January 24, 2025 • 35 mins
Despite battling a nasty case of alkaptonuria, Mat Harrison helps break down the AFC and NFC Championship games.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargion.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchi and
my co host today, the ailing Matt Harrison.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, my knee pit is really Oh that's a throwback
right there.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Oh yeah, that's your showing your age if you get
back to the knee pit. We haven't had a knee
pit reference on this show. And what do you think,
like ten years.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
It's been a while, but I heard you and uh,
Paul Allen and Chad Greenway talking about Dennis Pitta today
and it brought me all back to the Todd heat
Memorial injury report, all that good times back then.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
The Todd Heap Memorial injury Report. That's how we started
those episodes of Fantasy Football Weekly, back in the day
when it was really hard to get injury information. So
you're like, the first thing we got to get out
of the way is who's healthy and who's not. Now,
that's just not times have changed and.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
We figured out how to work it into the matchups,
and yeah, take less time.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
I think that I think it is better this way
that we've that we've done it. But we missed Todd Heap.
I was always my intention to get Todd Heap on
the show. But and we could probably get him now
because what's Todd Heap doing? He'd probably enjoy the opportunity
to come on the show, But well, you know what
are we going to do with him now?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
He's probably in a hospital somewhere.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Let's hope he's not dead somewhere with all the things
that have gone wrong for him. And I hope he'd
take it with a sense of humor to know that
there was a show out there that named their injury
report after Todd Heap.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Who knows, he might be really angry about it.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Could be, it could be. We're gonna have a ton
of fun today, Matt. We're gonna break down the AFC
and NFC championship games fantasy football weekly style with letter
grades and all the players and see how see who
we like, who we don't like, what kind of sleepers
we can unveil a lot of ways you can put
this to good use DFS betting. In some cases, you
(02:23):
may sell fantasy leagues playoff fantasy leagues, so you can
change rosters. I'm in one of those. We've got one
of them ageeteen leagues dot Com, so there's a lot
of different ways you could skin this cat. I want
to start with the Eagles Commander's game. That's our first
game on Sunday. And I think, if I'm correct about
the scheduling on this, I haven't. I haven't looked at
it a while, Matt. I think we're going mid afternoon
(02:44):
for the first game and then prime time for the
second game.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Correct, Yeah, two pm Central time, so three pm Eastern
is the first game.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Got you? Got you? And that first game is Commander's Eagles.
That is your game, Matt. Let's well, let's take it
away and maybe you can start where if you want.
But I mean, the a story here for sure on
the Commander's side is Jade and Daniels.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Why wouldn't we start with him? I mean, he's the
top scoring fantasy player in the Fantasy in the playoffs,
so far, better than Lamar and Josh Allen and Stroud
and Saquon and Derrick Henry, all those guys had two
games as well. He's seen this Eagles defense twice before,
and Eagles defense that has faced the thirtieth best strength
of schedule this year, so maybe not.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
The toughest matchups.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
So when they met in Week sixteen, Daniels threw for
two hundred and fifty eight yards and five touchdowns, and
then he added eighty one yards on the ground on
nine carries, and then last week Stafford was Yeah, last
week Stafford was able to throw for three twenty four
and two in snowy conditions. I don't know if I
(03:53):
trust this Eagles defense to be this like stone cold
lock that everybody seems to think it is, and it doesn't.
Seemed like the moment is too big for Jade and Daniels.
So I've got an A grade on him, and I
think he's my favorite quarterback of the four going this
weekend in terms of.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Just like fantasy point potential. Yeah, I could.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
I think the Eagle ranking all of them, he would
be my number one.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
The Eagles secondary has been great, legitimately great. I could
see I could see this being an all or nothing
scenario for Jadon Daniels, But the five touchdowns last game
is pretty telling you know. What we know is it
won't be like the moment's too big for Jaden.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Dan definitely, because that kid is I think, definitely I
shoot for the moon kind of guy. And his favorite
target is Terry mclaur and Terry, who's been the top
scoring wide receiver in the in the playoffs so far
for Fantasy only, Nico Collins has more receptions than Terry
in the playoffs, and I have a feeling that McLaurin
will get one more reception to at least tie Nico
(04:56):
Collins this week. McLaurin scored in seven of his last
eight games, including the Week sixteen matchup against the Eagles,
where he managed five catches sixty yards in a score.
But the problem is in Week eleven, McLaurin was almost
blanked by the Eagles one catch, ten yards yep, and
Philly is number three in the league and fewest yards
(05:16):
allowed to perimeter receivers this season. I've got a be
on McLaurin, but since it's an offseason show, I can
give him a B minus.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
I think, ah, okay, look, you stepped up, you're sick,
you're doing the show. Anyway, We're gonna give you this minus.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
All right, I think the sleeper here is Diami Brown,
who is actually the Darius Slay slayer, and he's let
lock go against Darius Slay in this one. According to
Pro Football Focus, in thirty career receiving snaps against Darius Slay,
Diami Brown is averaging three point seven yards per route run.
(05:58):
It's pretty significant for that snap total. Yeah, and Brown
is sneakily tied with McLaurin in receptions during the playoffs
with eleven and has more yards than Terry.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
So.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
By the way, Danny Brown is only forty four on DraftKings,
and he's kind of a nice contrarian play. I built
some internal lineups over at fanball dot Com with with
my coworkers there. I switched out McLaurin for Diami Brown
and just took the cash discount. I'll throw a C
grade on him, but it's probably closer to like a
(06:32):
C plus grade for Diami Brown.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
You're really pushing the envelope, now, Yeah, See that was
what I always fear. You do it one time and
then the flood gets open.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Yeah, see that's what happens.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
That's well. Now, it's the problem is, you guys can't
just take the win. You have to expand it.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
I have regrets, all right, all right, Uh, the last
receiver you might want to start as Zach Ertz. He's
were on a team high three hundred and eighteen routes
from the slot this season and thirty five percent of
the Eagles receptions allowed this season. We're out of the slot. Okay,
so you're looking at roughly one third of your target
(07:14):
totals maybe going to zach Ertz in this game. We
don't forget, by the way, Yes, absolutely a big revenge
game in Philly. Scored in the first game, not in
the second, so there's some opportunity for Ertz to cross
the goal line in that revenge game. I like Ertz.
I think he's my second favorite tight end. Play this weekend.
He gets a B grade for me. And then I
(07:37):
think the Brian Robinson Austin Eckler thing. This is super interesting.
Robinson did absolutely nothing in the wild card round versus Tampa,
but he was pretty steady last week in the Detroit game,
fifteen carries, seventy seven yards, two touchdowns, which was fantastic. Yeah,
five point one yards per carry. He was not targeted
(07:58):
at all last week though, and I think that's because
Austin Eckler's finally all the way healthy.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
Yeah, for sure, Eckler running Mike, He's healthy. He looks good.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Yeah. He caught four of his eleven or four of
his are sorry, he caught all four of his targets
for forty one yards. That's an average of ten point
three yards per catch, which is down from his season
average of ten point five yards to catch, by the.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Way, Yes, but that's actually by the way. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
He leads running backs in the league in yards after
catch per reception this year with eleven point nine.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
He's basically receiving the ball behind the line of scrimmage
and scampering out for about twelve yards every time. It
is only meeting with the Eagles. This season, Eckler had
eight catches and eighty nine receiving yards. So I think
that there's a possibility, and this is my boldest take
of the weekend, Eckler might see more targets this weekend
(08:56):
out of any player in both games.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Wow. That's probably betable somehow somewhere, And you know, I
bet the reception side is definitely betable, and I bet
it definitely would I bet his odds enormous.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
I'll give Eckler a B grade here. Robinson gets a
bench grade for me.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Though.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
The Eagles have only allowed five running back rushing touchdowns
on the season, so things will probably dry up and
it will be more like he did against Tampa, which
was not very good in the run game. Switch over
to the Eagle side. Saquon Barkley is A. He's an
A grade. He's the fantasy Fonsie. He's the fantasy Ardvark.
(09:36):
He's the building block of anything you do in playoff Fantasy.
You can't even fade him, no, like of the four
teams left, he's the only running back that should be
in one hundred percent of DFS lineups like he should
do like you fade him, you're just playing with fire.
In two games against Washington, the first one twenty eight
(09:56):
touches one hundred and ninety eight yards and two scores,
second one twenty nine touches one hundred and fifty yards
and two scores. And Washington faced Detroit last week and
Jamior Gibbs and Gibbs could have done whatever he wanted
against the Commanders, and yeah, for so for reasons unknown,
after averaging seven and a half yards per carry. Gibbs
(10:18):
only had fourteen carries. He got one hundred and five
yards and two scores. He added six catches for seventy yards.
He could have done whatever he wanted and Detroit went
away from him. Yeah, in situations, it's crazy. The Commander's
defense ranked dead last in the league in average rushing
yards before contact to running backs.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Wow, So there's gonna be some room to work with.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
There's room to work with, and you're giving Saquon the ball.
Thirty touches is in play for Saquon, and if the
Eagles lose, it will be because they went away from
Saquon in the run.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
It's uh, you know, and you may have heard this
and listeners may already know it highest over under in
the history of Vegas for rushing yards on a players
over under. Depending on where you're looking, it's between one
hundred and twenty six and one hundred and thirty yards.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Wow. For Barkley, I think it's in play.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
It is in play, and I you know, it's funny.
You can make a case that you should ladder it
up from there because he obliterates this number from on
a pretty regular basis. So there's there's still a scenario
where not only does he go over the say one
hundred and thirty yards, but he goes way over it
and nobody nobody be shocked.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So the key to the rest of this game, I
think is Jalen Hurts. It changes everything you do in
fantasy and betting depending on which Hurts is out there. Now.
The last time he faced the Commanders, he got that
concussion that knocked him out of the game and knocked
the Eagles out of number one seed contention. He has
managed one hundred and thirty one and one and twenty
(11:59):
eight pass and.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
It's two games, right, I mean, everybody assumes that Hurts
is hurt and more more than they're letting on because
he doesn't look like himself and just the productivity is
not there.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Well, get this. Over the season, he's averaging only three
point nine passing yards per dropback, and that's the lowest
total of any quarterback to make the conference championship since
Pro Football Focus started doing stats in two thousand and six.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Wow, holy cow, look at that.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
So not a prolific passer here, and Hurts Week eleven
win against Washington, he managed two or twenty one passing yards,
did not throw a passing touchdown in that game, So
I'm not feeling super confident in the Philly passing game overall.
Here why you can still get some Hurts exposure going.
He ran for thirty nine thirty nine yards in a
score in the week eleven meeting, and he's ran thirteen
(12:52):
times in the two playoff games for one hundred and
six yards in a score. So the Eagles are throwing
caution to the wind if he's if he's hurt about
concussions or anything like that, they're not showing it. They're
making them run still.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
And and you know what, why not? I mean, you know,
at any loss is your last loss, you may as
well run him, I think, Matt.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
Yeah, So I've got a C grade on Hurts. He's
my least favorite quarterback of the four playing this weekend.
But all it takes is a goal line push push
or two and he's going to return value for you.
Uh got aj Brown? He has three receptions over two
playoff games, Yes, which is which is trailing Xavier Hutchinson,
Anthony Miller, and DeMarcus Robinson in that department. He's tied
(13:36):
with Olamide Zechias and Jalen Naylor in receptions in the playoffs. Oh,
by the way, Jalen Naylor has been out.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Of the playoffs, so that's right.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
And also aj Brown reading fine leatherbound books on the sideline,
so we know he's talented. But we also need to
realize that when the Eagles went on their crazy win streak,
it's kind of when his targets dropped and he was
the squeaky wheel for a little bit there and saw
some action again for two games, but then it kind
of went back to what it was before the game
(14:08):
he was targeted the most this year was Week sixteen
against Washington, where he saw fifteen targets in the game
that Jalen Hurts got knocked out and the team lost
that game, by the way, so he still has more
targets than any other Eagles wide receiver in the playoffs,
tied with Dallas Goddard at ten so far in the
last two games. Problem is, the last seven games of
(14:30):
the regular season, the Commanders only allowed seven touchdown passes total,
and Goff only managed one last week in catchup mode
and Baker had two. So we're looking at maybe one
touchdown pass in the game for Hurts. I think that
would be the safe bet.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
I think that is the safe bet.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
The odds are that it's Brown getting that, and the
sportsbooks agree. Of all the receivers for the Eagles, he's
plus one fifty five for at any time touchdown. Brown
ranks second in Pro Football Focused grades when facing man coverage,
and Washington runs the eighth most man coverage in the league.
So it's like a Sea dart on Brown. But I
(15:11):
don't feel great about it right now. Devanta Smith, he
caught all of his eight playoff targets for seventy six yards,
but he's been one of the strangest players to forecast
since Halloween. Since Week ten, he's had six games under
sixty yards and he's scored four times. But he's only
had two games with double digit PPR points in that span. Yeah,
(15:31):
which is crazy. He's just too volatile. I'm gonna leave
DeVonta Smith on the bench, and then Dallas Goddard is
the last guy.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I like him here. I'll be interested to hear what
you think.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I got a C grade on Goddard comes in with
a questionable tag, but he's gonna definitely play in this one.
Tied for the target lead for the Eagles in the
playoffs with ten he has scored. He sees a lot
of targets when the opposing defense is blitzing. Goddard ranks
eighth in the league amongst touchdowns in yards sorry amongst
(16:03):
tight ends in yards per route run when facing the blitz,
and Washington Blitz is at the sixth highest rate in
the NFL. So it looks like there could be quite
a few targets going his way. In the week eleven meeting,
Goddard caught all five of his targets for sixty one yards. Yeah,
it seems about where he's gonna be. I don't know
if he can get much more than that, though, because
(16:24):
Hurtz just doesn't throw the ball well.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I still think if he's going to get into that
five catch sixty yard range and maybe a forty chance
of a touchdown, I think that's a B grade for
a tight end.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Okay, can I talk into it. He's still like zach
Ertz more than Goddart. But I think I got got
Art as my third ranked tight end this weekend, all right,
So that's all I got On the Eagles and Commanders.
My prediction is I think the Commanders pull this off.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
You're not alone, the betting public is hitting the Commander's
money line pretty hard. And I think the Eagles just don't.
The Eagles look like they're good at a lot of things.
They just don't look dominating like you want them to.
And the Commanders have overcome a lot to get here,
and Jaden Daniels just has got the vibe of a
(17:15):
winner that honestly, Jalen Hurts doesn't seem to have, even
though he's won tons of games.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Well, and if you think about the Eagles right now
and all season, really, they've just there's just been doubts
about the whole team all year. Nick sirianni Is, I
mean they're talking about if he would have lost to
the Rams last week, he would have been fired. Maybe
if he loses to the Commanders this week, he's fired.
It's possible. Yeah, And it seems like that locker room's
(17:41):
kind of been kind of in dismay right now, and
it just seems like the Commanders are the team of destiny. Also,
their colors are in the Super Bowl logo, so well then, yeah,
I like that we got that going and it works
every year.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
If I got to just pick the winner, it would
be I'm still on Philadelphia because of the defensive abilities
they've got so much better than what the commanders have
seen so far. But you know, we'll see and they,
you know they they again. Five touchdowns by Jaden in
the earlier matchups suggest that maybe the Eagles defense is
and what we think they are. Let's take a quick
(18:17):
break when we come back. Buffalo at Kansas City. Stay tuned,
Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchie and Matt Harrison
with you. You'll be back next week if you're alive, Matt,
I mean, if you.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Know, yeah, I'll be next week. We'll talk Super Bowl games,
including my prop bet game, which will be live for
sale somewhere online next week.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Mysteriously ways to make an already great Super Bowl even
better by adding by gamifying your Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
We love it absolutely.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Buffalo in Kansas City is the evening game on Sunday Night.
Of course, these teams have met regularly in the postseason,
and they play each other in the regular season pretty often.
Buffalo's won four straight regular season matches matchups between these teams,
three of which were in Kansas City, so they have
been able to win in Kansas City before, but they've
(19:16):
lost three prost season meetings in the Allen Mahomes era,
including that crazy twenty twenty two playoff game, which is
one of the greatest games of all time.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
I think everybody's hoping for a repeat of that game.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Maybe different outcome. Yes, yeah, you would really think that
you could hold a lead when you're kicking off with
thirteen seconds left by.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Not the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Not the Bills. Not two years ago. When these teams
met a week eleven, Buffalo won thirty to twenty one.
Buffalo led it half and then never gave up the lead,
but it was really closer than that nine point final
score would suggest it was. The outcome is very much
in doubt through most of the game. Current line Kansas City,
he favored by one and a half. The weather is
not gonna be much of a factor. It'll be chilly,
(20:04):
but not cold, thirty eight degrees, no precipitation. So let's uh.
I'm gonna start with my favorite Bills player, Khalil Shakir.
I loved him in the preseason. He's had a nice season,
targeted a career high twelve times in the earlier meeting.
(20:25):
The week eleven meeting. Between these twelve times. Shakir usually
catches pretty much everything you throw to him, although here
he turned those twelve passes only into eight receptions in
the earlier matchup. Now, importantly, he runs from the slot.
He's gonna face off against slot cornerback Chamari Connor. He
allows an eighty five percent catch rate on passes in
(20:47):
his coverage. That is the worst completion percentage of any
cornerback in the league. I love this matchup for Khalil Shakir.
The only thing, the only reason I'm giving Khalil Shakir
a B grade instead of an A grade is they
don't target him in the end zone and he rarely scores.
He has just four touchdowns on the season despite eighty
(21:09):
eight receptions. He's my favorite of the Bills receivers. And
then after that, I don't think there's a lot to
do with Bills receivers. So you've got Shakir and then
probably like one of the other receivers will have a
good game. But it's Kean Coleman, Amari Cooper, mac Hollins,
even Curtis Samuel last week, they all ran between ten
(21:32):
and fourteen routes. That's just not enough. You know, they're
shuffling these guys in and out. I mean, Shakir's on
the field a lot. The other four are just rotating
in and route and ten to fourteen routes is not
enough to make any of them fantasy bankable. Whoever does
run on the outside, which will primarily be Cooper and
Coleman and Hollins two, I guess they will get a
(21:54):
big dose of Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson, who are
both above average guys. Mcduffy held Nico Collins in check,
and he's way better than all of those guys. So
we've got bench grades on all the other receivers. What
about Dalton Kincaid, you might be asking, Matt, what about
Dalton Kincaid? Charge, Oh, well, let me tell you about
(22:14):
Dalton Kincaid. You know, I think he's a C grade
viable starter because the Chiefs have struggled against tight ends
all year, allowing the second most receptions and the most
yards to tight ends. Frustratingly, though, Kinkaid and Knocks split
playing time basically right down the middle, with almost identical
average snaps and routes. Run Kincaid invisible for basically three weeks,
(22:40):
but he does average a more respectable four catches per
game throughout the rest of the year. So in a pinch,
it's only there's only four games. There's not many tight
ends to work with here. I guess you will throw
a C grade on Dalton Kincaid. So where does us
leave us with Josh, you may be wondering. Over Allen's
(23:03):
last seven meetings, Steve Spagnolo has been unable to stop
Allen's rushing, averaging fifty eight rushing yards and zero point
seven rushing touchdowns per game, and that includes four rushing
touchdowns in his most recent three games against Kansas City.
I love Josh Allen on the ground here. And if
you look at what some mobile quarterbacks have done to
(23:25):
Kansas City lately Week eighteen, Bo Nicks forty seven rushing yards.
Week seventeen, Russell Wilson fifty five rushing yards. So and
on the season, the Chiefs saw the fifth most quarterback
rushing yards. So I believe this is a really nice
running game for Josh Allen here through the air, I'm
less optimistic as usually heard. I've only got the B
(23:47):
grade on Khalil Shakir and a C grade on Dalton
Kinkaid and bench grades and everybody else. And he's thrown
exactly and only one touchdown in three straight games against
Kansas City, so I don't love him through the air here.
Kansas City's coming off an eight sack game, I believe, Yeah,
eight sack game of c. J. Stroud, which will not
happen again here. But still, you know, Josh Allen's mobility
(24:12):
will help make sure that. In fact, he's been sacked
zero and zero times in his last two games against
the Chiefs, so I think his offensive line will hold
up just fine here. I've still got the A grade
on Josh Allen because of the rushing.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
So no, do you think that people are downplaying how
good the Chiefs defense has been this year simply because
they're sick of the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Well, the attention is always going to be Patrick Mahomes, right,
But the reason that they won all the games they
won sixteen and one in the regular is their defense.
The defense was the was way I think way better.
Well in that way, was better than their offense was
throughout the course of the season, my opinion. Let's go
(24:53):
to Kansas City side. I've got one A grade for you,
Travis Kelcey, Matt. We got playoff Kelsey last week. Eight targets,
seven catches, one hundred and seventeen yards, and a touchdown,
looking nothing like the Travis Kelcey who struggled to put
up just, you know, really modest scoring through most of
the year. I think he scored in three games during
(25:16):
the regular season. Does that sound right, man?
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:19):
I think it was. So the Bills shut down Kelsey
in the week eleven meeting, but what happened was because
they were putting so much attention on Kelsey. Noah Gray
got two touchdowns in that game. And I think they'll
play Kelsey more straight up because now they've proved. Chiefs
proved they can go to Noah Gray if they need to.
(25:39):
So I think they play Kelsey straight up and good
titands generally have success against the Bills. Sam Laporter recently,
Hunter Henry recently, Tyler Conklin last week as they likely,
and Mark Andrews had good games. So I've still got
the eight ground and Kelsey. But man, as he looks slow, Matt,
he has lost a step for sure.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
I think that if you're in the kind of playoff
league where you set a lineup every week, and if
you're not near the front or your way behind. I
think the Noah Gray angle is super interesting here because
I think people will just be completely off of him
because he didn't do anything in the playoff game last week.
He's got that track record, and I think that they
trust him. I think that he's one of the two
(26:22):
or three most trustworthy receivers on Kansas City right now,
and I like him as a dart throw.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
So I love that you brought this up, and I'll
do use that as my transition. How could Noah Gray
be like the second most trustworthy receiver? Well, the wide
receivers for Kansas City last week, only Xavier Worthy caught
a pass. All the rest were zero receptions. Unbelievable. Hopkins,
(26:50):
Brown Smith, Schuster, Watson. They're all low volume, touchdown dependent
guys who give you virtually nothing if they don't score.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
If I had to receivers past their prime.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Yeah right. In many cases, if I had to pick one,
I'd go DeAndre Hopkins and just hope that he can
like box somebody out at the end zone. But that's
but they're all on the bench for this one and
I and you're right. If it came down to Noah
Gray or any of those guys. I think I'd be
perfectly happy going with Noah Gray. Let's use that as
an opportunity to talk about Xavior Worthy. This is the
(27:25):
one chief receiver you could actually start. Worthy is an
interesting guy because he's got the four to two speed
MATT so he's super super fast, and we want to
think that that speed will unlock deep downfield touchdowns. But
it doesn't. It hasn't been. He's not getting receptions, he's
not getting anything downfield. Since week eleven, they totally changed
(27:50):
the route tree for Worthy and it's all short stuff.
Since week eleven, Worthy he's got thirty nine receptions thirty
six of the thirty nine or from nine yards or less.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
So he's a short, dink and dunk receiver that they
want to try to set loose with the speed.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Huh, that is it? Get this? Since week thirteen, Xavier
Worthies average distance of target is four yards, that's his
average catch is four yards. That's it. And Buffalo allows
the fourth shortest air yards per target, just six point
(28:31):
nine yards. So for Worthy it's all short stuff, bubble screens, slants,
stuff like that that they're trying to turn They're hoping
he'll break into long, long games, but he usually doesn't.
I've just got the C grade on Xavier Worthy. Also
speaking of the passing game, Samaj p rid could be
a sneaky play now.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
I heard you talking about your love of Samaj p
Ryan earlier today.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Yes, I liked p Rid in last week did not
come through, But this isn't even more a hopeful uh moment.
The Bills allowed the most running back receptions, the most
running back receiving yards, and the second most running back
receiving touchdowns. Samajp RAN's betting line is over under eight
and a half yards receiving. I like him here. He's
(29:17):
the designated receiving back for the Bills. I don't know
what the designation actually is. We say designated a lot,
but there is no actual designation.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Well, churches, Isaiah Pachecko dead.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
I guess he's dead. I was wrong. I don't have
my Phonsie sounder on this. I had assumed they were
saving him up for a big playoff push like last year,
where they powered through the playoffs largely on the legs
of Isaiah Pachecko. Nope, that isn't apparently not gonna be
(29:52):
the case.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
He must not be healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Kareem Hunt is getting more usage than Pachecko, although it's
not very reliable usage and he's not running very well.
But Hunt has scored in three straight games, not counting
the Week eighteen game which they rest, and he's basically
paced Pacheco out in short down a distance workload, which
is shocking to me. Pachecko was always really good and
short down and distance stuff. Buffalo's run defense much improved lately,
(30:18):
but they've also played some really bad run defense run
offenses in recent weeks, like Denver and New England and
the Jets. But still I can get you to a
C grade on Kareem Hunt, I can't on Pachecko. Pachecko's
it's just a loss here. Just nine six and five
rushing attempts the last three weeks for Isaiah Pachecko. It's
all going the wrong way right now. That leaves us
(30:40):
with Patrick Mahomes B grade. I've got an A grade
on on Travis Kelce and then just like C grades
on a couple of receiving options. That's there's just not
a lot of great matchups I like for his receivers. Now,
Mahomes did get three touchdowns in the Week eleven matchup,
and the Bill secondary has had some lapses. Andy Reid
(31:03):
always likes to attack the slot. Every receiver runs from
the slot in his offense, and he does like to
pound the slot. And the Bills have got their slot
cornerback is the worst of their three starting cornerbacks, Taron
Johnson not county Week eighteen. Without their starters, the Bills
have allowed multiple passing touchdowns and eight to the last ten.
I think Patrick Mahomes is in the two touchdown range
(31:24):
and that feels like a B grade. Who do you winning?
Who do you have winning that game?
Speaker 3 (31:30):
I think the Chiefs win that one too. I did
see a nice stat from PFF Mahomes eighth highest graded
quarterback against two high coverage looks and the Bills defense
runs the fourth most too high coverage.
Speaker 1 (31:45):
In the NFL. All right, that's another angle for Patrick Mahomes.
Is he known for playing well in the playoffs? Does
he have a track record for playing well in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
I think he's been in an AFC championship game or two.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Yeah, I think he has. I think he has. I
want only I have. I don't have any any quibble
with Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs. Other than the fact
that the commercials are incessant. I Andy Reid and Patrick
Mahomes are on my TV every game that I watch constantly.
It's my only quibble.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
You don't like fumble Ruskie do.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
I had to go there? Yeah? Sorry, But I'm rooting
for the Bills because the you know, the fan base,
they've been you know, they've been languishing forever. I would
like to see a I'd like to see a new
team get in. I'd like to see just you know,
give some other teams, you know, reasons to think that
they can go to the super Bowl. And I hate
that Josh Allen keeps getting sort of this loser tag
(32:45):
like he can't he's not good enough to get his
teams over the hump. I'd like to see him do
that in the way that Yeah, I mean young Ones
did and yeah, and Manning did.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
I think if Josh Allen is to get there, it's
because of him, because they don't really have the weapons
around him, like Stefan Diggs and some of the other
weapons that they've had in the past that are surrounding him.
And I don't particularly think that the Bills coaching staff
is absolutely outstanding and just knocking the socks off everybody.
So that's where I think Kansas City just has all
(33:17):
of the the advantages here. I think they have a
better defense. I think their coaching staff knows what they're doing,
and I think Mahomes is ready for the moment. And
if Josh Allen does it, it's going to be because
Josh Allen is playing on the planet.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
Yeah, and he might be though. I mean this year
he's been a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes absolutely, yeah,
And I want to think that he is going to
not sing. He doesn't have to single handedly go win
this game, but he's gonna have a huge part in it. Yeah,
if only, if only for the narrative, and I think
it'd be great for Josh. And how about this for
Bill's fans, They've raised one hundred thousand dollars from Mark
(33:55):
Andrews charity. Would Eagle fans have ever done this?
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Matt No Bills fans notoriously awesome fans, even though they're
throwing themselves through tables.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
They they've they've always been, uh you know the ones
that have been there, like when the Damar Hamlin thing
came down.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
No, one was pounding the table harder for them than
those Bills fans, just making sure that everything was going right.
I seem to remember a punter having an issue a
few years back where the Bills fans were all over
that too.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
They're they're great, didn't they a few years ago? Didn't
Joe Burrow like beat an opponent for them that got
the Bills into the playoffs and then they pounded a
bunch of money at Joe Burrow's charity?
Speaker 2 (34:42):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (34:42):
Is that?
Speaker 1 (34:43):
I think that happened as well, like two three years ago. Listeners,
listeners will correct me on that.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
I believe all right, I've got commanders and chiefs, and
it sounds like you have Bills and Eagles.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Yeah, I've got Bill's Eagles, so we're we can't both
be right here.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
No, it'll be an interesting pod next week when we
return to talk about it.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Yeah, we'll look forward to that for sure. Thanks for listening, everybody.
Fantasy Football Weekly will be back next week as well.
Thank you Matt for stepping up despite a nasty case
of whooping cough. Sure we'll go with it, ye whooping cough. Yes,
with a little chlamydia sprinkled in God.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
I hope not.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
I have a lot of explaining to do. We'll talk
to you, We'll talk to you next week. Everybody. Fantasy
Football Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts
from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever
you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
here's your host, Paul Chargion.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchi and
my co host today, the ailing Matt Harrison.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, my knee pit is really Oh that's a throwback
right there.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Oh yeah, that's your showing your age if you get
back to the knee pit. We haven't had a knee
pit reference on this show. And what do you think,
like ten years.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
It's been a while, but I heard you and uh,
Paul Allen and Chad Greenway talking about Dennis Pitta today
and it brought me all back to the Todd heat
Memorial injury report, all that good times back then.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
The Todd Heap Memorial injury Report. That's how we started
those episodes of Fantasy Football Weekly, back in the day
when it was really hard to get injury information. So
you're like, the first thing we got to get out
of the way is who's healthy and who's not. Now,
that's just not times have changed and.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
We figured out how to work it into the matchups,
and yeah, take less time.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
I think that I think it is better this way
that we've that we've done it. But we missed Todd Heap.
I was always my intention to get Todd Heap on
the show. But and we could probably get him now
because what's Todd Heap doing? He'd probably enjoy the opportunity
to come on the show, But well, you know what
are we going to do with him now?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
He's probably in a hospital somewhere.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Let's hope he's not dead somewhere with all the things
that have gone wrong for him. And I hope he'd
take it with a sense of humor to know that
there was a show out there that named their injury
report after Todd Heap.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Who knows, he might be really angry about it.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
Could be, it could be. We're gonna have a ton
of fun today, Matt. We're gonna break down the AFC
and NFC championship games fantasy football weekly style with letter
grades and all the players and see how see who
we like, who we don't like, what kind of sleepers
we can unveil a lot of ways you can put
this to good use DFS betting. In some cases, you
(02:23):
may sell fantasy leagues playoff fantasy leagues, so you can
change rosters. I'm in one of those. We've got one
of them ageeteen leagues dot Com, so there's a lot
of different ways you could skin this cat. I want
to start with the Eagles Commander's game. That's our first
game on Sunday. And I think, if I'm correct about
the scheduling on this, I haven't. I haven't looked at
it a while, Matt. I think we're going mid afternoon
(02:44):
for the first game and then prime time for the
second game.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
Correct, Yeah, two pm Central time, so three pm Eastern
is the first game.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Got you? Got you? And that first game is Commander's Eagles.
That is your game, Matt. Let's well, let's take it
away and maybe you can start where if you want.
But I mean, the a story here for sure on
the Commander's side is Jade and Daniels.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Why wouldn't we start with him? I mean, he's the
top scoring fantasy player in the Fantasy in the playoffs,
so far, better than Lamar and Josh Allen and Stroud
and Saquon and Derrick Henry, all those guys had two
games as well. He's seen this Eagles defense twice before,
and Eagles defense that has faced the thirtieth best strength
of schedule this year, so maybe not.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
The toughest matchups.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
So when they met in Week sixteen, Daniels threw for
two hundred and fifty eight yards and five touchdowns, and
then he added eighty one yards on the ground on
nine carries, and then last week Stafford was Yeah, last
week Stafford was able to throw for three twenty four
and two in snowy conditions. I don't know if I
(03:53):
trust this Eagles defense to be this like stone cold
lock that everybody seems to think it is, and it doesn't.
Seemed like the moment is too big for Jade and Daniels.
So I've got an A grade on him, and I
think he's my favorite quarterback of the four going this
weekend in terms of.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Just like fantasy point potential. Yeah, I could.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
I think the Eagle ranking all of them, he would
be my number one.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
The Eagles secondary has been great, legitimately great. I could
see I could see this being an all or nothing
scenario for Jadon Daniels, But the five touchdowns last game
is pretty telling you know. What we know is it
won't be like the moment's too big for Jaden.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Dan definitely, because that kid is I think, definitely I
shoot for the moon kind of guy. And his favorite
target is Terry mclaur and Terry, who's been the top
scoring wide receiver in the in the playoffs so far
for Fantasy only, Nico Collins has more receptions than Terry
in the playoffs, and I have a feeling that McLaurin
will get one more reception to at least tie Nico
(04:56):
Collins this week. McLaurin scored in seven of his last
eight games, including the Week sixteen matchup against the Eagles,
where he managed five catches sixty yards in a score.
But the problem is in Week eleven, McLaurin was almost
blanked by the Eagles one catch, ten yards yep, and
Philly is number three in the league and fewest yards
(05:16):
allowed to perimeter receivers this season. I've got a be
on McLaurin, but since it's an offseason show, I can
give him a B minus.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
I think, ah, okay, look, you stepped up, you're sick,
you're doing the show. Anyway, We're gonna give you this minus.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
All right, I think the sleeper here is Diami Brown,
who is actually the Darius Slay slayer, and he's let
lock go against Darius Slay in this one. According to
Pro Football Focus, in thirty career receiving snaps against Darius Slay,
Diami Brown is averaging three point seven yards per route run.
(05:58):
It's pretty significant for that snap total. Yeah, and Brown
is sneakily tied with McLaurin in receptions during the playoffs
with eleven and has more yards than Terry.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
So.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
By the way, Danny Brown is only forty four on DraftKings,
and he's kind of a nice contrarian play. I built
some internal lineups over at fanball dot Com with with
my coworkers there. I switched out McLaurin for Diami Brown
and just took the cash discount. I'll throw a C
grade on him, but it's probably closer to like a
(06:32):
C plus grade for Diami Brown.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
You're really pushing the envelope, now, Yeah, See that was
what I always fear. You do it one time and
then the flood gets open.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Yeah, see that's what happens.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
That's well. Now, it's the problem is, you guys can't
just take the win. You have to expand it.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
I have regrets, all right, all right, Uh, the last
receiver you might want to start as Zach Ertz. He's
were on a team high three hundred and eighteen routes
from the slot this season and thirty five percent of
the Eagles receptions allowed this season. We're out of the slot. Okay,
so you're looking at roughly one third of your target
(07:14):
totals maybe going to zach Ertz in this game. We
don't forget, by the way, Yes, absolutely a big revenge
game in Philly. Scored in the first game, not in
the second, so there's some opportunity for Ertz to cross
the goal line in that revenge game. I like Ertz.
I think he's my second favorite tight end. Play this weekend.
He gets a B grade for me. And then I
(07:37):
think the Brian Robinson Austin Eckler thing. This is super interesting.
Robinson did absolutely nothing in the wild card round versus Tampa,
but he was pretty steady last week in the Detroit game,
fifteen carries, seventy seven yards, two touchdowns, which was fantastic. Yeah,
five point one yards per carry. He was not targeted
(07:58):
at all last week though, and I think that's because
Austin Eckler's finally all the way healthy.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
Yeah, for sure, Eckler running Mike, He's healthy. He looks good.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Yeah. He caught four of his eleven or four of
his are sorry, he caught all four of his targets
for forty one yards. That's an average of ten point
three yards per catch, which is down from his season
average of ten point five yards to catch, by the.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Way, Yes, but that's actually by the way. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
He leads running backs in the league in yards after
catch per reception this year with eleven point nine.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
He's basically receiving the ball behind the line of scrimmage
and scampering out for about twelve yards every time. It
is only meeting with the Eagles. This season, Eckler had
eight catches and eighty nine receiving yards. So I think
that there's a possibility, and this is my boldest take
of the weekend, Eckler might see more targets this weekend
(08:56):
out of any player in both games.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Wow. That's probably betable somehow somewhere, And you know, I
bet the reception side is definitely betable, and I bet
it definitely would I bet his odds enormous.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
I'll give Eckler a B grade here. Robinson gets a
bench grade for me.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Though.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
The Eagles have only allowed five running back rushing touchdowns
on the season, so things will probably dry up and
it will be more like he did against Tampa, which
was not very good in the run game. Switch over
to the Eagle side. Saquon Barkley is A. He's an
A grade. He's the fantasy Fonsie. He's the fantasy Ardvark.
(09:36):
He's the building block of anything you do in playoff Fantasy.
You can't even fade him, no, like of the four
teams left, he's the only running back that should be
in one hundred percent of DFS lineups like he should
do like you fade him, you're just playing with fire.
In two games against Washington, the first one twenty eight
(09:56):
touches one hundred and ninety eight yards and two scores,
second one twenty nine touches one hundred and fifty yards
and two scores. And Washington faced Detroit last week and
Jamior Gibbs and Gibbs could have done whatever he wanted
against the Commanders, and yeah, for so for reasons unknown,
after averaging seven and a half yards per carry. Gibbs
(10:18):
only had fourteen carries. He got one hundred and five
yards and two scores. He added six catches for seventy yards.
He could have done whatever he wanted and Detroit went
away from him. Yeah, in situations, it's crazy. The Commander's
defense ranked dead last in the league in average rushing
yards before contact to running backs.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Wow, So there's gonna be some room to work with.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
There's room to work with, and you're giving Saquon the ball.
Thirty touches is in play for Saquon, and if the
Eagles lose, it will be because they went away from
Saquon in the run.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
It's uh, you know, and you may have heard this
and listeners may already know it highest over under in
the history of Vegas for rushing yards on a players
over under. Depending on where you're looking, it's between one
hundred and twenty six and one hundred and thirty yards.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Wow. For Barkley, I think it's in play.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
It is in play, and I you know, it's funny.
You can make a case that you should ladder it
up from there because he obliterates this number from on
a pretty regular basis. So there's there's still a scenario
where not only does he go over the say one
hundred and thirty yards, but he goes way over it
and nobody nobody be shocked.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So the key to the rest of this game, I
think is Jalen Hurts. It changes everything you do in
fantasy and betting depending on which Hurts is out there. Now.
The last time he faced the Commanders, he got that
concussion that knocked him out of the game and knocked
the Eagles out of number one seed contention. He has
managed one hundred and thirty one and one and twenty
(11:59):
eight pass and.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
It's two games, right, I mean, everybody assumes that Hurts
is hurt and more more than they're letting on because
he doesn't look like himself and just the productivity is
not there.
Speaker 3 (12:13):
Well, get this. Over the season, he's averaging only three
point nine passing yards per dropback, and that's the lowest
total of any quarterback to make the conference championship since
Pro Football Focus started doing stats in two thousand and six.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Wow, holy cow, look at that.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
So not a prolific passer here, and Hurts Week eleven
win against Washington, he managed two or twenty one passing yards,
did not throw a passing touchdown in that game, So
I'm not feeling super confident in the Philly passing game overall.
Here why you can still get some Hurts exposure going.
He ran for thirty nine thirty nine yards in a
score in the week eleven meeting, and he's ran thirteen
(12:52):
times in the two playoff games for one hundred and
six yards in a score. So the Eagles are throwing
caution to the wind if he's if he's hurt about
concussions or anything like that, they're not showing it. They're
making them run still.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
And and you know what, why not? I mean, you know,
at any loss is your last loss, you may as
well run him, I think, Matt.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
Yeah, So I've got a C grade on Hurts. He's
my least favorite quarterback of the four playing this weekend.
But all it takes is a goal line push push
or two and he's going to return value for you.
Uh got aj Brown? He has three receptions over two
playoff games, Yes, which is which is trailing Xavier Hutchinson,
Anthony Miller, and DeMarcus Robinson in that department. He's tied
(13:36):
with Olamide Zechias and Jalen Naylor in receptions in the playoffs. Oh,
by the way, Jalen Naylor has been out.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Of the playoffs, so that's right.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
And also aj Brown reading fine leatherbound books on the sideline,
so we know he's talented. But we also need to
realize that when the Eagles went on their crazy win streak,
it's kind of when his targets dropped and he was
the squeaky wheel for a little bit there and saw
some action again for two games, but then it kind
of went back to what it was before the game
(14:08):
he was targeted the most this year was Week sixteen
against Washington, where he saw fifteen targets in the game
that Jalen Hurts got knocked out and the team lost
that game, by the way, so he still has more
targets than any other Eagles wide receiver in the playoffs,
tied with Dallas Goddard at ten so far in the
last two games. Problem is, the last seven games of
(14:30):
the regular season, the Commanders only allowed seven touchdown passes total,
and Goff only managed one last week in catchup mode
and Baker had two. So we're looking at maybe one
touchdown pass in the game for Hurts. I think that
would be the safe bet.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
I think that is the safe bet.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
The odds are that it's Brown getting that, and the
sportsbooks agree. Of all the receivers for the Eagles, he's
plus one fifty five for at any time touchdown. Brown
ranks second in Pro Football Focused grades when facing man coverage,
and Washington runs the eighth most man coverage in the league.
So it's like a Sea dart on Brown. But I
(15:11):
don't feel great about it right now. Devanta Smith, he
caught all of his eight playoff targets for seventy six yards,
but he's been one of the strangest players to forecast
since Halloween. Since Week ten, he's had six games under
sixty yards and he's scored four times. But he's only
had two games with double digit PPR points in that span. Yeah,
(15:31):
which is crazy. He's just too volatile. I'm gonna leave
DeVonta Smith on the bench, and then Dallas Goddard is
the last guy.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
I like him here. I'll be interested to hear what
you think.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I got a C grade on Goddard comes in with
a questionable tag, but he's gonna definitely play in this one.
Tied for the target lead for the Eagles in the
playoffs with ten he has scored. He sees a lot
of targets when the opposing defense is blitzing. Goddard ranks
eighth in the league amongst touchdowns in yards sorry amongst
(16:03):
tight ends in yards per route run when facing the blitz,
and Washington Blitz is at the sixth highest rate in
the NFL. So it looks like there could be quite
a few targets going his way. In the week eleven meeting,
Goddard caught all five of his targets for sixty one yards. Yeah,
it seems about where he's gonna be. I don't know
if he can get much more than that, though, because
(16:24):
Hurtz just doesn't throw the ball well.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I still think if he's going to get into that
five catch sixty yard range and maybe a forty chance
of a touchdown, I think that's a B grade for
a tight end.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Okay, can I talk into it. He's still like zach
Ertz more than Goddart. But I think I got got
Art as my third ranked tight end this weekend, all right,
So that's all I got On the Eagles and Commanders.
My prediction is I think the Commanders pull this off.
Speaker 1 (16:54):
You're not alone, the betting public is hitting the Commander's
money line pretty hard. And I think the Eagles just don't.
The Eagles look like they're good at a lot of things.
They just don't look dominating like you want them to.
And the Commanders have overcome a lot to get here,
and Jaden Daniels just has got the vibe of a
(17:15):
winner that honestly, Jalen Hurts doesn't seem to have, even
though he's won tons of games.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Well, and if you think about the Eagles right now
and all season, really, they've just there's just been doubts
about the whole team all year. Nick sirianni Is, I
mean they're talking about if he would have lost to
the Rams last week, he would have been fired. Maybe
if he loses to the Commanders this week, he's fired.
It's possible. Yeah, And it seems like that locker room's
(17:41):
kind of been kind of in dismay right now, and
it just seems like the Commanders are the team of destiny. Also,
their colors are in the Super Bowl logo, so well then, yeah,
I like that we got that going and it works
every year.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
If I got to just pick the winner, it would
be I'm still on Philadelphia because of the defensive abilities
they've got so much better than what the commanders have
seen so far. But you know, we'll see and they,
you know they they again. Five touchdowns by Jaden in
the earlier matchups suggest that maybe the Eagles defense is
and what we think they are. Let's take a quick
(18:17):
break when we come back. Buffalo at Kansas City. Stay tuned,
Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchie and Matt Harrison
with you. You'll be back next week if you're alive, Matt,
I mean, if you.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Know, yeah, I'll be next week. We'll talk Super Bowl games,
including my prop bet game, which will be live for
sale somewhere online next week.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Mysteriously ways to make an already great Super Bowl even
better by adding by gamifying your Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
We love it absolutely.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Buffalo in Kansas City is the evening game on Sunday Night.
Of course, these teams have met regularly in the postseason,
and they play each other in the regular season pretty often.
Buffalo's won four straight regular season matches matchups between these teams,
three of which were in Kansas City, so they have
been able to win in Kansas City before, but they've
(19:16):
lost three prost season meetings in the Allen Mahomes era,
including that crazy twenty twenty two playoff game, which is
one of the greatest games of all time.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
I think everybody's hoping for a repeat of that game.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Maybe different outcome. Yes, yeah, you would really think that
you could hold a lead when you're kicking off with
thirteen seconds left by.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Not the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Not the Bills. Not two years ago. When these teams
met a week eleven, Buffalo won thirty to twenty one.
Buffalo led it half and then never gave up the lead,
but it was really closer than that nine point final
score would suggest it was. The outcome is very much
in doubt through most of the game. Current line Kansas City,
he favored by one and a half. The weather is
not gonna be much of a factor. It'll be chilly,
(20:04):
but not cold, thirty eight degrees, no precipitation. So let's uh.
I'm gonna start with my favorite Bills player, Khalil Shakir.
I loved him in the preseason. He's had a nice season,
targeted a career high twelve times in the earlier meeting.
(20:25):
The week eleven meeting. Between these twelve times. Shakir usually
catches pretty much everything you throw to him, although here
he turned those twelve passes only into eight receptions in
the earlier matchup. Now, importantly, he runs from the slot.
He's gonna face off against slot cornerback Chamari Connor. He
allows an eighty five percent catch rate on passes in
(20:47):
his coverage. That is the worst completion percentage of any
cornerback in the league. I love this matchup for Khalil Shakir.
The only thing, the only reason I'm giving Khalil Shakir
a B grade instead of an A grade is they
don't target him in the end zone and he rarely scores.
He has just four touchdowns on the season despite eighty
(21:09):
eight receptions. He's my favorite of the Bills receivers. And
then after that, I don't think there's a lot to
do with Bills receivers. So you've got Shakir and then
probably like one of the other receivers will have a
good game. But it's Kean Coleman, Amari Cooper, mac Hollins,
even Curtis Samuel last week, they all ran between ten
(21:32):
and fourteen routes. That's just not enough. You know, they're
shuffling these guys in and out. I mean, Shakir's on
the field a lot. The other four are just rotating
in and route and ten to fourteen routes is not
enough to make any of them fantasy bankable. Whoever does
run on the outside, which will primarily be Cooper and
Coleman and Hollins two, I guess they will get a
(21:54):
big dose of Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson, who are
both above average guys. Mcduffy held Nico Collins in check,
and he's way better than all of those guys. So
we've got bench grades on all the other receivers. What
about Dalton Kincaid, you might be asking, Matt, what about
Dalton Kincaid? Charge, Oh, well, let me tell you about
(22:14):
Dalton Kincaid. You know, I think he's a C grade
viable starter because the Chiefs have struggled against tight ends
all year, allowing the second most receptions and the most
yards to tight ends. Frustratingly, though, Kinkaid and Knocks split
playing time basically right down the middle, with almost identical
average snaps and routes. Run Kincaid invisible for basically three weeks,
(22:40):
but he does average a more respectable four catches per
game throughout the rest of the year. So in a pinch,
it's only there's only four games. There's not many tight
ends to work with here. I guess you will throw
a C grade on Dalton Kincaid. So where does us
leave us with Josh, you may be wondering. Over Allen's
(23:03):
last seven meetings, Steve Spagnolo has been unable to stop
Allen's rushing, averaging fifty eight rushing yards and zero point
seven rushing touchdowns per game, and that includes four rushing
touchdowns in his most recent three games against Kansas City.
I love Josh Allen on the ground here. And if
you look at what some mobile quarterbacks have done to
(23:25):
Kansas City lately Week eighteen, Bo Nicks forty seven rushing yards.
Week seventeen, Russell Wilson fifty five rushing yards. So and
on the season, the Chiefs saw the fifth most quarterback
rushing yards. So I believe this is a really nice
running game for Josh Allen here through the air, I'm
less optimistic as usually heard. I've only got the B
(23:47):
grade on Khalil Shakir and a C grade on Dalton
Kinkaid and bench grades and everybody else. And he's thrown
exactly and only one touchdown in three straight games against
Kansas City, so I don't love him through the air here.
Kansas City's coming off an eight sack game, I believe, Yeah,
eight sack game of c. J. Stroud, which will not
happen again here. But still, you know, Josh Allen's mobility
(24:12):
will help make sure that. In fact, he's been sacked
zero and zero times in his last two games against
the Chiefs, so I think his offensive line will hold
up just fine here. I've still got the A grade
on Josh Allen because of the rushing.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
So no, do you think that people are downplaying how
good the Chiefs defense has been this year simply because
they're sick of the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Well, the attention is always going to be Patrick Mahomes, right,
But the reason that they won all the games they
won sixteen and one in the regular is their defense.
The defense was the was way I think way better.
Well in that way, was better than their offense was
throughout the course of the season, my opinion. Let's go
(24:53):
to Kansas City side. I've got one A grade for you,
Travis Kelcey, Matt. We got playoff Kelsey last week. Eight targets,
seven catches, one hundred and seventeen yards, and a touchdown,
looking nothing like the Travis Kelcey who struggled to put
up just, you know, really modest scoring through most of
the year. I think he scored in three games during
(25:16):
the regular season. Does that sound right, man?
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (25:19):
I think it was. So the Bills shut down Kelsey
in the week eleven meeting, but what happened was because
they were putting so much attention on Kelsey. Noah Gray
got two touchdowns in that game. And I think they'll
play Kelsey more straight up because now they've proved. Chiefs
proved they can go to Noah Gray if they need to.
(25:39):
So I think they play Kelsey straight up and good
titands generally have success against the Bills. Sam Laporter recently,
Hunter Henry recently, Tyler Conklin last week as they likely,
and Mark Andrews had good games. So I've still got
the eight ground and Kelsey. But man, as he looks slow, Matt,
he has lost a step for sure.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
I think that if you're in the kind of playoff
league where you set a lineup every week, and if
you're not near the front or your way behind. I
think the Noah Gray angle is super interesting here because
I think people will just be completely off of him
because he didn't do anything in the playoff game last week.
He's got that track record, and I think that they
trust him. I think that he's one of the two
(26:22):
or three most trustworthy receivers on Kansas City right now,
and I like him as a dart throw.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
So I love that you brought this up, and I'll
do use that as my transition. How could Noah Gray
be like the second most trustworthy receiver? Well, the wide
receivers for Kansas City last week, only Xavier Worthy caught
a pass. All the rest were zero receptions. Unbelievable. Hopkins,
(26:50):
Brown Smith, Schuster, Watson. They're all low volume, touchdown dependent
guys who give you virtually nothing if they don't score.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
If I had to receivers past their prime.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Yeah right. In many cases, if I had to pick one,
I'd go DeAndre Hopkins and just hope that he can
like box somebody out at the end zone. But that's
but they're all on the bench for this one and
I and you're right. If it came down to Noah
Gray or any of those guys. I think I'd be
perfectly happy going with Noah Gray. Let's use that as
an opportunity to talk about Xavior Worthy. This is the
(27:25):
one chief receiver you could actually start. Worthy is an
interesting guy because he's got the four to two speed
MATT so he's super super fast, and we want to
think that that speed will unlock deep downfield touchdowns. But
it doesn't. It hasn't been. He's not getting receptions, he's
not getting anything downfield. Since week eleven, they totally changed
(27:50):
the route tree for Worthy and it's all short stuff.
Since week eleven, Worthy he's got thirty nine receptions thirty
six of the thirty nine or from nine yards or less.
Speaker 3 (28:05):
So he's a short, dink and dunk receiver that they
want to try to set loose with the speed.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Huh, that is it? Get this? Since week thirteen, Xavier
Worthies average distance of target is four yards, that's his
average catch is four yards. That's it. And Buffalo allows
the fourth shortest air yards per target, just six point
(28:31):
nine yards. So for Worthy it's all short stuff, bubble screens, slants,
stuff like that that they're trying to turn They're hoping
he'll break into long, long games, but he usually doesn't.
I've just got the C grade on Xavier Worthy. Also
speaking of the passing game, Samaj p rid could be
a sneaky play now.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
I heard you talking about your love of Samaj p
Ryan earlier today.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Yes, I liked p Rid in last week did not
come through, But this isn't even more a hopeful uh moment.
The Bills allowed the most running back receptions, the most
running back receiving yards, and the second most running back
receiving touchdowns. Samajp RAN's betting line is over under eight
and a half yards receiving. I like him here. He's
(29:17):
the designated receiving back for the Bills. I don't know
what the designation actually is. We say designated a lot,
but there is no actual designation.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
Well, churches, Isaiah Pachecko dead.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
I guess he's dead. I was wrong. I don't have
my Phonsie sounder on this. I had assumed they were
saving him up for a big playoff push like last year,
where they powered through the playoffs largely on the legs
of Isaiah Pachecko. Nope, that isn't apparently not gonna be
(29:52):
the case.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
He must not be healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Kareem Hunt is getting more usage than Pachecko, although it's
not very reliable usage and he's not running very well.
But Hunt has scored in three straight games, not counting
the Week eighteen game which they rest, and he's basically
paced Pacheco out in short down a distance workload, which
is shocking to me. Pachecko was always really good and
short down and distance stuff. Buffalo's run defense much improved lately,
(30:18):
but they've also played some really bad run defense run
offenses in recent weeks, like Denver and New England and
the Jets. But still I can get you to a
C grade on Kareem Hunt, I can't on Pachecko. Pachecko's
it's just a loss here. Just nine six and five
rushing attempts the last three weeks for Isaiah Pachecko. It's
all going the wrong way right now. That leaves us
(30:40):
with Patrick Mahomes B grade. I've got an A grade
on on Travis Kelce and then just like C grades
on a couple of receiving options. That's there's just not
a lot of great matchups I like for his receivers. Now,
Mahomes did get three touchdowns in the Week eleven matchup,
and the Bill secondary has had some lapses. Andy Reid
(31:03):
always likes to attack the slot. Every receiver runs from
the slot in his offense, and he does like to
pound the slot. And the Bills have got their slot
cornerback is the worst of their three starting cornerbacks, Taron
Johnson not county Week eighteen. Without their starters, the Bills
have allowed multiple passing touchdowns and eight to the last ten.
I think Patrick Mahomes is in the two touchdown range
(31:24):
and that feels like a B grade. Who do you winning?
Who do you have winning that game?
Speaker 3 (31:30):
I think the Chiefs win that one too. I did
see a nice stat from PFF Mahomes eighth highest graded
quarterback against two high coverage looks and the Bills defense
runs the fourth most too high coverage.
Speaker 1 (31:45):
In the NFL. All right, that's another angle for Patrick Mahomes.
Is he known for playing well in the playoffs? Does
he have a track record for playing well in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
I think he's been in an AFC championship game or two.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Yeah, I think he has. I think he has. I
want only I have. I don't have any any quibble
with Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs. Other than the fact
that the commercials are incessant. I Andy Reid and Patrick
Mahomes are on my TV every game that I watch constantly.
It's my only quibble.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
You don't like fumble Ruskie do.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
I had to go there? Yeah? Sorry, But I'm rooting
for the Bills because the you know, the fan base,
they've been you know, they've been languishing forever. I would
like to see a I'd like to see a new
team get in. I'd like to see just you know,
give some other teams, you know, reasons to think that
they can go to the super Bowl. And I hate
that Josh Allen keeps getting sort of this loser tag
(32:45):
like he can't he's not good enough to get his
teams over the hump. I'd like to see him do
that in the way that Yeah, I mean young Ones
did and yeah, and Manning did.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
I think if Josh Allen is to get there, it's
because of him, because they don't really have the weapons
around him, like Stefan Diggs and some of the other
weapons that they've had in the past that are surrounding him.
And I don't particularly think that the Bills coaching staff
is absolutely outstanding and just knocking the socks off everybody.
So that's where I think Kansas City just has all
(33:17):
of the the advantages here. I think they have a
better defense. I think their coaching staff knows what they're doing,
and I think Mahomes is ready for the moment. And
if Josh Allen does it, it's going to be because
Josh Allen is playing on the planet.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
Yeah, and he might be though. I mean this year
he's been a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes absolutely, yeah,
And I want to think that he is going to
not sing. He doesn't have to single handedly go win
this game, but he's gonna have a huge part in it. Yeah,
if only, if only for the narrative, and I think
it'd be great for Josh. And how about this for
Bill's fans, They've raised one hundred thousand dollars from Mark
(33:55):
Andrews charity. Would Eagle fans have ever done this?
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Matt No Bills fans notoriously awesome fans, even though they're
throwing themselves through tables.
Speaker 1 (34:07):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
They they've they've always been, uh you know the ones
that have been there, like when the Damar Hamlin thing
came down.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
No, one was pounding the table harder for them than
those Bills fans, just making sure that everything was going right.
I seem to remember a punter having an issue a
few years back where the Bills fans were all over
that too.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
They're they're great, didn't they a few years ago? Didn't
Joe Burrow like beat an opponent for them that got
the Bills into the playoffs and then they pounded a
bunch of money at Joe Burrow's charity?
Speaker 2 (34:42):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (34:42):
Is that?
Speaker 1 (34:43):
I think that happened as well, like two three years ago. Listeners,
listeners will correct me on that.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
I believe all right, I've got commanders and chiefs, and
it sounds like you have Bills and Eagles.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Yeah, I've got Bill's Eagles, so we're we can't both
be right here.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
No, it'll be an interesting pod next week when we
return to talk about it.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Yeah, we'll look forward to that for sure. Thanks for listening, everybody.
Fantasy Football Weekly will be back next week as well.
Thank you Matt for stepping up despite a nasty case
of whooping cough. Sure we'll go with it, ye whooping cough. Yes,
with a little chlamydia sprinkled in God.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
I hope not.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
I have a lot of explaining to do. We'll talk
to you, We'll talk to you next week. Everybody. Fantasy
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