
we had nothing to do with the strike. Why I
would expect him to say that, And I doubt we
did have anything to do with the strike. There is
reporting that Net and Yah who told Trump We're about.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
To do this, and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
What there will be those who will describe the White
House as scrambling. Oh, they're converting emergency councils, they're withdrawing staff,
they're ducking for cover behind all these carefully worded statements. Now,
that's what you do. You do convene emergency councils that
this is nothing out of the ordinary. For Pete's sake,
(12:02):
go back to nine to eleven. Were we scrambling on
nine to eleven? Yes, But that's what you do. You convene,
You convene the National security apparatus, You get the leadership
team together. We all gathered in the Roosevelt Room and
(12:23):
in the Situation Room to understand what do we know?
How much do we know? What's right? What's wrong? What
are we going to do? Here are the assignments? What
can you do? What can you do? You deconflict all
of the policies. It's just it's the normal course of
business that takes place outside the eyes and the ears
(12:46):
of the American public. So when you hear from the
cabal that the White House is scrambling, their use of
the word scramble is a My use of the word
scramble is, yeah, you're getting everybody together. If if suddenly
(13:09):
we got an email, text messages, phone calls that said
everybody's got to meet out here in the pit by
nine twenty two, we would all scramble to get in
the pit to go find out what's going on. So,
from my perspective, yeah, I'm scrambling because I'm trying to
figure Okay, I'm on air, but I've been told to
get off here. So eight Rod's got to figure out
(13:30):
what do we plug in so we can get out
of here to get to this meeting. Yeah, so we're
kind of scrambling, but it's not necessarily negative. It's just
dealing with the reality. Trump's been trying to drag and
trying to and I think legitimately trying to get the
Rangings to negotiate. It's his style. Come to the table
(13:50):
and let's talk. I really don't want to go to war,
but as he said, there will be hell to pay.
We've got damn good weapons and we can wipe you
off the face of the earth, but we don't want
to do that. So why don't you come to the table?
So stereotypical Trump? Why is the cabal all dithered about that?
(14:14):
I would say this, though, I think any prospect of
any sort of reset with the Iranians is probably that's done.
Any so called deal to halt uranium enrichment, that's now,
that's now in that smoking crater outside than the Natan's mountains.
So it's really not about although diplomacy will continue, this
(14:37):
is not about diplomacy anymore. It's now about escalation, and
so yes, it could lead to an Archduke Ferdinand moment,
but I don't know that it will. Now, look at
the map, it's not just Israel and Iran, it's the
(14:57):
whole region. That's the price of the Strait of Hormuz,
the Red Sea, every shipping lane that countries all over
the world rely on. It's global trade, food production, fertilizer exports,
energy security. We're not insulated as much as we want. America, First,
the realization is we are not insulated. We're more entangled
(15:24):
then you know, we maybe want to be, but it's
a fact of life. Now, let's think about some of
the what ifs. If the war spirals, if hasboll All
lights up from Lebanon, if the Hoothy starts sinking tankers
in the Gulf, if Syria becomes a launchpad, if US
(15:45):
troops are caught in the crossfire. Actually, let me rephrase that.
If US troops are targeted, then know there is no
containment and there will be escalation. But the one thing,
remember I told you about the two groups, the Iranian
civilians and all the other Middle Eastern countries with maybe
the exception of Yemen. They don't want World War three.
(16:09):
They actually want Israel, the Israelis to succeed, because Iran
is a threat to all of the modernization. Remember all
of the glitz and everything that we saw when Trump
was in the Middle East. Do you think they want
to turn it over to the Mollahs? Do you think
nbs and everything he's been has been he's been doing
(16:31):
to try to modernize Saudi Arabia that he wants that
to go away. No, they are all and probably knew
what was coming, support what is happening, and secretly are
on their prayer rugs, praying that those damned Jews succeed.
(16:52):
So are their tipping points, of course, but they're always
tipping points.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Michael, Why didn't the Israelis drop that bomb that fries
all of the electrical one second after bomb that flies
all the electrical in Iran? Why didn't they do that?
That would have been an optimum thing to do. Love
the show.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
It would have been too much because remember the and
I hate to use the phrase regime change, but you
don't want to destroy the Iranian society, the people. And
if you read one second after you realize that an
(17:43):
emp so completely destroys all infrastructure, the ability to communicate,
travel to for medical care. Everything is destroyed. You go
back to a caveman day. Everything that we rely on
a modern society is gone. And ninety nine of all
(18:05):
modern society cannot live and do what it does without
all the great things that we have. So if you
were to drop an emp over over Iran, you would
you would essentially destroy that society and all the people there,
and and it would that that would be over the
(18:27):
top the Israelis. Not to let you get me too
off track, The Israelis have amazingly superior intel capabilities. I've
been privy to know about some of that. It is fascinating.
(18:47):
And their intel capability allows them to do things like
preposition weapons inside some of these places. Go back, don't
forget the pages. Remember when the you know, when all
of the HESBI law operatives all they're not just their
(19:12):
entire command in control structure, but even some of their
mid level managers, even some of their operatives all got
the oh my pager just went off kaboom. That's the
skill set that the Israelis have. And there's some reporting
(19:32):
I haven't confirmed it, but there is some reporting that
they actually had some spies, if you will, for lack
of a better term, operatives, covert operatives and weaponry already
inside the country. So there's no need for an EMP.
And as I say, the consequences of the MP would
(19:55):
have left the country the Iranians in a worse situation.
Never forget, the majority of Iranians do not support the malas.
This is a dictatorship. And and because they come from that,
it's unlike North Korea, where for generations they've lived under
(20:15):
a dictatorship, and such it is. It is so strict
that most North Koreans have no knowledge whatsoever of the
outside world. Persians, the Iranians, they do, they still have,
(20:39):
you know, they're they're getting elderly, but they remember the
days of the Shaw. And while the days of the
Shaw may have actually been, you know, a dictatorship, a monarchy,
nonetheless it was an open society, and nonetheless they they flourished. Well,
(20:59):
you destroy that, you destroy all of that society, you're
starting from scratch. So I think the way they did
it was was great now, but let's not sugarcoat it
by by launching the preventative military strikes against their nuclear infrastructure.
Net and Yaw who is essentially heat well, he isn't
(21:22):
essentially he has I think killed off Trump's diplomacy with
the rent certainly set it back. The meetings had been
called off, but I think it's it was it was
increasingly obvious that Netting Yaho and Donald Trump had the
exact same objective. Don't forget that they both won the
(21:43):
same thing. Prevent the uraniums from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
That's the objective. That's they just had different strategies about
how to achieve it. Trump wanted to try his hands
at negotiations because he doesn't like war. He wants to
avoid it. That's why that's why he dispatched Steve Whitcoff
(22:03):
to a mom to get that process going. Net Yahoo
has been clear that talking to the Iranians was a
waste of time and indeed a hindrance to the military
option that he's he's been dreaming about for over a decade.
For Trump, net and Yahoo choosing to initiate a conflict
three days before Whitkoff was scheduled to meet with the
(22:25):
Iranian foreign minister is not helpful. In fact, on the outside,
you would say, oh, they just sabotage Trump's attempts. But
you and I don't have the benefit of the intel
that Massad has about how far along they were, and
(22:47):
that Yaho is. You see, this is all three d chess,
Net and yaw who is not Remember with that SoundBite
where he talked about it was imminent, that it could
be a year, but it could be much less. That's
double talk because my guess is Massad and Net and
Yahoo knew exactly how closely it were. And my guess
(23:11):
is it was just weeks away, and that's why they
decided to do it now. And I think Trump knew that.
I think that's why. And Trump's been pretty good about this.
I think that's why. Yesterday, what was it he said?
I got the I don't have to sound but I
had the quote somewhere where he talked about, you know,
(23:32):
it could be it could be happening at any time,
it could be intimate. Well, yeah, in fact it was.
But let's go back to the point that I want
to finish, and then we're going to move on to
something else in the next hour. Whether or not this
escalates into a wider war really is determined in large
(23:53):
part by the Iranians. Tehran's taking a huge hit. Now
I've passed his prologue, which usually is they're not going
to sit there and nurse their wounds. They will strike back.
The question becomes will they strike back at both the
Israelis and the Americans. They can strike back at just
(24:14):
the Americans. They may say, okay, well, if you're going
to bring us down, we're going to draw you in.
At that point, Trump's got a couple of options. He
can directly get involved, or he can indirectly get involved
by giving the Israelis whatever they need to counterattack the Iranians.
(24:39):
We don't think that's what's not mean. Well, let me
rephrase that. That is precisely what's being discussed inside the
situation room right now and Iran they know. They're calculating
all the different ways that Iran has to retaliate. I
think one of the most likely is a a large
(25:00):
barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles against the raised Israeli
city cities, you know, and much more so than those
salvos with that previous flare up where they just sent
all those drones over, but they may not have much left.
You see, what's being discussed in the situation room right
now is the intel that the Israelis are sharing with
(25:23):
us about what they've accomplished and what their damage assessments
showed them about what they've accomplished, because that informs us
about what they Iranians might do and informs us about
what we have to be prepared for.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Now.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Again, I still want to emphasize it doesn't take a
genius to see how this could escalate into a huge confrontation.
But that's what they're all analyzing right now, and quite honestly,
between the CIA masade between Trump and that Yaho between
(26:02):
Rubio and the Israeli foreign minister, I've got a lot
of confidence that they're chessboarding this at the wazoo right now.
Our logistical and intelligence support for offensive Israeli attacks on Iran,
(26:25):
I think should be offered. Doing so will support netting
Yahoo for now. I know it torpedoed Trump's diplomatic efforts,
but how much of what we saw in terms of
the diplomatic efforts was a combination of Trump genuinely trying
(26:48):
to accomplish something diplomatically while being told by Steve Whitcoff
that these talks are going nowhere. We will still agree
to reconvene this coming Sunday. I think Whipcough is probably
already in Oman. He may or may not be. He
may be on his way back, who knows. But keep
(27:09):
that option open, which is why Trump said what he
said yesterday. But I'm still willing to talk. But if
you don't, it's gonna be worse than you even expected.
So for all of those who keep claiming that somehow
this is going to split MAGA, don't let it split MAGA,
because we don't have all of the intel that they
(27:31):
have that they're operating on, and we don't know, and
I can sure guarantee you that conversations are constantly ongoing. Fact,
you wouldn't surprise me in the least that as Rubio
and Hegsath and Vance and Trump and they all, the
entire apparatus sits inside the situation room. You see, the
(27:54):
situation room's got this long conference table, and there are
secure pipes meaning that they are they're connected to television
monitors that you can have secure conversations over. It wouldn't
surprise me in the least. At some point Net and
Yahoo comes on and addresses Trump and the team sitting
(28:16):
in the White House situation room. I think there's that
close of coordination going on.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Well, it's hitting the news Michael that there are drone
bases within some of these areas that Israel bomb. I'm
wondering if the CCP and the Farmland here in America
wouldn't be doing the same thing, if.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Oh, oh, if the Chinese Communist Party wouldn't be doing
the same thing here, Well, of course they would. I mean,
this is why I've always maintained that border security is
a national security issue. And when you have you know,
military age Chinese nationals coming into this country illegally, yeah,
that presents a danger to the country. So I'm not
(29:08):
going to play the sound bite because I don't have time.
But Number one Mark Senator Mark Kelly is on cable
news this morning talking about how this is all Trump's fault. Wow,
So Democrats all they've got is this is Trump's fault. Again,
I'd ask, how is that when you're negotiating in good
(29:32):
faith and the intel and I'm making an assumption here
that the intel shows that one, you know, for a fact,
without intel, because you're involved in them, that negotiations are
going nowhere. And then the Intel informs the negotiations that hey,
things are worse than we think they are. They're much closer.
They're ready to launch. So they do a primptice strike.
(29:54):
We know that, and so then Mark Kelly comes along
and blames Trump for all of this. What bull crap.
But on the same channel, MSNBC, they haul out Chris Matthews,
former chief of Staff too Speaker Tipple Neil used to
be a host on the MSNBC. I don't agree with
(30:15):
most of anything that Chris Matthews says, but I know
Chris and he's a good guy. But listen to what
he says.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Here Stark negotiations again.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
But hang out, that's not the one I wanted. Mark
Kelly pulled up. I know what, Mark Kelly. Here we go.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Stark negotiations again with the Iranians.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
So Chris Matthews. An interesting plot subplot to all of
this is a relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister
Netan Yahoo. They were very close during Trump's first term.
Net Yahoo angered Trump when he recognized Joe Biden as
the rightful winner of the twenty twenty election. Times the
things started off on the right foot. We remember Trump's
(30:52):
Middle East Riviera plan for Gaza. But there's been real
signs of strange since to the point where President Trump
skipped Israel when he was in the Middle East not
long ago, and now it appears even if it's not
open defiance, and Yahoo didn't take Trump's advice and went
forward with these attacks. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (31:11):
You know, if you look at American history with Israel,
it's interesting. It's it's not fickle, but it does change
if Israel looks like it's the underdog, like it did
in the six sixty war, where it did win that
whole wars thanks to En We were rooting like hell
for them, really rooting for them against all those Arabic
countries that were attacking them, including Egypt, And then when
(31:33):
you look at their attack on Gaza, and the American
people are very split on that, very split on that.
But when it goes to Israel against Israel's defense its
actual existence, the American people are one hundred percent with him,
and they look at.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
A Ran, Why is I Ran won a bomb? Well,
it may.
Speaker 5 (31:50):
Want a bomb that could do the one one strike thing.
One as the Master's said, one bomb country, you knack
you out Tel Aviv and that's it.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
That's the ballgame.
Speaker 5 (32:00):
And so Israel can't afford to have an aggressive work
by nuclear weapons with Iran. They have to stop.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Them from having nuclear weapons.
Speaker 5 (32:08):
Now, Obama said, I'll put a time limit on it.
They can't have one for five years. Well, fairly enough.
Trump said that's a joke. Five years they'll have one.
So that's not going to stop them. So he can't
make a deal that says X many years. He can't
come out and say, Okay, we're going to stand from
getting a weapon for five years. He'll be laughed at
because that's what the Obama deal was. So he has
(32:30):
to really get rid of the bomb making ability of
that country. He's got to stop them from their nuclear route.
He's got to get them off that route to something else.
And he says it's hard to get there. Well, yes,
it is hard to get there, because that's what they
want to do.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
They want to you. I find interesting in all of
this those who claim that this whole situation is splitting
the Republican Party. I think it's just the opposite they're projecting.
It's actually splitting the Democrat Party, which means and we're
doing something right once.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Yeah,
Well, this is how world wars can start. But I
don't happen to believe that in this situation, this is
how world War three is going to start the problem
with predicting World War three is you never know what
the particular tipping point is going to be that might
(00:21):
draw the world into a worldwide conflagration. But let's step
back for just a moment. I had a I had
a text last night that after all this news broke.
(00:43):
I'm not going to tell you who it was or anything.
You'll make fun of me, but they wrote, you called
this Middle East escalation this morning, you said to be ready,
You said to be ready, and now boom. Your insights
are terrific. Why we appreciate the compliment. However, if if
(01:07):
you pay attention now, yes, I've got the advantage of
having spent six years, almost six years inside that cesspool.
But if you if you just pay attention two, which
is easy for me to do because this is my
job a little more difficult for an average person to
(01:29):
do because you're you're trying to connect dots. But I
think it was yesterday that I talked about the markets
and how crude oil in the in the context of
maybe the the or maybe it's in the context of
(01:51):
this I just don't recall, but the markets probably knew
what was going on because of their reactions.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
UH.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Crude oil, as I pointed out, yesterday, was spiking West
Texas International rent was all on the uprise. Gold shot
through the roof yesterday up almost two percent. It was
up I want to say, fifty five closed above thirty
(02:21):
three hundred dollars. But if you if you chart gold
like I do, yesterday was a hockey stick boom straight up,
and stock futures began to nose ny so somewhere around
the world. When you know all, when you think about,
which is fascinating to me, when you think about how
(02:44):
these markets all worked together, because all these markets have analysts,
all the buyers and sellers, the traders, everybody all has
their fingers into you know, what's happening. You know what's
happening in Tehran, what's happening in happening in Islamabad, what's
(03:04):
happening in Beijing, what's happening in in Buenos Aires. They
everybody always knows, and then collectively all that comes together
and it gets presented in markets or gold prices or
oil prices or it gets reflected in uh, the numbers
(03:27):
of ships going through a channel somewhere. Israel's long rumored
air strikes on Iranian soil. You some you know, they
say they were surgical. I'm not sure about that. Some
say they were symbolic. I definitely don't think that. But
(03:50):
here's what they were. They were thunderous, they were targeted,
they were decapitating. You know, when I'm in to bed
last night, the reports were that some of the command
and control mechanisms and individuals had been destroyed. Brilliant on
the part of the Israelis, because when you know your
enemy is going to retaliate, destroy their command and control
(04:13):
structure so that they can't therefore, or they can they
can just start as opposed to surgically striking Israel. Now
they're just lobbing stuff into the air, whatever they had.
And remember, why was it just ten months ago that
they essentially took out all of the Iranian air defense
(04:33):
systems and their air force is so antiquated. You know,
you know what the Iranian Air Force really is, it's
what was left over that we had been giving them
back in the seventies when the Shaw was toppled. That's
really what they're so, so you destroy their command and
control structure. They don't have much of an air force anyway.
(04:55):
Major General Hossein Salami Solome, have you pronounce it? Who's
head of the the Iranian Guards is confirmed dead and
so is military chief Mohammed Baghari. Two prominent nuclear scientists
are god. Israeli missiles have flat and Iranian enrichment sites
(05:22):
and high level residences. Their intelligence is superb. So if
you summed it up, Israel struck hard in Tehran. They
killed top Iranian commanders, they killed nuclear sciences. Iran calls
it war. They vowed massive retaliations with a powerful missile Arsenal.
(05:47):
US bases across the Gulf A now in the crosshairs.
That's that's just a fact. But you know what, we
were always in the crosshairs? Did you forget the who
the thees? Global trade is at risk? Global trade was
always at risk. So now the markets aren't guessing. I
(06:10):
haven't looked up. I don't see anything on the cairons
about what the markets are doing right now. But they're
reacting to these attacks with the expected volatility. So you know,
I'm kind of yawning about this, and then everybody talks
about how it could result in World War three. And
I don't think it will, but I will tell you
(06:32):
that it could. We're just one misstep away from the ABYSS.
But I've always thought we were always one step away
from the ABYSS. Now, let's be clear about something. The
stribea Israel was not containment. It's a takedown. It's a
deliberate hit on the core of Iran's military nuclear establishment.
(06:56):
And the Iranians are calling it a declaration of war. Okay, well, okay,
the Mubiles are always calling something a declaration of war,
but they're probably not wrong. We're probably not wrong. And
then this morning, as I got up and started trying to,
you know, watch some news. You know, you see the
usual footage. You see the blasts across Tehran. You see
(07:17):
civilians pulled from rubble, fireballs are lighting up, you know,
the from the video pre dawn skyline. The Tans, where
the Iran's nuclear heartland is was hit hard again and
again and again. And the Israelis are claiming Parseliks's death
not complete because as you heard nat Ya Who's say
in the last hour, we'll we'll do this as long
(07:38):
as it takes. And of course then you get the
usual calls by the Iranians for vengeance. But I would
say one thing that is different this time, as the
usual tip for tac goes, I think the blood runs
a little deeper. This time, the lines are clear, and
of course the stakes are indeed far higher. So what
(08:01):
happens now, Well, Tehran promises severe punishment. Well, of course
they do what would you expect them to do? Some
would say that's rhetoric. I think that's left to be decided. Yet,
They've got two thousand ballistic missiles. Now some of them
can probably pass the Iron Dome, so there probably will
(08:23):
be some you know, there'll be some casualties. Now, there
are some reports I can't confirm them, that they've built
a new class of warhead four thousand pounds each, the
two ton warheads, and that their missile production has doubled
since last year. So the Iranians have been training for
(08:45):
this moment, not just retaliation but saturation. And where are
those missiles aimed? Well, the usual Tel Aviv Duh, Jerusalem probably,
but also US air bases that circle the Persia golf
everywhere from Qatar to Aman Byrain, Saudi Arabia. Thirteen of
(09:07):
our major American installations now sit within Iranian strike range.
Now you can look at that two ways. Are they
targets at a shooting gallery or are they hands off
for the Iranians. There's no doubt my mind, the Iranians
(09:28):
will strike back, but I don't know that those bases
and that their personnel will be the first to bleed. Now,
if they were to be the first to bleed, then
knowing Donald Trump's persona, he may or may not strike back,
depending on what deal he has with Israel, because there
(09:53):
may be a backdoor deal with Israel that says, look,
if they do strike an American base, than us immediately defending,
why don't you take the first strike? Well, and we'll
be the backup.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
There.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
There are, without any doubt in my mind whatsoever, all
of these contingencies have been discussed and are being discussed.
What time is it. It's nine to eighteen, So the
meetings confirmed as convened or is about to convene. So
in the White House situation room, they're getting the President's
getting all of the intel right now. The National Security
(10:34):
team is there, Rubio is going to be there. Heggs
is going to be there. The entire National Security apparatus
is in the situation room, and I'm sure the CIA
director is there, the DiiA director of the NSA. They're
all briefing the president, and probably for the first time,
(10:56):
the entire group as a whole is here. About all
the offline conversations that Rubio has had with his counterparts,
that Trump has had with Net and Yahoo, that Heisa
has had with the Israeli defense minister. That's all now
being put on the table, and now they're outlining our contingencies.
(11:20):
Now Washington's already said Rubio said in his statement that
we had nothing to do with the strike. Why I
would expect him to say that, And I doubt we
did have anything to do with the strike. There is
reporting that Net and Yah who told Trump We're about.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
To do this, and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
What there will be those who will describe the White
House as scrambling. Oh, they're converting emergency councils, they're withdrawing staff,
they're ducking for cover behind all these carefully worded statements. Now,
that's what you do. You do convene emergency councils that
this is nothing out of the ordinary. For Pete's sake,
(12:02):
go back to nine to eleven. Were we scrambling on
nine to eleven? Yes, But that's what you do. You convene,
You convene the National security apparatus, You get the leadership
team together. We all gathered in the Roosevelt Room and
(12:23):
in the Situation Room to understand what do we know?
How much do we know? What's right? What's wrong? What
are we going to do? Here are the assignments? What
can you do? What can you do? You deconflict all
of the policies. It's just it's the normal course of
business that takes place outside the eyes and the ears
(12:46):
of the American public. So when you hear from the
cabal that the White House is scrambling, their use of
the word scramble is a My use of the word
scramble is, yeah, you're getting everybody together. If if suddenly
(13:09):
we got an email, text messages, phone calls that said
everybody's got to meet out here in the pit by
nine twenty two, we would all scramble to get in
the pit to go find out what's going on. So,
from my perspective, yeah, I'm scrambling because I'm trying to
figure Okay, I'm on air, but I've been told to
get off here. So eight Rod's got to figure out
(13:30):
what do we plug in so we can get out
of here to get to this meeting. Yeah, so we're
kind of scrambling, but it's not necessarily negative. It's just
dealing with the reality. Trump's been trying to drag and
trying to and I think legitimately trying to get the
Rangings to negotiate. It's his style. Come to the table
(13:50):
and let's talk. I really don't want to go to war,
but as he said, there will be hell to pay.
We've got damn good weapons and we can wipe you
off the face of the earth, but we don't want
to do that. So why don't you come to the table?
So stereotypical Trump? Why is the cabal all dithered about that?
(14:14):
I would say this, though, I think any prospect of
any sort of reset with the Iranians is probably that's done.
Any so called deal to halt uranium enrichment, that's now,
that's now in that smoking crater outside than the Natan's mountains.
So it's really not about although diplomacy will continue, this
(14:37):
is not about diplomacy anymore. It's now about escalation, and
so yes, it could lead to an Archduke Ferdinand moment,
but I don't know that it will. Now, look at
the map, it's not just Israel and Iran, it's the
(14:57):
whole region. That's the price of the Strait of Hormuz,
the Red Sea, every shipping lane that countries all over
the world rely on. It's global trade, food production, fertilizer exports,
energy security. We're not insulated as much as we want. America, First,
the realization is we are not insulated. We're more entangled
(15:24):
then you know, we maybe want to be, but it's
a fact of life. Now, let's think about some of
the what ifs. If the war spirals, if hasboll All
lights up from Lebanon, if the Hoothy starts sinking tankers
in the Gulf, if Syria becomes a launchpad, if US
(15:45):
troops are caught in the crossfire. Actually, let me rephrase that.
If US troops are targeted, then know there is no
containment and there will be escalation. But the one thing,
remember I told you about the two groups, the Iranian
civilians and all the other Middle Eastern countries with maybe
the exception of Yemen. They don't want World War three.
(16:09):
They actually want Israel, the Israelis to succeed, because Iran
is a threat to all of the modernization. Remember all
of the glitz and everything that we saw when Trump
was in the Middle East. Do you think they want
to turn it over to the Mollahs? Do you think
nbs and everything he's been has been he's been doing
(16:31):
to try to modernize Saudi Arabia that he wants that
to go away. No, they are all and probably knew
what was coming, support what is happening, and secretly are
on their prayer rugs, praying that those damned Jews succeed.
(16:52):
So are their tipping points, of course, but they're always
tipping points.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Michael, Why didn't the Israelis drop that bomb that fries
all of the electrical one second after bomb that flies
all the electrical in Iran? Why didn't they do that?
That would have been an optimum thing to do. Love
the show.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
It would have been too much because remember the and
I hate to use the phrase regime change, but you
don't want to destroy the Iranian society, the people. And
if you read one second after you realize that an
(17:43):
emp so completely destroys all infrastructure, the ability to communicate,
travel to for medical care. Everything is destroyed. You go
back to a caveman day. Everything that we rely on
a modern society is gone. And ninety nine of all
(18:05):
modern society cannot live and do what it does without
all the great things that we have. So if you
were to drop an emp over over Iran, you would
you would essentially destroy that society and all the people there,
and and it would that that would be over the
(18:27):
top the Israelis. Not to let you get me too
off track, The Israelis have amazingly superior intel capabilities. I've
been privy to know about some of that. It is fascinating.
(18:47):
And their intel capability allows them to do things like
preposition weapons inside some of these places. Go back, don't
forget the pages. Remember when the you know, when all
of the HESBI law operatives all they're not just their
(19:12):
entire command in control structure, but even some of their
mid level managers, even some of their operatives all got
the oh my pager just went off kaboom. That's the
skill set that the Israelis have. And there's some reporting
(19:32):
I haven't confirmed it, but there is some reporting that
they actually had some spies, if you will, for lack
of a better term, operatives, covert operatives and weaponry already
inside the country. So there's no need for an EMP.
And as I say, the consequences of the MP would
(19:55):
have left the country the Iranians in a worse situation.
Never forget, the majority of Iranians do not support the malas.
This is a dictatorship. And and because they come from that,
it's unlike North Korea, where for generations they've lived under
(20:15):
a dictatorship, and such it is. It is so strict
that most North Koreans have no knowledge whatsoever of the
outside world. Persians, the Iranians, they do, they still have,
(20:39):
you know, they're they're getting elderly, but they remember the
days of the Shaw. And while the days of the
Shaw may have actually been, you know, a dictatorship, a monarchy,
nonetheless it was an open society, and nonetheless they they flourished. Well,
(20:59):
you destroy that, you destroy all of that society, you're
starting from scratch. So I think the way they did
it was was great now, but let's not sugarcoat it
by by launching the preventative military strikes against their nuclear infrastructure.
Net and Yaw who is essentially heat well, he isn't
(21:22):
essentially he has I think killed off Trump's diplomacy with
the rent certainly set it back. The meetings had been
called off, but I think it's it was it was
increasingly obvious that Netting Yaho and Donald Trump had the
exact same objective. Don't forget that they both won the
(21:43):
same thing. Prevent the uraniums from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
That's the objective. That's they just had different strategies about
how to achieve it. Trump wanted to try his hands
at negotiations because he doesn't like war. He wants to
avoid it. That's why that's why he dispatched Steve Whitcoff
(22:03):
to a mom to get that process going. Net Yahoo
has been clear that talking to the Iranians was a
waste of time and indeed a hindrance to the military
option that he's he's been dreaming about for over a decade.
For Trump, net and Yahoo choosing to initiate a conflict
three days before Whitkoff was scheduled to meet with the
(22:25):
Iranian foreign minister is not helpful. In fact, on the outside,
you would say, oh, they just sabotage Trump's attempts. But
you and I don't have the benefit of the intel
that Massad has about how far along they were, and
(22:47):
that Yaho is. You see, this is all three d chess,
Net and yaw who is not Remember with that SoundBite
where he talked about it was imminent, that it could
be a year, but it could be much less. That's
double talk because my guess is Massad and Net and
Yahoo knew exactly how closely it were. And my guess
(23:11):
is it was just weeks away, and that's why they
decided to do it now. And I think Trump knew that.
I think that's why. And Trump's been pretty good about this.
I think that's why. Yesterday, what was it he said?
I got the I don't have to sound but I
had the quote somewhere where he talked about, you know,
(23:32):
it could be it could be happening at any time,
it could be intimate. Well, yeah, in fact it was.
But let's go back to the point that I want
to finish, and then we're going to move on to
something else in the next hour. Whether or not this
escalates into a wider war really is determined in large
(23:53):
part by the Iranians. Tehran's taking a huge hit. Now
I've passed his prologue, which usually is they're not going
to sit there and nurse their wounds. They will strike back.
The question becomes will they strike back at both the
Israelis and the Americans. They can strike back at just
(24:14):
the Americans. They may say, okay, well, if you're going
to bring us down, we're going to draw you in.
At that point, Trump's got a couple of options. He
can directly get involved, or he can indirectly get involved
by giving the Israelis whatever they need to counterattack the Iranians.
(24:39):
We don't think that's what's not mean. Well, let me
rephrase that. That is precisely what's being discussed inside the
situation room right now and Iran they know. They're calculating
all the different ways that Iran has to retaliate. I
think one of the most likely is a a large
(25:00):
barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles against the raised Israeli
city cities, you know, and much more so than those
salvos with that previous flare up where they just sent
all those drones over, but they may not have much left.
You see, what's being discussed in the situation room right
now is the intel that the Israelis are sharing with
(25:23):
us about what they've accomplished and what their damage assessments
showed them about what they've accomplished, because that informs us
about what they Iranians might do and informs us about
what we have to be prepared for.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Now.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Again, I still want to emphasize it doesn't take a
genius to see how this could escalate into a huge confrontation.
But that's what they're all analyzing right now, and quite honestly,
between the CIA masade between Trump and that Yaho between
(26:02):
Rubio and the Israeli foreign minister, I've got a lot
of confidence that they're chessboarding this at the wazoo right now.
Our logistical and intelligence support for offensive Israeli attacks on Iran,
(26:25):
I think should be offered. Doing so will support netting
Yahoo for now. I know it torpedoed Trump's diplomatic efforts,
but how much of what we saw in terms of
the diplomatic efforts was a combination of Trump genuinely trying
(26:48):
to accomplish something diplomatically while being told by Steve Whitcoff
that these talks are going nowhere. We will still agree
to reconvene this coming Sunday. I think Whipcough is probably
already in Oman. He may or may not be. He
may be on his way back, who knows. But keep
(27:09):
that option open, which is why Trump said what he
said yesterday. But I'm still willing to talk. But if
you don't, it's gonna be worse than you even expected.
So for all of those who keep claiming that somehow
this is going to split MAGA, don't let it split MAGA,
because we don't have all of the intel that they
(27:31):
have that they're operating on, and we don't know, and
I can sure guarantee you that conversations are constantly ongoing. Fact,
you wouldn't surprise me in the least that as Rubio
and Hegsath and Vance and Trump and they all, the
entire apparatus sits inside the situation room. You see, the
(27:54):
situation room's got this long conference table, and there are
secure pipes meaning that they are they're connected to television
monitors that you can have secure conversations over. It wouldn't
surprise me in the least. At some point Net and
Yahoo comes on and addresses Trump and the team sitting
(28:16):
in the White House situation room. I think there's that
close of coordination going on.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Well, it's hitting the news Michael that there are drone
bases within some of these areas that Israel bomb. I'm
wondering if the CCP and the Farmland here in America
wouldn't be doing the same thing, if.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Oh, oh, if the Chinese Communist Party wouldn't be doing
the same thing here, Well, of course they would. I mean,
this is why I've always maintained that border security is
a national security issue. And when you have you know,
military age Chinese nationals coming into this country illegally, yeah,
that presents a danger to the country. So I'm not
(29:08):
going to play the sound bite because I don't have time.
But Number one Mark Senator Mark Kelly is on cable
news this morning talking about how this is all Trump's fault. Wow,
So Democrats all they've got is this is Trump's fault. Again,
I'd ask, how is that when you're negotiating in good
(29:32):
faith and the intel and I'm making an assumption here
that the intel shows that one, you know, for a fact,
without intel, because you're involved in them, that negotiations are
going nowhere. And then the Intel informs the negotiations that hey,
things are worse than we think they are. They're much closer.
They're ready to launch. So they do a primptice strike.
(29:54):
We know that, and so then Mark Kelly comes along
and blames Trump for all of this. What bull crap.
But on the same channel, MSNBC, they haul out Chris Matthews,
former chief of Staff too Speaker Tipple Neil used to
be a host on the MSNBC. I don't agree with
(30:15):
most of anything that Chris Matthews says, but I know
Chris and he's a good guy. But listen to what
he says.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
Here Stark negotiations again.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
But hang out, that's not the one I wanted. Mark
Kelly pulled up. I know what, Mark Kelly. Here we go.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Stark negotiations again with the Iranians.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
So Chris Matthews. An interesting plot subplot to all of
this is a relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister
Netan Yahoo. They were very close during Trump's first term.
Net Yahoo angered Trump when he recognized Joe Biden as
the rightful winner of the twenty twenty election. Times the
things started off on the right foot. We remember Trump's
(30:52):
Middle East Riviera plan for Gaza. But there's been real
signs of strange since to the point where President Trump
skipped Israel when he was in the Middle East not
long ago, and now it appears even if it's not
open defiance, and Yahoo didn't take Trump's advice and went
forward with these attacks. Yeah.
Speaker 5 (31:11):
You know, if you look at American history with Israel,
it's interesting. It's it's not fickle, but it does change
if Israel looks like it's the underdog, like it did
in the six sixty war, where it did win that
whole wars thanks to En We were rooting like hell
for them, really rooting for them against all those Arabic
countries that were attacking them, including Egypt, And then when
(31:33):
you look at their attack on Gaza, and the American
people are very split on that, very split on that.
But when it goes to Israel against Israel's defense its
actual existence, the American people are one hundred percent with him,
and they look at.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
A Ran, Why is I Ran won a bomb? Well,
it may.
Speaker 5 (31:50):
Want a bomb that could do the one one strike thing.
One as the Master's said, one bomb country, you knack
you out Tel Aviv and that's it.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
That's the ballgame.
Speaker 5 (32:00):
And so Israel can't afford to have an aggressive work
by nuclear weapons with Iran. They have to stop.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Them from having nuclear weapons.
Speaker 5 (32:08):
Now, Obama said, I'll put a time limit on it.
They can't have one for five years. Well, fairly enough.
Trump said that's a joke. Five years they'll have one.
So that's not going to stop them. So he can't
make a deal that says X many years. He can't
come out and say, Okay, we're going to stand from
getting a weapon for five years. He'll be laughed at
because that's what the Obama deal was. So he has
(32:30):
to really get rid of the bomb making ability of
that country. He's got to stop them from their nuclear route.
He's got to get them off that route to something else.
And he says it's hard to get there. Well, yes,
it is hard to get there, because that's what they
want to do.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
They want to you. I find interesting in all of
this those who claim that this whole situation is splitting
the Republican Party. I think it's just the opposite they're projecting.
It's actually splitting the Democrat Party, which means and we're
doing something right once.
Speaker 2 (33:00):
Yeah,
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