October 16, 2023 • 18 mins
Dave Bartoo @cfbmatrix joined @chadinripcity & @DwightJaynes on @ripcityradio620 to discuss the analytics behind Dan Lanning's 4th down decision making in the Ducks 36-33 loss at Husky Stadium on Saturday. 10-16-23.
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(00:00):
Dave bar two is back on theshow What's Up, Buddy, dude?
And at NFL maybe we broke intotwo franchises doing some consulting for the NFL.
Gosh, that's awesome, man.What's that been like so far?
What's that been like so far withthe league? Kingly all over? Well,
one of them, I mean,it's it's I got I gotta tell
(00:20):
you. One of them is myfranchise, the one I grew up rooting
for, so to have the Imean, this is it's the equivalent of
you getting a call from the Broncosand then telling you to come work for
him. Oh, that's awesome.Gosh's right. Could you get tell you
think about that? Bartwo. Youactually get to give information that can help
(00:42):
make a difference in your team's process. Yeah. Yeah, And that's That's
one of the things I love aboutwhat I do at the college football level
as well, is you know,no longer a might just a duck A
lot rooting for the ducks I am. I'm I root for all my teams,
and it's mouth heartbreaking and fantastic atthe same time. But it certainly
(01:07):
makes life exciting every Saturday when I'mnot out hunting. That's awesome. Okay,
David, let's get down to business. I know you're a number sky
and you've got these things figured out. You're our guru, man, you
are the guru of this stuff.And I'm gonna ask you. We're going
to go through these fourth down decisionsof Dan Lanning, and each one of
them. I'm going to ask youfirst about the one right before the half,
(01:32):
fourth and the three? What doyou think six seconds to go in
the half, you take the points, you kick the damn field goal?
Tell us why you always kick thefield goal? Ironically day all the way
back to twenty ten Ducks Auburn firstand goal barner, second and goal Thomis
(01:57):
first, the third and goal barner, fourth and goal barner. That would
have won the game, right,that would have won the football game,
But it didn't. And ever sincethat game, I have been tracking red
zone fourth down efficiency and games thatare decided by three points or less like
this weekend, since two thousand,since twenty eleven, since that twy ten
(02:21):
National Championship games, teams that gofor it, go for fourth down and
three or more in the red zonewin forty three of the football games.
Wow it is you don't do it. It's it's almost the exact same number
as going for two. Teams thathave won football games, going for two
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is about forty four win rating.Now those are one score games because you're
just going for two. It's theextra one point, right, And all
those years that give me an example, all those years too, Kelly went
for two. It affected one gameoutcome one. He was one and oh,
I'll give him that. And Danhas done it now, well,
he's done five fourth downs that havemade him three and oh oh in three
(03:07):
and time games. Okay, butrealistically he's had a bit of that luck
you would expect in those five fourthdowns he went for that, two of
them would have converted. He shouldhave got at least one win out of
that whole thing. Now, thelast one shouldn't even had to go for,
right, because if he kicked thetwo field goals, he's up nine.
There's no decision. Yeah right.But what I tell the client is
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it's a simple rule of thumb.Go for two only if time and score
pressure demand it, which means fourthquarter, and you only go for in
the red zone. It's really upto you on fourth and one, fourth
and two, fourth and three,you're dancing with the devil. I mean
this weekend, Dan isn't the onlyone that lost going for it in the
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red zone. There was three teamsthat did it, one to one.
Illinois beat Maryland on it, Ulmlost a one point game Texas State going
for it in the red zone.So I know a lot of people say,
Dave, well, what if hemade it? What if you know
something? Even if he was fiveor five the next time he did it,
I'd say, don't do it.Yeah, right, because the numbers
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are the numbers. It's really simple. If you go for it, the
odds are you're not going to makeit, and if the game's close,
the odds are you're going to losefootball game. And he's been stinked that
with it, he's going three.I do appreciate that when he comes out,
he says, I'm not doing thisby any book. It's just gut
feel, it's emotion, it's gaincontrol, right. But when it comes
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right down to it, what everybodyasks me is always the same thing.
Would you have done the same thingin that situation? And the number say
you in the red zone? Youalways take the point because if it is
a tight game. The odds areyou're going to be on the losing end
of that thing, Dave, justa question. Though he's done it so
many times, it makes me wonderif he's thinking that the same way you
(05:00):
did when you said he was kindof unlucky. The percentages are almost in
his favor if he keeps trying right. Yeah, Oh my god, dude.
I was so gutless Saturday morning.My son was all jacked up for
the football game, and I said, dude, it's going to be a
close game. It's gonna be ahell of a game. And watch the
same thing come down to a tightgame that Dan blows by making bad decisions
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when the numbers go against him,and I'll be son of them that it
didn't happen again. I'm just sittingthere looking at the TV. When he
went for it on fourth down anddidn't get it in the red zone the
first time, you know, mydata partner in Tulsa texted me just straight
up shake my head. I waslike, I can't believe this. And
then it happened again. I'm like, there's six points right, you could
you almost knew what was going tohappen, and they still had a shot.
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I mean they were well within fieldgoal range, but they didn't need
to be there. So nothing againstDan or anything like that. It's just
the numbers are I would say thesame thing to every head coach. You
know, you don't go for itever in those situations if you're going to
pull an upset. And that wasn'tan upset obviously, but if you're going
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to try to pull an upset,and I write I write a white paper
for our clients every year. It'scalled the Anatomy of an Upset, and
we update it every year and weprofile the behavior of what it takes to
upset a team in a football game. And one of the common things that
comes up is don't do anything weird. If you're going to pull an upset.
The other team's got to make themistake. The team that's favorites got
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to have the off date. Yougot to play perfect football. You got
to stick to the numbers. Youdon't have to do anything special. You
got to get lucky bombing passes overthe top for explosive scores. You can't
turn over the ball. So youknow, a game like this, I
would say, over and over,no matter how many times are you successful
going forward. Punt that thing awaybecause how many points did Washington score starting
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driving under twenty? Yesday seven?Just play the numbers. Play the numbers.
Have faith in your defense. Rememberwhen you're saying, hey, I
got faith in my players. Well, when you say you got faith in
your players, and there's two sides, you're kind of saying you don't have
faith in the other side. Andyou have a top ten defense coming in
and you're a defensive coordinator of anational champion, Dude, play some freaking
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defense and punt that ball away.That's amazing, now, Dave. So
what do you advise your clients onthem when it comes to fourth down decision
making? When when should you gofor it on fourth down? And how
do you advise and what's the planyou come up with? Well, really
a lot of it. It dependson situationally on the game. Because one
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of the first things we'll do iswe will go in and we will say,
okay, now in September, wemake no advice whatsoever okay, because
we don't know who they're playing.Right, you can say, well,
this team was look at tc thisteam was TCU X last year. That's
not the same team. Things constantlychange in college football, So advising people
on going for or on fourth downin September is a moot point because we
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don't know what we're dealing with.So by October we know, Okay,
the defense is of ex quality.The offense you're facing is of ex quality.
Right, Because when you're making afourth down decision like that last fourth
down, let's say that's the mostone, that's the one burned in people's
minds right now, you have tonot only consider your odds of making it
about forty percent, but the oddsof the strength of the offense versus your
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defense going the other way, youknow, putting geting in the ball of
the fifteen or inside the twenty versusbasically on the fifty five, and so
all of that, it depends onwhat you are facing in college football.
Ultimately, the rule of Thun kindof comes down to fourth and one,
fourth and two. It's up toyou fourth and three. The odds are
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against you fourth and three, fourthfour, fourth and five going forward,
because most of the college football gamesare blowout, it's not going to affect
a game. So if you thinkit is, it needs to be a
calculated risk based on the distance,and based on the defense you're facing and
the quality of offense that could begoing in the other direction. If you're
playing Iowa, you go for itevery time because they've got a crappy offense,
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right, you don't worry about it. So it really varies game by
game in each scenario. Okay,I'm curious though, Dave, give me
the breakdown on if they would havepunted average punt puts, I would say,
puts the Hoskies inside the twenty somewhere, fifteen, ten, five,
whatever. Right, if you getlucky with a punt, what are the
(09:33):
odds then based on if they youknow, they gave them the ball at
their own forty eight, I think, well, who knows what it is?
Really a lot of people like tosay, well, this is what
the odds are, but they're justlooking at averages of all of college football,
right, And I think a lotof these decisions I keep going back
to it is there's really not thatmuch analytics involved with it. A lot
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of it is game time, situationand scenario. You know, in the
first half, you probably don't doit because Washington's going up and down on
the field, Dude, In thesecond half, up up until that fourth
down turnover at midfield, Washington scoredon what one drive? Yeah right?
You know, so all these peoplesay, oh, Washington was going to
score no matter what. When theygot it back, dude, man,
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they'd scored on one drive on secondhalf. Oregon made it just as they
were bottling them up, you know. So now I can't say conclusively what
the percentageots were of it coming back, but you know, if you're talking
averages, I mean, your youraverage drive that starts inside the fifteen averages
one point seven points per drive.Now, is that less than forty three
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percent on converting the fourth down andmidfield? Probably? Right? And in
college football, the more times youget somebody to snat you got remember these
are all eighteen to twenty two yearolds. There's down in distance pressure as
well. The farther they got togo, the more snaps they have to
do, the greater the chance ofmaking a mistake. That's why a long
field is so good. It's bendon't break. When you give them half
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a field. There's not a lotof ben there. And so I've just
whether it's Oregon or anybody else inthat exact situation out of taken both field
goals, and I'd have kicked itaway up for with whatever time was left
and try to let my defense holdon. We're talking with Dave bar two
college football Matri's hearing the Rips CityDrive. Now, with the clients that
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you work with, will you devisea plan if they ask you to give
them all those different scenarios so theycan kind of have a sheet to work
off of of when to go forwardand what not to. Yeah, it's
it's it's always a basic one thatwe have. It's a it's a go
no go situation, right, andsome defenses, so like like a Michigan
if you pull up their chart,you're never going for it at any point,
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right because when you look at theirtheir their stop numbers on first,
second, third down, you knowwith one yard future there's no room there,
right, and so you know itis going to change depending on the
team. But we try to simplifyit into the point of if you're in
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this situation, the numbers give youthe green light. If you're in this
situation, the numbers give you thered light. And like I said,
a good rule of thumb when you'rewatching college football, if it's fourth and
three or more and it's a qualitygame, not not you know, not
USC against you know, you seeDavis. Okay, we're talking a game
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where both offenses and both defenses aregood. If it's if you're going for
two before the fourth quarter and there'sno score pressure, if you're going for
it on fourth down and it's morethan three, the numbers are against you
every single time, Dave, Iwant to ask you about one that chat
and I discuss all the time,and it played out in that Arizona USC
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game, whether in overtime, Arizonabig underdog and that have the ball last
in overtime they score a touchdown.My feeling has always been, if you're
a big underdog, you're on theroad, you got one player to be
USC, go for two in thatsituation and beat them because you're gott to
probably be the two pointer in thenext overtime the one after that. Anyway,
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why not just use it there?What do you think of that?
Right? Right? Well? Imean what did I just say? Okay,
what you say? The numbers areyou're going to convert a two point
conversion about forty three percent of thetime, right, Okay, So if
you're sitting there, if you're Arizonaand USC Heck, if you're Jed Vish
and somebody goes, dude, we'renot even going to play the football game.
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You get a two point conversion towin. Right now? Are you
taking it? Yeah? You are, right now, right now, right
now, now. Now. Whatmay influence it, though, is depending
on how you feel your defense isplaying relative to their offense. How is
your event playing relative to the defense. Even if you're an underdog at that
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point in the game, Jed maybe thinking, we're the better teams.
I want to extend this and letthem make the mistake versus trying to win
it. But I hope he's notthinking. I hope he's not thinking he's
going to stop Caleb Williams because hewas his was stopped this last week as
o baby. Yeah really yeah,they got, they got smoked. They
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got. Oh yeah, we'll welcometo big ten weather Southern California. Yeah.
Get used to that the rest ofyour life. Yeah, I get
used to it. Get used toa baby. So based on what you
know, based on what you know, so you think Landing is just operating
off of emotion and feel and kindof firing from the hip on those decisions
on fort that I do because henever mentions that he's referencing anybody or anything.
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You know, this is our culture, this is what we do,
right, And I want to say, your culture should win that decision forty
three percent of the time versus youknow, it's a forty sixty decisions.
And like I said, he's gottensome bad luck, but every time he's
done this, the odds event againsthim. Okay, And he's also doing
it in a tight situation against gooddefenses. I mean, Oregon State had
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the number one defense in the PacCuelve last year and they're on the road,
right. I know they couldn't stopanything in that game in the second
half as well, but again,I mean midfield is such you're just giving
the points away really at that point. You know, Washington not as good
of a defense, and the Oregonoffense is better this year than last year.
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But again, fourth and three,if it was fourth and one,
fourth and two in that situation.I know that sounds strange, but that
yard is a humongous difference in collegeand even in the NFL. Yeah,
you know, so it's I dobelieve it's an emotion. It's a cultural
thing that he's trying to build,you know, it just hasn't worked out
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so far. It's the number is. His results are worst expected, but
him having a losing record going forfourth down in the manner that he has
is absolutely out of surprise. Wow. Have you been on any good hunting
trips lately or what? Well?I went on a really bad one last
week. I went meal deer huntingup outside of Burns and uh there was
(16:17):
no meal deer. So that's ahard bilder hunting. That's a lot.
Oh my gosh, man, itwas. And then we got chased out
by the snow and freezing rain.So it was, it was, it
was, It was beautiful. Butthe two weeks before that, I got
in my truck by myself and droveout to uh out near La Grande and
went bow hunting for three days bymyself and uh tagged out on the elk.
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So I called in and got myown and packed out my own bowl
elk. So that was That waspretty awesome experience by myself. That's great.
Man. How's little Jammer doing?Oh dude, he's twelve and he's
feisty. He's feisty. Attack.We got to get our we got to
get our dogs together on on thatone as well. So yeah, I'll
be shot anytime. I'll teach youhow to kill rodents. No, I
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need to man shot bad. Yougot anything else for part two? Godfather?
Yeah, Dave, just tell peopleunderstand how many college teams are you
working with? Now? I workfor seventeen now, so our cap is
our cap is sixty six. Andthe reason we cap it is because we
believe if everybody shouldn't have this,if everybody has it, it becomes metrics,
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non analytics, there's no head.So same thing with the NFL thirty
two teams, we'll work. We'llwork with sixteen. So we got two
of them. We got seventeen collegefootball programs around the country. Actually going
to add an eighteenth this week.Ironically, Yes, at eighteenth this week.
And it's it's the most ironic adI could possibly think of moment that
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would not be well, it wouldkind of be. They would it would?
I look, I've been trying tobeg borrow and steal into that program.
I would have. I would weMy my buddy is a graduate from
Nebraska, so we work for Nebraska. And I'm like, no, you
don't get to talk to Matt Ruletoday. Ever, stop it. I
want to talk to somebody, youknow. So I'm a bit jealous that
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we get to work for his alumni. I would I would have. I
would have loved to have been workingfor Oregon over the years, and I
won't give up that dream. Butthe irony is pretty cuts, pretty close
to that one. That's pretty awesome, man, bar two, you're the
best. Congrats on breaking into theNFL. This is a welcome news,
man. That's awesome. Yeah,I am. I'm beyond stoke, brother,
(18:33):
beyond stoked. I appreciate it.I appreciate you guys having me on,
and I hope the listeners enjoyed thislittle segment talking about the numbers.
You got it, man, appreciateit. Bar Toos, love you guys.
Take it easy. Thank you man. Thanks buddy,
Dave bar two is back on theshow What's Up, Buddy, dude?
And at NFL maybe we broke intotwo franchises doing some consulting for the NFL.
Gosh, that's awesome, man.What's that been like so far?
What's that been like so far withthe league? Kingly all over? Well,
one of them, I mean,it's it's I got I gotta tell
(00:20):
you. One of them is myfranchise, the one I grew up rooting
for, so to have the Imean, this is it's the equivalent of
you getting a call from the Broncosand then telling you to come work for
him. Oh, that's awesome.Gosh's right. Could you get tell you
think about that? Bartwo. Youactually get to give information that can help
(00:42):
make a difference in your team's process. Yeah. Yeah, And that's That's
one of the things I love aboutwhat I do at the college football level
as well, is you know,no longer a might just a duck A
lot rooting for the ducks I am. I'm I root for all my teams,
and it's mouth heartbreaking and fantastic atthe same time. But it certainly
(01:07):
makes life exciting every Saturday when I'mnot out hunting. That's awesome. Okay,
David, let's get down to business. I know you're a number sky
and you've got these things figured out. You're our guru, man, you
are the guru of this stuff.And I'm gonna ask you. We're going
to go through these fourth down decisionsof Dan Lanning, and each one of
them. I'm going to ask youfirst about the one right before the half,
(01:32):
fourth and the three? What doyou think six seconds to go in
the half, you take the points, you kick the damn field goal?
Tell us why you always kick thefield goal? Ironically day all the way
back to twenty ten Ducks Auburn firstand goal barner, second and goal Thomis
(01:57):
first, the third and goal barner, fourth and goal barner. That would
have won the game, right,that would have won the football game,
But it didn't. And ever sincethat game, I have been tracking red
zone fourth down efficiency and games thatare decided by three points or less like
this weekend, since two thousand,since twenty eleven, since that twy ten
(02:21):
National Championship games, teams that gofor it, go for fourth down and
three or more in the red zonewin forty three of the football games.
Wow it is you don't do it. It's it's almost the exact same number
as going for two. Teams thathave won football games, going for two
(02:45):
is about forty four win rating.Now those are one score games because you're
just going for two. It's theextra one point, right, And all
those years that give me an example, all those years too, Kelly went
for two. It affected one gameoutcome one. He was one and oh,
I'll give him that. And Danhas done it now, well,
he's done five fourth downs that havemade him three and oh oh in three
(03:07):
and time games. Okay, butrealistically he's had a bit of that luck
you would expect in those five fourthdowns he went for that, two of
them would have converted. He shouldhave got at least one win out of
that whole thing. Now, thelast one shouldn't even had to go for,
right, because if he kicked thetwo field goals, he's up nine.
There's no decision. Yeah right.But what I tell the client is
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it's a simple rule of thumb.Go for two only if time and score
pressure demand it, which means fourthquarter, and you only go for in
the red zone. It's really upto you on fourth and one, fourth
and two, fourth and three,you're dancing with the devil. I mean
this weekend, Dan isn't the onlyone that lost going for it in the
(03:52):
red zone. There was three teamsthat did it, one to one.
Illinois beat Maryland on it, Ulmlost a one point game Texas State going
for it in the red zone.So I know a lot of people say,
Dave, well, what if hemade it? What if you know
something? Even if he was fiveor five the next time he did it,
I'd say, don't do it.Yeah, right, because the numbers
(04:15):
are the numbers. It's really simple. If you go for it, the
odds are you're not going to makeit, and if the game's close,
the odds are you're going to losefootball game. And he's been stinked that
with it, he's going three.I do appreciate that when he comes out,
he says, I'm not doing thisby any book. It's just gut
feel, it's emotion, it's gaincontrol, right. But when it comes
(04:38):
right down to it, what everybodyasks me is always the same thing.
Would you have done the same thingin that situation? And the number say
you in the red zone? Youalways take the point because if it is
a tight game. The odds areyou're going to be on the losing end
of that thing, Dave, justa question. Though he's done it so
many times, it makes me wonderif he's thinking that the same way you
(05:00):
did when you said he was kindof unlucky. The percentages are almost in
his favor if he keeps trying right. Yeah, Oh my god, dude.
I was so gutless Saturday morning.My son was all jacked up for
the football game, and I said, dude, it's going to be a
close game. It's gonna be ahell of a game. And watch the
same thing come down to a tightgame that Dan blows by making bad decisions
(05:26):
when the numbers go against him,and I'll be son of them that it
didn't happen again. I'm just sittingthere looking at the TV. When he
went for it on fourth down anddidn't get it in the red zone the
first time, you know, mydata partner in Tulsa texted me just straight
up shake my head. I waslike, I can't believe this. And
then it happened again. I'm like, there's six points right, you could
you almost knew what was going tohappen, and they still had a shot.
(05:50):
I mean they were well within fieldgoal range, but they didn't need
to be there. So nothing againstDan or anything like that. It's just
the numbers are I would say thesame thing to every head coach. You
know, you don't go for itever in those situations if you're going to
pull an upset. And that wasn'tan upset obviously, but if you're going
(06:13):
to try to pull an upset,and I write I write a white paper
for our clients every year. It'scalled the Anatomy of an Upset, and
we update it every year and weprofile the behavior of what it takes to
upset a team in a football game. And one of the common things that
comes up is don't do anything weird. If you're going to pull an upset.
The other team's got to make themistake. The team that's favorites got
(06:34):
to have the off date. Yougot to play perfect football. You got
to stick to the numbers. Youdon't have to do anything special. You
got to get lucky bombing passes overthe top for explosive scores. You can't
turn over the ball. So youknow, a game like this, I
would say, over and over,no matter how many times are you successful
going forward. Punt that thing awaybecause how many points did Washington score starting
(06:57):
driving under twenty? Yesday seven?Just play the numbers. Play the numbers.
Have faith in your defense. Rememberwhen you're saying, hey, I
got faith in my players. Well, when you say you got faith in
your players, and there's two sides, you're kind of saying you don't have
faith in the other side. Andyou have a top ten defense coming in
and you're a defensive coordinator of anational champion, Dude, play some freaking
(07:18):
defense and punt that ball away.That's amazing, now, Dave. So
what do you advise your clients onthem when it comes to fourth down decision
making? When when should you gofor it on fourth down? And how
do you advise and what's the planyou come up with? Well, really
a lot of it. It dependson situationally on the game. Because one
(07:40):
of the first things we'll do iswe will go in and we will say,
okay, now in September, wemake no advice whatsoever okay, because
we don't know who they're playing.Right, you can say, well,
this team was look at tc thisteam was TCU X last year. That's
not the same team. Things constantlychange in college football, So advising people
on going for or on fourth downin September is a moot point because we
(08:03):
don't know what we're dealing with.So by October we know, Okay,
the defense is of ex quality.The offense you're facing is of ex quality.
Right, Because when you're making afourth down decision like that last fourth
down, let's say that's the mostone, that's the one burned in people's
minds right now, you have tonot only consider your odds of making it
about forty percent, but the oddsof the strength of the offense versus your
(08:26):
defense going the other way, youknow, putting geting in the ball of
the fifteen or inside the twenty versusbasically on the fifty five, and so
all of that, it depends onwhat you are facing in college football.
Ultimately, the rule of Thun kindof comes down to fourth and one,
fourth and two. It's up toyou fourth and three. The odds are
(08:48):
against you fourth and three, fourthfour, fourth and five going forward,
because most of the college football gamesare blowout, it's not going to affect
a game. So if you thinkit is, it needs to be a
calculated risk based on the distance,and based on the defense you're facing and
the quality of offense that could begoing in the other direction. If you're
playing Iowa, you go for itevery time because they've got a crappy offense,
(09:11):
right, you don't worry about it. So it really varies game by
game in each scenario. Okay,I'm curious though, Dave, give me
the breakdown on if they would havepunted average punt puts, I would say,
puts the Hoskies inside the twenty somewhere, fifteen, ten, five,
whatever. Right, if you getlucky with a punt, what are the
(09:33):
odds then based on if they youknow, they gave them the ball at
their own forty eight, I think, well, who knows what it is?
Really a lot of people like tosay, well, this is what
the odds are, but they're justlooking at averages of all of college football,
right, And I think a lotof these decisions I keep going back
to it is there's really not thatmuch analytics involved with it. A lot
(09:56):
of it is game time, situationand scenario. You know, in the
first half, you probably don't doit because Washington's going up and down on
the field, Dude, In thesecond half, up up until that fourth
down turnover at midfield, Washington scoredon what one drive? Yeah right?
You know, so all these peoplesay, oh, Washington was going to
score no matter what. When theygot it back, dude, man,
(10:20):
they'd scored on one drive on secondhalf. Oregon made it just as they
were bottling them up, you know. So now I can't say conclusively what
the percentageots were of it coming back, but you know, if you're talking
averages, I mean, your youraverage drive that starts inside the fifteen averages
one point seven points per drive.Now, is that less than forty three
(10:43):
percent on converting the fourth down andmidfield? Probably? Right? And in
college football, the more times youget somebody to snat you got remember these
are all eighteen to twenty two yearolds. There's down in distance pressure as
well. The farther they got togo, the more snaps they have to
do, the greater the chance ofmaking a mistake. That's why a long
field is so good. It's bendon't break. When you give them half
(11:03):
a field. There's not a lotof ben there. And so I've just
whether it's Oregon or anybody else inthat exact situation out of taken both field
goals, and I'd have kicked itaway up for with whatever time was left
and try to let my defense holdon. We're talking with Dave bar two
college football Matri's hearing the Rips CityDrive. Now, with the clients that
(11:26):
you work with, will you devisea plan if they ask you to give
them all those different scenarios so theycan kind of have a sheet to work
off of of when to go forwardand what not to. Yeah, it's
it's it's always a basic one thatwe have. It's a it's a go
no go situation, right, andsome defenses, so like like a Michigan
if you pull up their chart,you're never going for it at any point,
(11:48):
right because when you look at theirtheir their stop numbers on first,
second, third down, you knowwith one yard future there's no room there,
right, and so you know itis going to change depending on the
team. But we try to simplifyit into the point of if you're in
(12:09):
this situation, the numbers give youthe green light. If you're in this
situation, the numbers give you thered light. And like I said,
a good rule of thumb when you'rewatching college football, if it's fourth and
three or more and it's a qualitygame, not not you know, not
USC against you know, you seeDavis. Okay, we're talking a game
(12:31):
where both offenses and both defenses aregood. If it's if you're going for
two before the fourth quarter and there'sno score pressure, if you're going for
it on fourth down and it's morethan three, the numbers are against you
every single time, Dave, Iwant to ask you about one that chat
and I discuss all the time,and it played out in that Arizona USC
(12:54):
game, whether in overtime, Arizonabig underdog and that have the ball last
in overtime they score a touchdown.My feeling has always been, if you're
a big underdog, you're on theroad, you got one player to be
USC, go for two in thatsituation and beat them because you're gott to
probably be the two pointer in thenext overtime the one after that. Anyway,
(13:18):
why not just use it there?What do you think of that?
Right? Right? Well? Imean what did I just say? Okay,
what you say? The numbers areyou're going to convert a two point
conversion about forty three percent of thetime, right, Okay, So if
you're sitting there, if you're Arizonaand USC Heck, if you're Jed Vish
and somebody goes, dude, we'renot even going to play the football game.
(13:41):
You get a two point conversion towin. Right now? Are you
taking it? Yeah? You are, right now, right now, right
now, now. Now. Whatmay influence it, though, is depending
on how you feel your defense isplaying relative to their offense. How is
your event playing relative to the defense. Even if you're an underdog at that
(14:03):
point in the game, Jed maybe thinking, we're the better teams.
I want to extend this and letthem make the mistake versus trying to win
it. But I hope he's notthinking. I hope he's not thinking he's
going to stop Caleb Williams because hewas his was stopped this last week as
o baby. Yeah really yeah,they got, they got smoked. They
(14:26):
got. Oh yeah, we'll welcometo big ten weather Southern California. Yeah.
Get used to that the rest ofyour life. Yeah, I get
used to it. Get used toa baby. So based on what you
know, based on what you know, so you think Landing is just operating
off of emotion and feel and kindof firing from the hip on those decisions
on fort that I do because henever mentions that he's referencing anybody or anything.
(14:48):
You know, this is our culture, this is what we do,
right, And I want to say, your culture should win that decision forty
three percent of the time versus youknow, it's a forty sixty decisions.
And like I said, he's gottensome bad luck, but every time he's
done this, the odds event againsthim. Okay, And he's also doing
it in a tight situation against gooddefenses. I mean, Oregon State had
(15:11):
the number one defense in the PacCuelve last year and they're on the road,
right. I know they couldn't stopanything in that game in the second
half as well, but again,I mean midfield is such you're just giving
the points away really at that point. You know, Washington not as good
of a defense, and the Oregonoffense is better this year than last year.
(15:33):
But again, fourth and three,if it was fourth and one,
fourth and two in that situation.I know that sounds strange, but that
yard is a humongous difference in collegeand even in the NFL. Yeah,
you know, so it's I dobelieve it's an emotion. It's a cultural
thing that he's trying to build,you know, it just hasn't worked out
(15:54):
so far. It's the number is. His results are worst expected, but
him having a losing record going forfourth down in the manner that he has
is absolutely out of surprise. Wow. Have you been on any good hunting
trips lately or what? Well?I went on a really bad one last
week. I went meal deer huntingup outside of Burns and uh there was
(16:17):
no meal deer. So that's ahard bilder hunting. That's a lot.
Oh my gosh, man, itwas. And then we got chased out
by the snow and freezing rain.So it was, it was, it
was, It was beautiful. Butthe two weeks before that, I got
in my truck by myself and droveout to uh out near La Grande and
went bow hunting for three days bymyself and uh tagged out on the elk.
(16:40):
So I called in and got myown and packed out my own bowl
elk. So that was That waspretty awesome experience by myself. That's great.
Man. How's little Jammer doing?Oh dude, he's twelve and he's
feisty. He's feisty. Attack.We got to get our we got to
get our dogs together on on thatone as well. So yeah, I'll
be shot anytime. I'll teach youhow to kill rodents. No, I
(17:03):
need to man shot bad. Yougot anything else for part two? Godfather?
Yeah, Dave, just tell peopleunderstand how many college teams are you
working with? Now? I workfor seventeen now, so our cap is
our cap is sixty six. Andthe reason we cap it is because we
believe if everybody shouldn't have this,if everybody has it, it becomes metrics,
(17:23):
non analytics, there's no head.So same thing with the NFL thirty
two teams, we'll work. We'llwork with sixteen. So we got two
of them. We got seventeen collegefootball programs around the country. Actually going
to add an eighteenth this week.Ironically, Yes, at eighteenth this week.
And it's it's the most ironic adI could possibly think of moment that
(17:49):
would not be well, it wouldkind of be. They would it would?
I look, I've been trying tobeg borrow and steal into that program.
I would have. I would weMy my buddy is a graduate from
Nebraska, so we work for Nebraska. And I'm like, no, you
don't get to talk to Matt Ruletoday. Ever, stop it. I
want to talk to somebody, youknow. So I'm a bit jealous that
(18:11):
we get to work for his alumni. I would I would have. I
would have loved to have been workingfor Oregon over the years, and I
won't give up that dream. Butthe irony is pretty cuts, pretty close
to that one. That's pretty awesome, man, bar two, you're the
best. Congrats on breaking into theNFL. This is a welcome news,
man. That's awesome. Yeah,I am. I'm beyond stoke, brother,
(18:33):
beyond stoked. I appreciate it.I appreciate you guys having me on,
and I hope the listeners enjoyed thislittle segment talking about the numbers.
You got it, man, appreciateit. Bar Toos, love you guys.
Take it easy. Thank you man. Thanks buddy,
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