February 8, 2024 • 52 mins
Chuck Powell and Anders Hirst break down the move for Gregory Santos, what the Mariners gave up to get him and if he can be a big piece at the back end of the bullpen. Fangraphs also came out with their playoffs and world series odds, and the Mariners are surprisingly high on both lists. Can Julio hit another level in 2024?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
Stove. What a kind of nameis that. It's a great name.
Yeah, that's what it is.That's a great name. And I will
you will mind your p's and q's. Lady, Hey, it's Chuck and
it is Anders with you here foranother episode of Stove. If you depend
upon the music that we play,apologies, sorry, we're not playing music
(00:22):
anymore. Yeah, Nelly wants toomuch money. So it's just Anders and
I coming at you with another Marinersoff season episode of our Stove podcast and
always something juicy to break down andno exception today. Yeah, and you
know, we were kind of justchatting as we were walking into the studio
here today. This has kind ofbeen a weird off season for the Mariners.
(00:45):
Not really like amazing, not likeawful either, has been just kind
of a mixed bag of everything.So and that's no different with what's happened
over the weekend than Gregory Santos tradefrom the Chicago White Sox. Not exactly
who we were asking for from theWhite Sox, but I nonetheless I still
think it's a good move and theMariners upgraded another part of their team.
(01:07):
Yeah, a bit down the list. Just to your first point though,
I don't know if we've ever seenan off season like this. And we
had Justin Hollander on about I don'tknow a week ago on our radio show
and I asked him about time offand he goes, honestly, goes,
we've been NonStop since the season ended. And I kind of believe him.
(01:30):
You know, they're the only they'velike there have been like fifteen trades this
off season in an all of MajorLeague Baseball, and they've made like six
of them. Yeah, I mean, it's crazy. And clearly ownership Anders
said you can't spend as much aswe said that you were going to be
able to spend in twenty twenty four, and they really wanted to restructure the
(01:53):
way they went arout their offense.Yes, and so for them to have
made it many creative move money,get young, get prospects, get impact
bats. You know, the waythat they moved the pieces on the game
board around, I'm not sure I'veever seen it done before. And I
(02:15):
mean, we had the conversation acouple of weeks ago about stack what they
gave up versus what they brought in, and I took what they gave up
was the better group, more talentedyes, you know, but that was
and that was right after the Polancotrade. And yet I think they have
fewer holes offensively, and I thinkthere's better balance offensively. There were too
(02:40):
many strikeout guys in the lineup,no matter how talented tail is kel nic
ridiculous talent, and I still amso worried about what he's gonna do next.
But if nothing else, you know, whether you give it a whatever
letter grade you give the Mariners thisoffseason, number one, it's gotten the
(03:02):
attention of a lot of baseball peopleout there. They seem to really like
what they've done. And if nothingelse, even if you don't like it,
if you're on the other side,and I'm somewhere in the middle,
by the way, yeah i'm too. Very creative, Yeah, very creative.
Job of we can't add payroll,but we do have to fix and
(03:23):
restructure the entirety of our offensive gameplan around Julio, right, And what
they came up with was innovative,if nothing else, Yeah, And I
think the best way for me todescribe, you know, what the Mariners
have done so far, at leastthis saseason, it looks like they're probably
winding down a little bit usually whenyou get there to be yeah, usually
(03:44):
when you get to the adding reliever'spiece, it's like, Okay, this
is just the extra little icing onthe cake sort of thing. Not that
Gregory Santos is a nothing. He'sa big piece that we're going to talk
about here in a second. ButI think the best way to describe it
is like, kind of what wedid with the indgoing and out goings is
the actual talent level. I don'tthink has actually raised that much, if
at all, But I think theway they go about and the kind of
(04:09):
the best way to describe it isif you were a football team you're building,
you're getting players that actually fit yourscheme, right, and this is
the scheme quote unquote. The Marinersare trying to do less strikeouts. You
know, it pairs better with elitepitching, which they have. You're just
trying to put the ball in playand put pressure on the other pitching staffs
to keep up with the elite pitchingstaff that is the Mariners. So I
(04:32):
think that is going to you know, pair well, and the way they
go about winning their baseball games,it's going to match a little bit better
this year than it did last year. Where you know, we went through
so many big stretches of cold bats, and I don't think that'll happen as
much this year. You're more balanced, Yeah, you're deeper and frankly,
I mean Gino was in third alot. Yeah, sure you're not a
(04:55):
third place later. No, Imean maybe Jore Polanco on a great offense,
isn't the third place hitter either,but he's a better hitter than Gino
Swarez. Yeah. And you can'tthink about this team as Gino for Eureus
and Rojas. You have to thinkabout this as Gino for Garver because that's
or Polanco, because that's really thedecision. It's we're we owe him eleven
(05:19):
and a half twelve million dollars andwe like his defense, But is there
a better way to spend that elevenand a half twelve million dollars? Well,
Garver's making twelve, Polonko's making eleven. So whichever one you want to
put right into that equation. Allright. If you want to compare Ureus
and Rojas to Suarez his defense,yes, and say that's a down grade,
(05:41):
well, there's no getting around now. They're going to play third base
or not. You either can defendthird base or not, and that is
a downgrade defensively, but from anoffensive standpoint. To trade swore as for
Garver, a healthy Garver, wouldyou take if he was just if you
had the same contract he has now, would you have taken thisrez for Mitch
Garver? Trade just one for one? Well, I'm still worried about the
(06:06):
health. The health, yeah,so I can't just leap at that,
But I know that a healthy Garveris a better middle of the order hitter
than a healthy Genu. And Isay the same thing when it comes to
ty France too. On the negativeside, a you know, seven to
fifty ops at third base is differentthan a seven to fifty ops at DH,
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And it's different than a seven tofifty ops at first base, and
it's different than a seven to fiftyops at second base. Every position,
and maybe you and I disagree alittle bit on this. I think every
position, you know, whether it'show you build your team around it or
whatever, and if you have goodhitters overall that it shouldn't matter that much.
But I still think that you canget more value from having good hitters
(06:50):
in a DH spot and then havinggood defenders in a third base and in
a shortstop or a short field andall that kind of stuff. But yeah,
I mean it's just kind of howyou piece the pie together a little
bit, I guess. Yeah,Polonko versus Sores, Yeah, Polonko for
sure, definitely I agree with that. So then Garver versus Tao. One's
(07:12):
more talented, yep, one stayson the field more. But I'm not
sure that if I got a healthyGarver that I wouldn't want the guy that
puts the ball in play more often, draws more walks, h and yeah,
Tao's got the potential at thirty tothirty five homers, where Garver probably
maxes out at twenty five. Ithink he has the thirty bomb in him
(07:33):
if he's healthy all season. Ijust think he can hit thirty home runs.
Yes, well, then that's that'san upgrade. Yeah, So that's
kind of the way that you haveto compare. I mean, make no
mistake about it, there are someholes still in this team, but this
is not what you put out thereon opening Day. Doesn't have to be
what you live with exactly. Thereare opportunities, and it's probably the biggest
(07:57):
source of frustration of last season.Is that. I know it is.
It's Jerry told us in spring trainingwe're a bat short, and he never
addressed it. And I asked JustinHollander about that very thing, and he
admitted that we never addressed it andit was the biggest mistake that we made
last year. So so yeah,it's it's restructured, it's rebuilt. But
(08:18):
I do think it is more balanced, It is deeper. The team is
deeper. Yeah, the major leagueroster is deeper. Yeah. The question
with this team, they're going tostrike out less. The question with this
team is can it stay healthy?Yeah, and that is I guess another
volatile part of the sport is hishealth, along with you know, striking
out and being having cold bats.But I still think I don't know about
(08:41):
what your thoughts are on this.I feel much better about the quote unquote
holes of this team than I didabout the holes of the last year's team.
Going into the year, I thinka lot of people thought Wong was
an upgrade. I was still worriedabout that. Did not think he'd be
as bad as he was. Hetalked about that as many times as we
can, but the fact that hewasn't even starting on opening Day, he
tells you, I think everything youneed to know about what the Mariners thought
(09:05):
about him, but that and thenthe DH spot, and even going into
the season member Kellenick hadn't really provenanything yet, so left field was a
pretty big hole as well. Ifeel better about this team and kind of
everything going around it, especially ifthey stay healthy then I do going into
last year. Ye, We'll seewhat happens in spring training. Yet,
(09:26):
I mean, if you're have anopening day lineup with a healthy Mitch Hanniger
theoretically hitting eighth, yeah, that'sa much better lineup than the one that
started opening Day, I agree ayear ago. Okay, So let's talk
about a little bit we mentioned itearlier, the extra addition that happened,
Yes, just over a little lessthan a week ago. Gregory Santos from
(09:48):
the Chicago White Sox. I didn'teven know who the Mariners gave up.
Honestly. It was Zagnaloach okay,and pre Lander Barroa right after we talked
about him most episode. Yeah,and a draft pick. Yeah, so
that's what they gave up. Sowe are now in the post Lander barrow
at Europe postly I like it,Okay, It's funny. I was actually
(10:11):
talking a little bit with someone fromthe Mariners organization about not high up but
just more in the the pr sideof things, talking about, uh,
the trade, and you know,I had told him that I was hoping
for things for pre Lander Burrow goinginto this year, and he had mentioned,
(10:33):
like, yeah, it's it's weird. We were too, But you
know, if everything had gone right, Brilliander Burrow would have been Gregory Santos
in terms of his output. Soit's like you're trading the what could be
a prospect to you know, whatis the sure thing quote unquote, I
guess it's called bullpenchure thing, butit's very similar to Polanco. I mean,
there's an argument to be made thatyou may may have given up too
(10:56):
much for a guy that's not oneof those proved out of the bullpen studs.
He's not yet there. But itis a win now move and that's
and people should be applauding this becausethis is what we wanted from this organization
in the last couple of years.All Right, You've put us through a
rebuild. Now we're in a positionwhere we're in that window of trying to
(11:20):
make the playoffs every year, that'sthe goal, and then ultimately to win
a World Series. But you needto start figuring out what win now moves
look like the Polanco move. Youcould argue the Twins won the trade,
but today it absolutely makes the Marinersbetter. They gave up a seventh inning
reliever and a nothing number eight starterin exchange for a number three hitter in
(11:46):
a playoff team, starting lineup,every day, starting lineup. So obviously,
yeah, we can judge this tradefifteen deers down the road, but
for what the Mariners need right now, they needed a Planco a lot more
than they need Topa and Di Sclaffani. Yes, and then I would say
the same thing about Santos. Yes, there was a chance that Deloche gets
(12:09):
into the conversation this spring with Marlowand can Zone. But you've already got
a Marlowe and a Canzone and aTremmel. What do we need another fourth
left hand? You mentioned a Jonathanclass Or and you know who else.
There's a couple of others. Yeah, then they might be a little bit
further away. But the but thoughMarlow and can Zone and they're all in
(12:31):
the in Tremel, they're all inthe same friggin category, so to be
able to trade from surplus. MaybeDeloche ends up being a decent player.
I don't think he's ever going tobe a star. Maybe ends up being
a decent player, and maybe Borrowaends up being as good as Santos.
But Santos is the real deal.So I'm going through my pre season prep
(12:52):
like I always do, and reliefpitching always takes the longest because there are
it's so much turnover, yea,that there are so many guys that you
have to learn that you weren't necessarilymonitoring from a year ago. So I
got eight pages of relief pitcher statsand notes and trying to familiarize myself with
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some guys that maybe I didn't recognizefleu under the radar, and I come
across this name, Gregory Santos,and I'm like, boy, these numbers
are pretty solid, yeah for atwenty four year old, And so I
kind of like circled the name.About a day later, they trade for
Gregory Santos, and then I goeven deeper into my research to find out,
(13:35):
Okay, what exactly did we getanalytics monster. I mean, this
is but if you look at thesurface level stats, which is what I
was looking for looking at on aThursday, and still liked him. And
then all of a sudden you godeeper into the analytics numbers of it,
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and you see things like barrel ratebest in Major League baseball. Okay,
you see things like ninety eight pointeight mile per hour average fastball velocity,
like in the top one point twopercent. That is a major league base
that has sinking action to it too. A ninety one mile per hour slider,
(14:18):
yeah, with action. And yes, the strikeout numbers aren't as great
for somebody that throws one hundred witha ninety one mile per hour sliders.
You think they might be. ButAndrews that actually is encouraging. It is,
yeah, because if you look twoyears ago, he was walking everybody.
He had a seventeen percent strike walkrate. This year he had like
(14:39):
a five. Yeah, might havebeen a five. He's a guy that
missus barrel is more than a guythat blows people away, which I think
is what you need. Okay,but what does that tell you? Though
he was working on not walking guys. Yes, so now that he's sort
of overcome that, overcome that issue, now you put him with Pete Woodworth
(15:00):
with one hundred and ninety slider,and now it's some experience, and now
he is going to start missing barrels. Theoretically, that's what analytics do.
That's what they are there for.They are there to say, you can't
just look at RBI run scored,batting average ra wins. You just can't
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look at that stuff anymore because youwon't be able to forecast as well without
these analytics numbers. The analytics numberssays Matt Brash was one of the best
pitchers in baseball last year, despitethe fact that his surface numbers were not
that good. And now we've justadded another one. Santos. Analytics are
on the Brash level, and thenormal numbers are pretty good too. But
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where he projects at age twenty four, with five years of control, finding
that relief pitcher that is repeatable,repeatably dominant, yeah, is a rare
thing to find, quite valuable,and I think they got one. And
it's still and he's still young too, so it's like he's just a little
bit older than Andres Munos. AndresMunos seems like the baby of the bullpen,
(16:12):
a little bit from the braces foryou exactly. So yeah, no,
I'm all for it. I'm notgoing to act like I dive into
analytics for relief pictures super often,but I'm glad we have you on so
we can kind of get into thata little bit, and that encourages me
a lot. I've always been afan of the sinker fastball. I don't
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even know why. It just seemslike that's so much harder to hit than
just the regular four seamer slider sortof situation. Also induces more ground ball
exactly because a power pitcher. Imean, he gave up some pretty high
velocity eggs of velocity right last year. But it, you know, because
you throw hard and when people makecontact, ball goes farther, and if
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it's hard EXI velocity but then goesinto the ground, it doesn't really make
much of a difference. He hadfifty three percent ground ball rate, which
is very good, very good froma year ago. So yeah, yeah,
so now you're talking, you're talkingHyundi. Yeah, slider, little
bit of experience. Still young,seems to be on the verge. I
mean, this was a surprise becausehe doesn't even look like somebody that an
(17:18):
organization would think about trading right now, right exactly. But the White Socks
are in rebuild mode and their feelingis if we can get a two for
one, if Baroa can be Santos, if not this year, the following
year, and we can get apiece for our outfield. We've already got
a star out there, we justneed like a piece for that. So
it does sort of make sense forthe White Sox and where they're at,
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but it absolutely makes sense for theMariners and to have and I don't know
what order you'd put him in,Andrews, but certainly Santos, Munjos and
Brash as you're seven eight nine backof the bullpen. Yes, I completely
agree. And you know you mentionedthis at the top of the episode,
and you've mentioned this a couple oftimes before too. With how the Mariners
operate with their trades, if youtry and win every trade, it's you're
not going to be able to getsome things that help your baseball team.
(18:03):
I think the Mariners have slightly shiftedtheir thought process on this in order to
improve your team without looking at itfrom a scope of what the other team
is getting and how much maybe theyhave slightly more value on the open market
what you would say, but youneed to do what is like, what
gives you an upgrade for your team. I think they're looking at it from
(18:25):
a more internal perspective, and justlike you would say, if you were
to trade Topa for Santos, whichI think is a comparable trade because you
gave up both of them in backto back deals, or you gave up
one and you got the other andback to back deals, I would take
Santos over Topa. And yeah,I mean the numbers might be close,
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but projecting age, yeah, allof that. And also this is you
know they this might be what theydo best, yes, is to get
to recognize power arms for their bullpenand then coach them up and using the
analytics numbers to figure out how theycan be used best and then Scott Service
(19:08):
implementing them the right way and PeteWoodworth working his magic. The one So
if you did it with Topa,yeah, what are you going to do
with Santos? Yeah? The onesituation where I'm thinking that that didn't work,
and it's happened with It's had thepositive impact on so many players and
that is encouraging. But the oneplayer that we did trade for that we
kind of had higher expectations for bullpenwise and it didn't really work out.
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Was Diego Castillo, and he's kindof a similar profile to Santos, not
to say that he has as muchupside as Santos does, but he has
the sinker slider sort of combination.Hard thrower expected him to be a back
of the bullpen guy. So thatis a one kind of way to look
at it, where it's not afor sure thing. Nothing is in bullpen's
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especially so, but I still think, like like we said, the analytics
really really love this Santa tost guy, So I'm excited to see what they
do with him. Hopefully it's nota Diego Castillo situation. I'm not cherry
picking this, I promise, butI don't. I remember not liking the
Castillo the weight issues that he had. Also, it was coming off the
(20:14):
heels of the Graveman trade. Yesit was so. Graveman was actually a
more effective reliever at the time.Why are you giving him up at that
moment? But Graveman shows the otherside all of the guys that they took
a chance on. True. Gravemanwas a guy that threw ninety five as
a failed starter who couldn't stay healthyfor the A's Yep, they saw bullpen
potential and turned him into a piece. Drew stecken Rider, yep, justin
(20:40):
Topa. Even Sarsado inspired to adegree a year ago, even though by
the end of the year was likewhy is he in the game? Still
there was there. They They've gotan eye for it, and I think
they may have the best pitching coachin the sport. Casey Sadler's coming back
right now. Well, I meanthe bullpen as a whole should be one
(21:00):
of the better ones. I meanthat young trio as the potential being devastating
because I'm expecting Munjos to be better. He did not have a great year
last year. Still is pretty effective, Yeah, for most of the year.
Yeah, he did tail off towardsthe end. Yeah, I think
he was tired. I think thathe was put into the closer role and
they were winning every game in Augustand that wasn't You can't really plan for
(21:25):
that, No, and then thenext thing you know, you're using him
too much and he was tired whenyou needed him most, which stinks.
But those three guys I think aregoing to be devastating at the backside.
And you still have Spyer and Sarsadoas two lefties who if you look at
the numbers a year ago, theywere effective getting out lefties, not righties,
(21:48):
right, but they were affective tothe right. That's what they're for.
They're not supposed to be like youknow, put him in any situation
guys like, that's what Bullpen's like. You maybe have two or three guys
the three of you just mentioned whereyou feel confident against any sort of matchup,
But then you have a bunch ofmatchup guys like you said, Sasato
and Inspire and uh, you know, I don't know, I haven't You
(22:08):
got Thornton, who actually had somereally good numbers last year, who can
work a couple of innings for youat a time. Right, both will
now become your long starter, longreliever and sixth starter, replacing d sclafani.
Right, So that was a pickup. And I mean you still have
(22:29):
Hancock too. If he's not inthe starring rotation, I think he'll start
in the miners. I'm missing oneguy. I don't know why I do
this. I show off the topof my head, but it's all right,
it's all right. The bullpen isthere, and and if Saddler comes
back then he can he could addto that. But there there have been
several guys they've picked up, andI do believe they're one year wonders out
(22:49):
of the pens. Steck and Ryderwas one of them. I don't think
anybody had the plan that he wasgoing to repeat that. But then you've
had the Sea Walds success, starySson, uh, Eric Swatson, Yeah,
he ended up having a couple ofgood years and he's still pitching well
for Toronto right now. So theyknow what they're doing. I mean they
do. Maybe you don't think theyknow what they're doing and anything else,
(23:11):
but they know what they're doing inthis general area. And to have recognized
Santos circled and thought to themselves,well it take to get him, let's
ask. Yeah. I thought itwas a really clever move and I'm really
excited about him bey on this team. I am too. I think definitely
add take some pressure off the Munosand Brash which we talked about, can
(23:33):
really really help them, I think, to get better. And then if
you add in Santos is just talentwise, that's going to make the bullpen
better too. So that takes uskind of to an overall outlook on the
team, and a couple of daysago, Fancrafts, the kind of well
renowned analytics issue website for lots ofplayers and teams, came out with their
(23:57):
playoff in World Series odds, andthe Mariners, to some surprise, were
the fourth shock most right exactly,fourth most likely team in the American League
to make the playoffs and the fifthmost likely team overall to win the World
(24:17):
Series, which is pretty nuts tothink about, especially after coming off the
heels of last year and then thepr fun that came after that. Describe
definitely. So, I mean,it's pretty crazy to think that they still
are by one of the most crediblesources of how good a baseball team is
(24:41):
going to be. They they rankedthem pretty high. So I'm wondering if
you think that's too high. Uh, you know what your thoughts were on
you know where they should be andthen both both for playoffs and World Series.
Yeah, well I have a lotof thoughts. Okay, Number one,
I do think it's a little high. They're ahead of the Orioles.
(25:03):
Okay, now that and this wasafter the Corbyn Burns trade, right like
the Orioles when Grayson Rodriguez becomes astar this year, and they have Corbyn
Burns and they, by the way, the guys you saw in the Orioles
last year, that's not all theyhave. The more they have more coming
and the guys that just got asip of coffee, well they're going to
play expanded roles the cowsers and thecursed Dads and uh. And they've got
(25:27):
other guys on the way. SoI think I think they're higher than what
they should be because of the injuryconcerns that you have with a lot of
the new faces that have been broughtto the offense, they're gonna need They're
gonna need those guys to come through, not all of them, but the
(25:48):
majority of them to come through.So I do believe it's a little high.
But I think the shock and allthey really anders the anger that comes
out of somebody that calls themselves aMariner fan over how dare a publication say
this team's good. I can't reallywrap my head around that. I mean,
(26:11):
we really are in a world ofI told you so. If that's
if that's your driving for it,you can't even be happy that other people
gifted people people that do this fora living. This isn't you know,
This isn't just your local talk showhost. These are guys that, for
a living breakdown baseball and run itthrough math. This isn't even just eyeballing
(26:36):
it. This isn't about a bunchof old kooks, you know, sitting
up there, old scouts ninety yearsold telling you he he looks good.
No, these are people that analyzethe numbers, and I would think you
would be encouraged if they told you, yes, that this team is better
than anyone realizes to be angry aboutit. Really, I don't get it.
(26:59):
Yeah, I don't get it.And so it stems from this,
and we talked about this on theradio show, and you stop me whenever
you want, But it stems fromthis. Anders anybody that was locked in
on the thought this team sucks.Your premise was flawed from the beginning.
(27:19):
Okay, yeah, they never suckedlast year. No it didn't. They
played poorly under the stretches and theygrossly underachieved, but the team did not
suck. Those same people that werelike, this team sucks, get Jerry
out of here. When they didmiss the playoffs, and by the way,
they were in first place in thelast week of the regular season and
(27:44):
then played horribly against the damn Rangersand cost themselves a shot at the division.
Yes, not just making the playoffs, but the division. So your
premise was flawed. Therefore you cannotachieve an accurate result because the moment that
they missed the playoffs, I toldyou they sucked. No, they didn't
(28:08):
suck. Teams that missed the playoffsby a game don't suck. They're not
great. And and you know,but the Arizona Diamondbacks finished four games lower
in the standings than the Mariners andended up in the World Series. So
did they really suck? No,Okay, they got into the playoffs,
(28:30):
they got hot, they made itto the World Series. It's about getting
into the dance. This team fellone game short of making a playoffs,
two games short of winning their division, against a team that won the World
Series and a team that dominated themduring the regular season, the Astros.
And so if you operated under thepremise that this team sucks and there's nothing
(28:55):
they can do in the off seasonthat is going to change my mind besides
kto whatever, yeah, right,besides spend money, then you've operated under
the wrong guys for a year now, so I'm not surprised that baseball people
(29:15):
think the Mariners are going to begood this year. I think the Mariners
are going to be good this year. They missed the playoffs. They missed
the playoffs by one game and grosslyunderachieved. So that means they had good
talent a year ago and didn't getthe job done. So now let's fast
forward to the spring. This isthe best starting rotation, arguably in the
(29:37):
game. This is going to beone of the better bullpens. With the
addition of Santos in the game,they have one of the best young rising
superstars in the game, and theyhave also created a more balanced, deeper
lineup. I think they are overratingthem. Go ahead and quote me on
(29:59):
that. I don't think they're asgood as the fifth best chance to win
the World Series this year, eventhough if they get in with that pitching,
they're very dangerous and it's one ofthe reasons why fans rated them that
highly. But I mean, thereare some flaws to this team, but
a team I give you that descriptionbest pitching in baseball and an improved offense
(30:23):
from a team that missed the playoffsby one game. No one should be
shocked or stunned that people are predictingthem to be a playoff team this year.
Of course they're a playoff team onpaper. But they were a playoff
team on paper last year and cameup short and they failed. That's a
failure. Yes, the players failed, the front office failed, ownership failed,
(30:45):
because the goal was to get intothe playoffs and they missed. Yeah,
all right, but this year,same goal. This should be a
playoff team, and once they getinto the playoffs, because of the pitching,
they should be ultra dangerous. It'sthe same thing, even though the
lineup looks completely different. Yeah,I actually I have a little bit different
(31:06):
viewpoint on this. I actually thinkthey're rated correctly. Oh yeah, I
think. Yeah, just kind ofwhat we talked about in the beginning of
this episode, where like, ifyou have that elite pitching, this offense
matches up with that better, it'sgonna be more. You don't have to,
you know, go through super hotstreaks with your offense in order to
score runs. Maybe they're going tostart manufacturing runs. God forbid, you
(31:29):
start stealing a little bit with anyoneother than Julio. I don't know.
But I just think the frustration atleast from me the people that I talked
to, and I feel like I'min different circles of fans than you are.
Yeah, and the frustration comes frombecause the team doesn't suck, because
(31:52):
we are in a place where weshould be good. Why aren't we taking
it over the top so finishing,Yeah, exactly. So I think your
a thousand, right, Yeah,so it it doesn't seem like maybe we
still haven't done that, but thisis a more better, bigger step in
the right direction this team going intothis year than I feel like last year,
where they kind of just yeah,they got Tao after a really good
(32:15):
twenty twenty two and a good playoffshowing too, where I think most people
had a lot of optimism going intolast year. They kind of just banked
on that and hoped it would workagain, everything would work the same way.
So this year they're like, Okay, you know what, we're not
going to go about that same thing. We're gonna make our team better in
some ways. And maybe we don'thave the payroll to necessarily just go and
(32:36):
spend money and add to what wehave, but we're gonna, you know,
improve in different aspects of the game. Keep that elite pitching, the
core that we have of the superstarin Julio. The you know, JP
hopefully has another step forward. CalCan just be one of the best catchers
in the game. I still believehe has more upside to get to.
Yeah. So I think this honestly, this team and for the World Series
(33:00):
odds. We talked about the playoffs. Just overall World Series odds. The
only teams the Mariners are behind arethe Astros, the Dodgers, the Yankees,
and the Race. Yeah Braves,excuse me, Yeah, sorry,
not the Race. The Rays areright behind the Mariners. So those are
four really good baseball teams. Yes, especially since you know, maybe the
(33:21):
Yankees are a little overrated. Ithink you and I both agree on that.
But they're always going to have thatpizazz to their name. And yeah,
yeah, so I love Sodo.Yeah so they add Sodo and that
suddenly takes them from mediocre to Theywere bad last year. They were worse
than the Mariners last Yeah, bylike a large margin. Uh huh So
yeah, so were the Mets.Yes, and all they're like by fourteen
(33:42):
eighteen games or something like that.Yeah, so, I mean I don't
think this is an incorrect rating,but I don't. I mean, I
do understand where the frustration lied lastyear. And if fans don't have the
optimism that they had going into lastyear because of what has been shown the
past, you know, four orfive years of this this team, it
just seems like they they are allergicto getting over the top. And I
(34:06):
think, well, there have beenmoves this offseason that are starting to fly
in the face of that a littlebit. Agree they haven't fallen in love
with every single one of their prospectswith I thought that they were in danger
of doing that. And maybe that'sjustin Hollander kind of wrestling away some of
the control from Jerry, but Ithink that they as an organization were afraid
(34:27):
to part with any of their prospects, and that's a dangerous place to be
in. So they've made a couplemoves to try and win now. And
I'll look, I mean, we'renever going to know the result of this,
but I mean, just think aboutthe Texas Rangers last year won the
World Series and they still only finishedahead of this team by two games.
Yeah, and going into the lastweek, we were ahead of them.
(34:49):
Exactly. Yeah, and their offense. Almost every single player, including the
top guys. Yeah, O hada career here, Corey Seeger had a
career here, had the best yearof his career. Marcus Simeon I think
had a better one in Toronto.Uh maybe even in Oakland. So maybe
it wasn't his best, but itwas still on par. I mean,
it was still talking about mister Consistency'sseven more player. Garcia had his best
(35:13):
year, yep Heim had his bestyear. Carver uh yeah, uh one
of them. Tavares had been lost, he had the best year of his
career, and the Carter and thereand so you have a well then that
then they get Evan Carter exactly whenthey needed it, when they were starting
to sputter. They call up EvanCarter and he's like the best player on
their team. He was, okayout of their best player in the playoffs,
(35:36):
and they're pitching, which was badall season long and still is by
the way. It started to breakdown. They get into the playoffs and
then all of a sudden it's astrength and every one of their bullpen guys
is playing out of their mind.Yeah, okay, they're good. They're
contender. But let's flip the otherside. I'm telling you, if any
one of these things happens, theMariners make the playoffs. And yet they're
(36:00):
people out there that think they stunka year ago. Ty Franz has an
average season, they make the playoffs. Colton Wong isn't the worst place.
He could even have been a badpoint. He could have been a zero
war player and the Marrions would havemade the playoffs. If he was just
a zero war player, a replacementplayer, they make the playoffs. If
you're I think I'm crazy for this, but I'm just spitting through the roster
(36:21):
right now. Tom Murphy doesn't gethurt for the rest of the season the
way that he was hitting, Imean, go back and look at his
numbers, how he was crushing thebaseball. And he doesn't get hurt,
they probably make the playoffs. Yeah, you know, so you don't trade
Seawold. You make the playoffs becauseof not because of Seawold, but because
(36:44):
of what we talked about earlier.Because Munjos doesn't have to be overtax in
the month. If you add aguy at the trading deadline and not subtract
from it, you make the playoffs, you don't get off to a horrible
start that you got to dig outof for the first two months you make
the play Yeah, Julio Rodriguez,the best player on the team, doesn't
hit so poorly with runners at secondand third all season long. I mean,
(37:07):
it's just you can just go onand on and on and on.
But there's there's a few I'll pushback a little bit on that because there's
a few instances where you could saythat about the opposite end. If Kellenick
doesn't have a crazy month of Apriland half month of May, then the
Mariners are probably two or three gamesworse. If JP Crawford doesn't take a
massive step forward, which I don'tthink most saw coming, by the way,
(37:30):
that's a that's a few games rightthere. If Julio doesn't go hit
like four fifty in the month ofAugust, well everybody was hitting, then
yeah, it's true. Then thenyou're if you don't go on a franchise
record month of August, what wasit, twenty games? Okay, but
I still think the team overall underachieved. Yeah, no, I agree.
(37:52):
I'm not saying that Tao struck outthirty times more than he did the
Pies. I just think it's it'snot fully correct to say that everything went
wrong and if one thing went right, the Mariners went to make the playoffs.
I think it's it's a combination ofboth. Probably more on the negative
side, I'll take that. ButI think if you put the on the
scales, yeah, the Mariners arein there. So this is actually a
(38:14):
good way to look at it,because in the twenty twenty two season,
I think most went right. Almosteverything that you did was a positive.
The only negative I can think ofwas Jesse Winker not being as good of
a player as you expected of him. But Gino was way overachieved in twenty
twenty two. Your bullpen, you'restarting five, stayed healthy the entire season.
(38:35):
That's a huge thing. Your bullpenwas above what most expected it to
be. Julio on his rookie yearis better than most expected him to be.
There's a lot of cases where thebest case scenario happened. So I
think if one hundred percent is everythinggoes right, zero percent is no things
go right, and twenty twenty twoyere at probably ninety to ninety five percent.
(38:57):
I think last year you're in theforty maybe thirty percent, where like
most things go wrong, a fewthings go right. Of all the volatility
options in baseball, which there area lot, you know, you I
wish, and I think this iswhere a lot of the frustration from the
fans towards the front office kind ofcomes from. You should be able to
build a baseball team to where theyare a playoff team, even when you
(39:22):
slightly underachieve, so like last year. Yeah, yeah, so I understand
that, no, this team doesnot suck, but they still should have
the ability to They should have tradeat the deadline to improve exactly, And
that would have been the exact movethat you're talking. Gonna have positives,
you're gonna have negatives, You're gonnahave overachievers, you're gonna have underachievers.
(39:44):
But I would state that the Rangershad a lot more over it they did
underachievers, and the Mariners had alot more underachievers than over Itch. And
there's the difference in in the inthe season. So long way of saying
that, when I see the Fangraftstory come out, yes I'm not surprised.
(40:07):
I mean I know, slightly maybe, And the other thing is I've
got them projected as a playoff teamwho's very dangerous getting if they get into
the playoffs. Totally, and Ithink most people do. And if you
don't, all right, that's fine. I'm not going to tell you how
to fan, but you're not goingto tell me how to analyze. And
I think that my analysis represents whatthe national guys are saying about this baseball
(40:32):
team, and there is talent andit should make the playoffs this year.
Yeah, I completely agree. Andthe other thing to think about, we
talked about the zero to one hundred. I think in previous years that range
is so much bigger than it isthis year. The low end of your
team, if nothing goes right,I still think is probably eighty games winning
(40:55):
a five hundred team. That's thelow end, like if everything goes wrong.
And I think this, even thoughmaybe the ceiling isn't as high,
you probably aren't going to be onehundred win baseball team. They don't look
like a hundred win team to makefor sure, but they look like a
team that you know it's gonna happen. Less of a range of uh,
you know, if nothing goes rightversus everything goes right, it's gonna be
(41:15):
much more of a consistent baseball team, and I think easier for fans to
follow instead of go through the upsand the downs of the season, where
like, Okay, we have agood idea of what this baseball team is.
I don't think last year anyone hadan idea of what that how good
that team was, because for solong of the so much of the year,
it was like, this team doesn'tlook good, and then August they
(41:36):
look like, oh my god,they're the best team in baseball, They're
gonna win the World Series. Andthen and then last ten games of the
season, what are we doing?So I don't think it's gonna be like
that for this year. I reallydon't. Ten game window, I put
it at eighty four to ninety four. Eighty four low, ninety four high,
I agree, agree, Okay,yeah, so I think that's and
that's a good thing. I don't. Yeah, I think that's a good
(41:59):
range for your aiming for, especiallywith payroll limitations and average about eighty nine,
which would put them as the sameteam they've been for the last three
years. Yeah. So even thoughthis is probably a similar result team as
the last couple of years, Istill think the range is lower which is
(42:20):
a good thing. So yeah,I mean that's where I think I agree
with the fangrafts. I if theyget in the playoffs, they're a dangerous
team with that pitching. I stillthink I've mentioned this before. Hitting actually
plays better during the regular season.I think if you have a good offense
and average pitching versus an average offenseand good pitching, the offensive team is
(42:42):
going to have a better regular season. But then when you get to the
postseason, that's when the pitching becomesa huge factor. So that's where I
think the Mariners just need to getin and then they can beat anyone.
Well a little more consistency, yeah, not getting off to the bad start,
not having the terrible stretches of offensivelackluster performances. You're going to have
(43:02):
a pitching staff that's going to beable to repeat some really good outings this
year. And that's why they structuredit the way that they did. They
are looking to simply put the ballin play more often, and theoretically that
will result in more runs. Yeah, and if you can, you know,
you're right. JP probably won't haveas good a season as he did
(43:23):
a year ago, but I expectCal's going to have a better one.
Yep. I think Ty has tohave a better one, and I think
Julio's going to have a better one. Yeah, And Sean, it's crazy
to think how much better that guycan get. Well, and that's just
it. I mean, he's gettingready to enter his age twenty three season,
his third full year of Major Leaguebaseball. We talked about this a
(43:46):
little bit on the radio show.As good as he's been, he can
be a lot better. Yeah,there's parts of his game that he can
improve on. He's gone two yearsin a row where he hasn't even hit
till June, right, and soa little different approach the beginning of the
year, gets some numbers going earlyon, and not beat yourself up over
(44:08):
having failed your team in big situations, and who knows what he's capable of.
Mike Petriello, another analytics guy,does the MLB Network countdown with oh
what's his name? Oh gosh,the king of analytics? Well, can
(44:29):
I think Brian Kenny? So hedoes it with Brian Kenny, and so
everybody on the panel took Aaron Judgeas the number one center fielder. Petriello
took Julio okay, and was howcould you pick Julio. Well, just
I think he's better, well rounded. He does everything well. He also
plays better defense, He's younger andhas a chance to stay healthier than what
(44:53):
Judge does. But also, youdon't do that if you don't think that
he's ready to put up the superstarnumbers. We all recognize Julio as a
superstar, but he's still not puttingup superstar numbers. He's putting up all
star numbers through two years of hisof his career, and that's put him
in the top seven and MVP votingeach of the last two years. But
(45:16):
Mike Trout's third full season, Imean we're talking one hundred plus points more
on the ops who they had aneight eighteen ops good good, not great,
Right, Mike Trout was putting upnine to sixty by his third year
in the league, So he's gota lot of room of improvement. He
(45:37):
still has not put up superstar numbers, but they're coming, yeah, and
there's a chance they could come thisyear. Yeah. And I struggle to
really compare Julio to Mike Trout,like, because that is one player to
be compared to. But if youlook at you know how the first couple
of years have gone. Uh,it's pretty mirroring of Mike Trout's career,
(45:57):
and I this is where like bankingon him being as good as Mike Troud
is one of the best center fieldwas fielders to ever play. The game
is tough for someone at the ageof twenty three to have that expectation and
if you're not good, the teamis not going to be good. But
a I think he can handle it. She's shown that his personality and even
after last year, after having whata seven and a half war season or
(46:21):
something like that, oh maybe eveneight war he was fourth in MVP voting,
All Star, Silver Slogger, allthat fun stuff. He was He
was quoted by saying he was frustratedand he felt he wasn't good last year,
and that he has been working inthe batting cages and working on his
game, like all offseason, notgoing out, not going on vacation like
(46:44):
a lot of players do at thistime of the year. He's been working
at his game, which I thinktells you a lot about you know,
his personality and how the expectations hehas for himself and the fact that he
thinks he can be that guy.He thinks he can be the Mike Trout
of this team, which is prettycrazy to think about. Now, let's
(47:04):
make sure we do the non MicTrout thing and make sure we get into
the postseason more often than once.Well, yeah, no doubt. And
look, I mean, great isthe most overused word in our industry.
It's rarely achieved, and yet itis so you know, grossly administered when
(47:27):
talking about athletes. I agree,greatness requires great ability, and then that
person has to pursue greatness greatly,Okay, And so it all starts with
the ability. And he has theability to be great, and I think
he has the mentality to be greatand if he does, and I think
he should have come off of lastseason and said, look at all those
(47:52):
times I stranded runners. Yeah,look at that month of April. But
so many players at the age oftwo twenty two, after having back to
back eight hundred plus ops seasons,would be like, damn, I'm good,
like you know, like I'm good. I'm one of the best players
in baseball. Well, you gotpaid one of the best players in baseball.
You got slapped right on the stadium. You are the face of the
(48:14):
franchise and I think he can handleit, and I think he is going
to take more strides and maybe wedon't get up to forty five fifty homers
like Aaron Judge. Yes, butI defense, I think I certainly expect
something around nine hundred. Yeah.I agree on an ops this year,
and that's going to require about thirtyfive to forty Yeah, And so I
(48:37):
don't need him to steal as muchif he doesn't want to steal as much.
Trout's numbers dwindled, of course,he's got it easier now. It's
easier to steal bases at this point, but more consistency putting the ball in
play, particularly with the runners inscoring position. He's definitely got an opportunity
to take his game to another level. There was another level or two still
(48:58):
that he can reach because I Ithink he's a superstar and he's not yet
put up superstar numbers. I agree, and we both agree that he is
and he will eventually put up thosenumbers. It's it's just I hate banking
on that, and like usually whenyou do have, like are putting that
much expectations on a player for yourteam to be good, and for someone
(49:21):
so young, it rarely works out. But like we said, if there's
anyone that can handle it, it'shim. So I really really hope that
comes through. I just wish wecould put a couple more pieces around him
to you know, get him someprotection, which it seems like we've done
this year to where he can thrivea little bit more and be put in
better situations. And he's not gettingyou know, Pitcher's best stuff, and
(49:44):
they're pitching around him all the time. It's just all it's all a numbers
game. So well, Polanco's jobscut out for him. Yeah, and
look when you look at this teamand you do recognize the holes. Like
I said earlier in the podcast,this isn't the finished product. Now,
a roster, your star arting theseason with. And so as long as
you get off to the good start, and as long as you stay in
(50:05):
the race and you're not constantly likeare we are we? Is this ore
here? You know, asking thatquestion. You get in the race early,
stay in the race, get tothe trading deadline, and then you
get to do the fun stuff likeall right, where are we week?
And where do we need to improve? This third base situation is not acceptable.
(50:27):
Hanniger's down with an injury. Again, we knew corner outfield was a
concern going into the season, Sowho's available corner? Then you get to
make the adjustments to your I don'tknow who said that. Those kind of
was in my headset. I look, I'm expecting a little bit of a
bounce back from Okay, but it'sprobably not going to be adequate Freddy Freeman.
(50:53):
Yeah, but I am expecting alittle bit of a bounce back.
And look at us. We're aless than a week away from pictures and
com man. I can hear thecleats on the concrete right now. Oh,
birds chirping. Yeah. I gottamake it down to Arizona with you
guys one of these times. Wow. Yeah, fun. We're trying to
(51:14):
get Ashley down this year, sowe just got to expand the operation by
one person. Let's do it everyyear. Yep, it is blast.
It is a blast. I lookforward to it every year, and and
it'll be a different it honestly willbe a different kind of spring training coverage
for us. Yeah, because we'regoing to have to. It's not been
a good off season from a PRstandpoint. We got to ask some tough
(51:36):
questions of guys like Jerry Depoto andScott's service. We just had Justin on,
so I'll probably do a little morelighthearted one with him. Yeah,
that's fun. But talking to calabout the future and hopefully we get Julio
on talk about whether or not hefeels the organizations doing what it can to
surround him with talent. Yeah,you know, those those are probably going
to be something like the one ofthe more difficult spring trainings, more difficult
(52:01):
questions that we're going to bring tothe table we have to, and yet
I still have the same expectation.I think it's a playoff team on paper.
I agree. All right, that'lldo it for us. Thanks for
joining us. We appreciate it.We'll have one more episode next week before
spring training coverage does begin, somake sure you're checking us out right here
(52:23):
where you find you your podcast,and of course listen from six to six
point thirty every day Sports Radio ninetythree point three KJRFM for anders Hurst.
My name is Chuck pal Thanks forlistening to Stove
Stove. What a kind of nameis that. It's a great name.
Yeah, that's what it is.That's a great name. And I will
you will mind your p's and q's. Lady, Hey, it's Chuck and
it is Anders with you here foranother episode of Stove. If you depend
upon the music that we play,apologies, sorry, we're not playing music
(00:22):
anymore. Yeah, Nelly wants toomuch money. So it's just Anders and
I coming at you with another Marinersoff season episode of our Stove podcast and
always something juicy to break down andno exception today. Yeah, and you
know, we were kind of justchatting as we were walking into the studio
here today. This has kind ofbeen a weird off season for the Mariners.
(00:45):
Not really like amazing, not likeawful either, has been just kind
of a mixed bag of everything.So and that's no different with what's happened
over the weekend than Gregory Santos tradefrom the Chicago White Sox. Not exactly
who we were asking for from theWhite Sox, but I nonetheless I still
think it's a good move and theMariners upgraded another part of their team.
(01:07):
Yeah, a bit down the list. Just to your first point though,
I don't know if we've ever seenan off season like this. And we
had Justin Hollander on about I don'tknow a week ago on our radio show
and I asked him about time offand he goes, honestly, goes,
we've been NonStop since the season ended. And I kind of believe him.
(01:30):
You know, they're the only they'velike there have been like fifteen trades this
off season in an all of MajorLeague Baseball, and they've made like six
of them. Yeah, I mean, it's crazy. And clearly ownership Anders
said you can't spend as much aswe said that you were going to be
able to spend in twenty twenty four, and they really wanted to restructure the
(01:53):
way they went arout their offense.Yes, and so for them to have
made it many creative move money,get young, get prospects, get impact
bats. You know, the waythat they moved the pieces on the game
board around, I'm not sure I'veever seen it done before. And I
(02:15):
mean, we had the conversation acouple of weeks ago about stack what they
gave up versus what they brought in, and I took what they gave up
was the better group, more talentedyes, you know, but that was
and that was right after the Polancotrade. And yet I think they have
fewer holes offensively, and I thinkthere's better balance offensively. There were too
(02:40):
many strikeout guys in the lineup,no matter how talented tail is kel nic
ridiculous talent, and I still amso worried about what he's gonna do next.
But if nothing else, you know, whether you give it a whatever
letter grade you give the Mariners thisoffseason, number one, it's gotten the
(03:02):
attention of a lot of baseball peopleout there. They seem to really like
what they've done. And if nothingelse, even if you don't like it,
if you're on the other side,and I'm somewhere in the middle,
by the way, yeah i'm too. Very creative, Yeah, very creative.
Job of we can't add payroll,but we do have to fix and
(03:23):
restructure the entirety of our offensive gameplan around Julio, right, And what
they came up with was innovative,if nothing else, Yeah, And I
think the best way for me todescribe, you know, what the Mariners
have done so far, at leastthis saseason, it looks like they're probably
winding down a little bit usually whenyou get there to be yeah, usually
(03:44):
when you get to the adding reliever'spiece, it's like, Okay, this
is just the extra little icing onthe cake sort of thing. Not that
Gregory Santos is a nothing. He'sa big piece that we're going to talk
about here in a second. ButI think the best way to describe it
is like, kind of what wedid with the indgoing and out goings is
the actual talent level. I don'tthink has actually raised that much, if
at all, But I think theway they go about and the kind of
(04:09):
the best way to describe it isif you were a football team you're building,
you're getting players that actually fit yourscheme, right, and this is
the scheme quote unquote. The Marinersare trying to do less strikeouts. You
know, it pairs better with elitepitching, which they have. You're just
trying to put the ball in playand put pressure on the other pitching staffs
to keep up with the elite pitchingstaff that is the Mariners. So I
(04:32):
think that is going to you know, pair well, and the way they
go about winning their baseball games,it's going to match a little bit better
this year than it did last year. Where you know, we went through
so many big stretches of cold bats, and I don't think that'll happen as
much this year. You're more balanced, Yeah, you're deeper and frankly,
I mean Gino was in third alot. Yeah, sure you're not a
(04:55):
third place later. No, Imean maybe Jore Polanco on a great offense,
isn't the third place hitter either,but he's a better hitter than Gino
Swarez. Yeah. And you can'tthink about this team as Gino for Eureus
and Rojas. You have to thinkabout this as Gino for Garver because that's
or Polanco, because that's really thedecision. It's we're we owe him eleven
(05:19):
and a half twelve million dollars andwe like his defense, But is there
a better way to spend that elevenand a half twelve million dollars? Well,
Garver's making twelve, Polonko's making eleven. So whichever one you want to
put right into that equation. Allright. If you want to compare Ureus
and Rojas to Suarez his defense,yes, and say that's a down grade,
(05:41):
well, there's no getting around now. They're going to play third base
or not. You either can defendthird base or not, and that is
a downgrade defensively, but from anoffensive standpoint. To trade swore as for
Garver, a healthy Garver, wouldyou take if he was just if you
had the same contract he has now, would you have taken thisrez for Mitch
Garver? Trade just one for one? Well, I'm still worried about the
(06:06):
health. The health, yeah,so I can't just leap at that,
But I know that a healthy Garveris a better middle of the order hitter
than a healthy Genu. And Isay the same thing when it comes to
ty France too. On the negativeside, a you know, seven to
fifty ops at third base is differentthan a seven to fifty ops at DH,
(06:28):
And it's different than a seven tofifty ops at first base, and
it's different than a seven to fiftyops at second base. Every position,
and maybe you and I disagree alittle bit on this. I think every
position, you know, whether it'show you build your team around it or
whatever, and if you have goodhitters overall that it shouldn't matter that much.
But I still think that you canget more value from having good hitters
(06:50):
in a DH spot and then havinggood defenders in a third base and in
a shortstop or a short field andall that kind of stuff. But yeah,
I mean it's just kind of howyou piece the pie together a little
bit, I guess. Yeah,Polonko versus Sores, Yeah, Polonko for
sure, definitely I agree with that. So then Garver versus Tao. One's
(07:12):
more talented, yep, one stayson the field more. But I'm not
sure that if I got a healthyGarver that I wouldn't want the guy that
puts the ball in play more often, draws more walks, h and yeah,
Tao's got the potential at thirty tothirty five homers, where Garver probably
maxes out at twenty five. Ithink he has the thirty bomb in him
(07:33):
if he's healthy all season. Ijust think he can hit thirty home runs.
Yes, well, then that's that'san upgrade. Yeah, So that's
kind of the way that you haveto compare. I mean, make no
mistake about it, there are someholes still in this team, but this
is not what you put out thereon opening Day. Doesn't have to be
what you live with exactly. Thereare opportunities, and it's probably the biggest
(07:57):
source of frustration of last season.Is that. I know it is.
It's Jerry told us in spring trainingwe're a bat short, and he never
addressed it. And I asked JustinHollander about that very thing, and he
admitted that we never addressed it andit was the biggest mistake that we made
last year. So so yeah,it's it's restructured, it's rebuilt. But
(08:18):
I do think it is more balanced, It is deeper. The team is
deeper. Yeah, the major leagueroster is deeper. Yeah. The question
with this team, they're going tostrike out less. The question with this
team is can it stay healthy?Yeah, and that is I guess another
volatile part of the sport is hishealth, along with you know, striking
out and being having cold bats.But I still think I don't know about
(08:41):
what your thoughts are on this.I feel much better about the quote unquote
holes of this team than I didabout the holes of the last year's team.
Going into the year, I thinka lot of people thought Wong was
an upgrade. I was still worriedabout that. Did not think he'd be
as bad as he was. Hetalked about that as many times as we
can, but the fact that hewasn't even starting on opening Day, he
tells you, I think everything youneed to know about what the Mariners thought
(09:05):
about him, but that and thenthe DH spot, and even going into
the season member Kellenick hadn't really provenanything yet, so left field was a
pretty big hole as well. Ifeel better about this team and kind of
everything going around it, especially ifthey stay healthy then I do going into
last year. Ye, We'll seewhat happens in spring training. Yet,
(09:26):
I mean, if you're have anopening day lineup with a healthy Mitch Hanniger
theoretically hitting eighth, yeah, that'sa much better lineup than the one that
started opening Day, I agree ayear ago. Okay, So let's talk
about a little bit we mentioned itearlier, the extra addition that happened,
Yes, just over a little lessthan a week ago. Gregory Santos from
(09:48):
the Chicago White Sox. I didn'teven know who the Mariners gave up.
Honestly. It was Zagnaloach okay,and pre Lander Barroa right after we talked
about him most episode. Yeah,and a draft pick. Yeah, so
that's what they gave up. Sowe are now in the post Lander barrow
at Europe postly I like it,Okay, It's funny. I was actually
(10:11):
talking a little bit with someone fromthe Mariners organization about not high up but
just more in the the pr sideof things, talking about, uh,
the trade, and you know,I had told him that I was hoping
for things for pre Lander Burrow goinginto this year, and he had mentioned,
(10:33):
like, yeah, it's it's weird. We were too, But you
know, if everything had gone right, Brilliander Burrow would have been Gregory Santos
in terms of his output. Soit's like you're trading the what could be
a prospect to you know, whatis the sure thing quote unquote, I
guess it's called bullpenchure thing, butit's very similar to Polanco. I mean,
there's an argument to be made thatyou may may have given up too
(10:56):
much for a guy that's not oneof those proved out of the bullpen studs.
He's not yet there. But itis a win now move and that's
and people should be applauding this becausethis is what we wanted from this organization
in the last couple of years.All Right, You've put us through a
rebuild. Now we're in a positionwhere we're in that window of trying to
(11:20):
make the playoffs every year, that'sthe goal, and then ultimately to win
a World Series. But you needto start figuring out what win now moves
look like the Polanco move. Youcould argue the Twins won the trade,
but today it absolutely makes the Marinersbetter. They gave up a seventh inning
reliever and a nothing number eight starterin exchange for a number three hitter in
(11:46):
a playoff team, starting lineup,every day, starting lineup. So obviously,
yeah, we can judge this tradefifteen deers down the road, but
for what the Mariners need right now, they needed a Planco a lot more
than they need Topa and Di Sclaffani. Yes, and then I would say
the same thing about Santos. Yes, there was a chance that Deloche gets
(12:09):
into the conversation this spring with Marlowand can Zone. But you've already got
a Marlowe and a Canzone and aTremmel. What do we need another fourth
left hand? You mentioned a Jonathanclass Or and you know who else.
There's a couple of others. Yeah, then they might be a little bit
further away. But the but thoughMarlow and can Zone and they're all in
(12:31):
the in Tremel, they're all inthe same friggin category, so to be
able to trade from surplus. MaybeDeloche ends up being a decent player.
I don't think he's ever going tobe a star. Maybe ends up being
a decent player, and maybe Borrowaends up being as good as Santos.
But Santos is the real deal.So I'm going through my pre season prep
(12:52):
like I always do, and reliefpitching always takes the longest because there are
it's so much turnover, yea,that there are so many guys that you
have to learn that you weren't necessarilymonitoring from a year ago. So I
got eight pages of relief pitcher statsand notes and trying to familiarize myself with
(13:13):
some guys that maybe I didn't recognizefleu under the radar, and I come
across this name, Gregory Santos,and I'm like, boy, these numbers
are pretty solid, yeah for atwenty four year old, And so I
kind of like circled the name.About a day later, they trade for
Gregory Santos, and then I goeven deeper into my research to find out,
(13:35):
Okay, what exactly did we getanalytics monster. I mean, this
is but if you look at thesurface level stats, which is what I
was looking for looking at on aThursday, and still liked him. And
then all of a sudden you godeeper into the analytics numbers of it,
(13:56):
and you see things like barrel ratebest in Major League baseball. Okay,
you see things like ninety eight pointeight mile per hour average fastball velocity,
like in the top one point twopercent. That is a major league base
that has sinking action to it too. A ninety one mile per hour slider,
(14:18):
yeah, with action. And yes, the strikeout numbers aren't as great
for somebody that throws one hundred witha ninety one mile per hour sliders.
You think they might be. ButAndrews that actually is encouraging. It is,
yeah, because if you look twoyears ago, he was walking everybody.
He had a seventeen percent strike walkrate. This year he had like
(14:39):
a five. Yeah, might havebeen a five. He's a guy that
missus barrel is more than a guythat blows people away, which I think
is what you need. Okay,but what does that tell you? Though
he was working on not walking guys. Yes, so now that he's sort
of overcome that, overcome that issue, now you put him with Pete Woodworth
(15:00):
with one hundred and ninety slider,and now it's some experience, and now
he is going to start missing barrels. Theoretically, that's what analytics do.
That's what they are there for.They are there to say, you can't
just look at RBI run scored,batting average ra wins. You just can't
(15:26):
look at that stuff anymore because youwon't be able to forecast as well without
these analytics numbers. The analytics numberssays Matt Brash was one of the best
pitchers in baseball last year, despitethe fact that his surface numbers were not
that good. And now we've justadded another one. Santos. Analytics are
on the Brash level, and thenormal numbers are pretty good too. But
(15:50):
where he projects at age twenty four, with five years of control, finding
that relief pitcher that is repeatable,repeatably dominant, yeah, is a rare
thing to find, quite valuable,and I think they got one. And
it's still and he's still young too, so it's like he's just a little
bit older than Andres Munos. AndresMunos seems like the baby of the bullpen,
(16:12):
a little bit from the braces foryou exactly. So yeah, no,
I'm all for it. I'm notgoing to act like I dive into
analytics for relief pictures super often,but I'm glad we have you on so
we can kind of get into thata little bit, and that encourages me
a lot. I've always been afan of the sinker fastball. I don't
(16:34):
even know why. It just seemslike that's so much harder to hit than
just the regular four seamer slider sortof situation. Also induces more ground ball
exactly because a power pitcher. Imean, he gave up some pretty high
velocity eggs of velocity right last year. But it, you know, because
you throw hard and when people makecontact, ball goes farther, and if
(16:56):
it's hard EXI velocity but then goesinto the ground, it doesn't really make
much of a difference. He hadfifty three percent ground ball rate, which
is very good, very good froma year ago. So yeah, yeah,
so now you're talking, you're talkingHyundi. Yeah, slider, little
bit of experience. Still young,seems to be on the verge. I
mean, this was a surprise becausehe doesn't even look like somebody that an
(17:18):
organization would think about trading right now, right exactly. But the White Socks
are in rebuild mode and their feelingis if we can get a two for
one, if Baroa can be Santos, if not this year, the following
year, and we can get apiece for our outfield. We've already got
a star out there, we justneed like a piece for that. So
it does sort of make sense forthe White Sox and where they're at,
(17:40):
but it absolutely makes sense for theMariners and to have and I don't know
what order you'd put him in,Andrews, but certainly Santos, Munjos and
Brash as you're seven eight nine backof the bullpen. Yes, I completely
agree. And you know you mentionedthis at the top of the episode,
and you've mentioned this a couple oftimes before too. With how the Mariners
operate with their trades, if youtry and win every trade, it's you're
not going to be able to getsome things that help your baseball team.
(18:03):
I think the Mariners have slightly shiftedtheir thought process on this in order to
improve your team without looking at itfrom a scope of what the other team
is getting and how much maybe theyhave slightly more value on the open market
what you would say, but youneed to do what is like, what
gives you an upgrade for your team. I think they're looking at it from
(18:25):
a more internal perspective, and justlike you would say, if you were
to trade Topa for Santos, whichI think is a comparable trade because you
gave up both of them in backto back deals, or you gave up
one and you got the other andback to back deals, I would take
Santos over Topa. And yeah,I mean the numbers might be close,
(18:45):
but projecting age, yeah, allof that. And also this is you
know they this might be what theydo best, yes, is to get
to recognize power arms for their bullpenand then coach them up and using the
analytics numbers to figure out how theycan be used best and then Scott Service
(19:08):
implementing them the right way and PeteWoodworth working his magic. The one So
if you did it with Topa,yeah, what are you going to do
with Santos? Yeah? The onesituation where I'm thinking that that didn't work,
and it's happened with It's had thepositive impact on so many players and
that is encouraging. But the oneplayer that we did trade for that we
kind of had higher expectations for bullpenwise and it didn't really work out.
(19:30):
Was Diego Castillo, and he's kindof a similar profile to Santos, not
to say that he has as muchupside as Santos does, but he has
the sinker slider sort of combination.Hard thrower expected him to be a back
of the bullpen guy. So thatis a one kind of way to look
at it, where it's not afor sure thing. Nothing is in bullpen's
(19:52):
especially so, but I still think, like like we said, the analytics
really really love this Santa tost guy, So I'm excited to see what they
do with him. Hopefully it's nota Diego Castillo situation. I'm not cherry
picking this, I promise, butI don't. I remember not liking the
Castillo the weight issues that he had. Also, it was coming off the
(20:14):
heels of the Graveman trade. Yesit was so. Graveman was actually a
more effective reliever at the time.Why are you giving him up at that
moment? But Graveman shows the otherside all of the guys that they took
a chance on. True. Gravemanwas a guy that threw ninety five as
a failed starter who couldn't stay healthyfor the A's Yep, they saw bullpen
potential and turned him into a piece. Drew stecken Rider, yep, justin
(20:40):
Topa. Even Sarsado inspired to adegree a year ago, even though by
the end of the year was likewhy is he in the game? Still
there was there. They They've gotan eye for it, and I think
they may have the best pitching coachin the sport. Casey Sadler's coming back
right now. Well, I meanthe bullpen as a whole should be one
(21:00):
of the better ones. I meanthat young trio as the potential being devastating
because I'm expecting Munjos to be better. He did not have a great year
last year. Still is pretty effective, Yeah, for most of the year.
Yeah, he did tail off towardsthe end. Yeah, I think
he was tired. I think thathe was put into the closer role and
they were winning every game in Augustand that wasn't You can't really plan for
(21:25):
that, No, and then thenext thing you know, you're using him
too much and he was tired whenyou needed him most, which stinks.
But those three guys I think aregoing to be devastating at the backside.
And you still have Spyer and Sarsadoas two lefties who if you look at
the numbers a year ago, theywere effective getting out lefties, not righties,
(21:48):
right, but they were affective tothe right. That's what they're for.
They're not supposed to be like youknow, put him in any situation
guys like, that's what Bullpen's like. You maybe have two or three guys
the three of you just mentioned whereyou feel confident against any sort of matchup,
But then you have a bunch ofmatchup guys like you said, Sasato
and Inspire and uh, you know, I don't know, I haven't You
(22:08):
got Thornton, who actually had somereally good numbers last year, who can
work a couple of innings for youat a time. Right, both will
now become your long starter, longreliever and sixth starter, replacing d sclafani.
Right, So that was a pickup. And I mean you still have
(22:29):
Hancock too. If he's not inthe starring rotation, I think he'll start
in the miners. I'm missing oneguy. I don't know why I do
this. I show off the topof my head, but it's all right,
it's all right. The bullpen isthere, and and if Saddler comes
back then he can he could addto that. But there there have been
several guys they've picked up, andI do believe they're one year wonders out
(22:49):
of the pens. Steck and Ryderwas one of them. I don't think
anybody had the plan that he wasgoing to repeat that. But then you've
had the Sea Walds success, starySson, uh, Eric Swatson, Yeah,
he ended up having a couple ofgood years and he's still pitching well
for Toronto right now. So theyknow what they're doing. I mean they
do. Maybe you don't think theyknow what they're doing and anything else,
(23:11):
but they know what they're doing inthis general area. And to have recognized
Santos circled and thought to themselves,well it take to get him, let's
ask. Yeah. I thought itwas a really clever move and I'm really
excited about him bey on this team. I am too. I think definitely
add take some pressure off the Munosand Brash which we talked about, can
(23:33):
really really help them, I think, to get better. And then if
you add in Santos is just talentwise, that's going to make the bullpen
better too. So that takes uskind of to an overall outlook on the
team, and a couple of daysago, Fancrafts, the kind of well
renowned analytics issue website for lots ofplayers and teams, came out with their
(23:57):
playoff in World Series odds, andthe Mariners, to some surprise, were
the fourth shock most right exactly,fourth most likely team in the American League
to make the playoffs and the fifthmost likely team overall to win the World
(24:17):
Series, which is pretty nuts tothink about, especially after coming off the
heels of last year and then thepr fun that came after that. Describe
definitely. So, I mean,it's pretty crazy to think that they still
are by one of the most crediblesources of how good a baseball team is
(24:41):
going to be. They they rankedthem pretty high. So I'm wondering if
you think that's too high. Uh, you know what your thoughts were on
you know where they should be andthen both both for playoffs and World Series.
Yeah, well I have a lotof thoughts. Okay, Number one,
I do think it's a little high. They're ahead of the Orioles.
(25:03):
Okay, now that and this wasafter the Corbyn Burns trade, right like
the Orioles when Grayson Rodriguez becomes astar this year, and they have Corbyn
Burns and they, by the way, the guys you saw in the Orioles
last year, that's not all theyhave. The more they have more coming
and the guys that just got asip of coffee, well they're going to
play expanded roles the cowsers and thecursed Dads and uh. And they've got
(25:27):
other guys on the way. SoI think I think they're higher than what
they should be because of the injuryconcerns that you have with a lot of
the new faces that have been broughtto the offense, they're gonna need They're
gonna need those guys to come through, not all of them, but the
(25:48):
majority of them to come through.So I do believe it's a little high.
But I think the shock and allthey really anders the anger that comes
out of somebody that calls themselves aMariner fan over how dare a publication say
this team's good. I can't reallywrap my head around that. I mean,
(26:11):
we really are in a world ofI told you so. If that's
if that's your driving for it,you can't even be happy that other people
gifted people people that do this fora living. This isn't you know,
This isn't just your local talk showhost. These are guys that, for
a living breakdown baseball and run itthrough math. This isn't even just eyeballing
(26:36):
it. This isn't about a bunchof old kooks, you know, sitting
up there, old scouts ninety yearsold telling you he he looks good.
No, these are people that analyzethe numbers, and I would think you
would be encouraged if they told you, yes, that this team is better
than anyone realizes to be angry aboutit. Really, I don't get it.
(26:59):
Yeah, I don't get it.And so it stems from this,
and we talked about this on theradio show, and you stop me whenever
you want, But it stems fromthis. Anders anybody that was locked in
on the thought this team sucks.Your premise was flawed from the beginning.
(27:19):
Okay, yeah, they never suckedlast year. No it didn't. They
played poorly under the stretches and theygrossly underachieved, but the team did not
suck. Those same people that werelike, this team sucks, get Jerry
out of here. When they didmiss the playoffs, and by the way,
they were in first place in thelast week of the regular season and
(27:44):
then played horribly against the damn Rangersand cost themselves a shot at the division.
Yes, not just making the playoffs, but the division. So your
premise was flawed. Therefore you cannotachieve an accurate result because the moment that
they missed the playoffs, I toldyou they sucked. No, they didn't
(28:08):
suck. Teams that missed the playoffsby a game don't suck. They're not
great. And and you know,but the Arizona Diamondbacks finished four games lower
in the standings than the Mariners andended up in the World Series. So
did they really suck? No,Okay, they got into the playoffs,
(28:30):
they got hot, they made itto the World Series. It's about getting
into the dance. This team fellone game short of making a playoffs,
two games short of winning their division, against a team that won the World
Series and a team that dominated themduring the regular season, the Astros.
And so if you operated under thepremise that this team sucks and there's nothing
(28:55):
they can do in the off seasonthat is going to change my mind besides
kto whatever, yeah, right,besides spend money, then you've operated under
the wrong guys for a year now, so I'm not surprised that baseball people
(29:15):
think the Mariners are going to begood this year. I think the Mariners
are going to be good this year. They missed the playoffs. They missed
the playoffs by one game and grosslyunderachieved. So that means they had good
talent a year ago and didn't getthe job done. So now let's fast
forward to the spring. This isthe best starting rotation, arguably in the
(29:37):
game. This is going to beone of the better bullpens. With the
addition of Santos in the game,they have one of the best young rising
superstars in the game, and theyhave also created a more balanced, deeper
lineup. I think they are overratingthem. Go ahead and quote me on
(29:59):
that. I don't think they're asgood as the fifth best chance to win
the World Series this year, eventhough if they get in with that pitching,
they're very dangerous and it's one ofthe reasons why fans rated them that
highly. But I mean, thereare some flaws to this team, but
a team I give you that descriptionbest pitching in baseball and an improved offense
(30:23):
from a team that missed the playoffsby one game. No one should be
shocked or stunned that people are predictingthem to be a playoff team this year.
Of course they're a playoff team onpaper. But they were a playoff
team on paper last year and cameup short and they failed. That's a
failure. Yes, the players failed, the front office failed, ownership failed,
(30:45):
because the goal was to get intothe playoffs and they missed. Yeah,
all right, but this year,same goal. This should be a
playoff team, and once they getinto the playoffs, because of the pitching,
they should be ultra dangerous. It'sthe same thing, even though the
lineup looks completely different. Yeah,I actually I have a little bit different
(31:06):
viewpoint on this. I actually thinkthey're rated correctly. Oh yeah, I
think. Yeah, just kind ofwhat we talked about in the beginning of
this episode, where like, ifyou have that elite pitching, this offense
matches up with that better, it'sgonna be more. You don't have to,
you know, go through super hotstreaks with your offense in order to
score runs. Maybe they're going tostart manufacturing runs. God forbid, you
(31:29):
start stealing a little bit with anyoneother than Julio. I don't know.
But I just think the frustration atleast from me the people that I talked
to, and I feel like I'min different circles of fans than you are.
Yeah, and the frustration comes frombecause the team doesn't suck, because
(31:52):
we are in a place where weshould be good. Why aren't we taking
it over the top so finishing,Yeah, exactly. So I think your
a thousand, right, Yeah,so it it doesn't seem like maybe we
still haven't done that, but thisis a more better, bigger step in
the right direction this team going intothis year than I feel like last year,
where they kind of just yeah,they got Tao after a really good
(32:15):
twenty twenty two and a good playoffshowing too, where I think most people
had a lot of optimism going intolast year. They kind of just banked
on that and hoped it would workagain, everything would work the same way.
So this year they're like, Okay, you know what, we're not
going to go about that same thing. We're gonna make our team better in
some ways. And maybe we don'thave the payroll to necessarily just go and
(32:36):
spend money and add to what wehave, but we're gonna, you know,
improve in different aspects of the game. Keep that elite pitching, the
core that we have of the superstarin Julio. The you know, JP
hopefully has another step forward. CalCan just be one of the best catchers
in the game. I still believehe has more upside to get to.
Yeah. So I think this honestly, this team and for the World Series
(33:00):
odds. We talked about the playoffs. Just overall World Series odds. The
only teams the Mariners are behind arethe Astros, the Dodgers, the Yankees,
and the Race. Yeah Braves,excuse me, Yeah, sorry,
not the Race. The Rays areright behind the Mariners. So those are
four really good baseball teams. Yes, especially since you know, maybe the
(33:21):
Yankees are a little overrated. Ithink you and I both agree on that.
But they're always going to have thatpizazz to their name. And yeah,
yeah, so I love Sodo.Yeah so they add Sodo and that
suddenly takes them from mediocre to Theywere bad last year. They were worse
than the Mariners last Yeah, bylike a large margin. Uh huh So
yeah, so were the Mets.Yes, and all they're like by fourteen
(33:42):
eighteen games or something like that.Yeah, so, I mean I don't
think this is an incorrect rating,but I don't. I mean, I
do understand where the frustration lied lastyear. And if fans don't have the
optimism that they had going into lastyear because of what has been shown the
past, you know, four orfive years of this this team, it
just seems like they they are allergicto getting over the top. And I
(34:06):
think, well, there have beenmoves this offseason that are starting to fly
in the face of that a littlebit. Agree they haven't fallen in love
with every single one of their prospectswith I thought that they were in danger
of doing that. And maybe that'sjustin Hollander kind of wrestling away some of
the control from Jerry, but Ithink that they as an organization were afraid
(34:27):
to part with any of their prospects, and that's a dangerous place to be
in. So they've made a couplemoves to try and win now. And
I'll look, I mean, we'renever going to know the result of this,
but I mean, just think aboutthe Texas Rangers last year won the
World Series and they still only finishedahead of this team by two games.
Yeah, and going into the lastweek, we were ahead of them.
(34:49):
Exactly. Yeah, and their offense. Almost every single player, including the
top guys. Yeah, O hada career here, Corey Seeger had a
career here, had the best yearof his career. Marcus Simeon I think
had a better one in Toronto.Uh maybe even in Oakland. So maybe
it wasn't his best, but itwas still on par. I mean,
it was still talking about mister Consistency'sseven more player. Garcia had his best
(35:13):
year, yep Heim had his bestyear. Carver uh yeah, uh one
of them. Tavares had been lost, he had the best year of his
career, and the Carter and thereand so you have a well then that
then they get Evan Carter exactly whenthey needed it, when they were starting
to sputter. They call up EvanCarter and he's like the best player on
their team. He was, okayout of their best player in the playoffs,
(35:36):
and they're pitching, which was badall season long and still is by
the way. It started to breakdown. They get into the playoffs and
then all of a sudden it's astrength and every one of their bullpen guys
is playing out of their mind.Yeah, okay, they're good. They're
contender. But let's flip the otherside. I'm telling you, if any
one of these things happens, theMariners make the playoffs. And yet they're
(36:00):
people out there that think they stunka year ago. Ty Franz has an
average season, they make the playoffs. Colton Wong isn't the worst place.
He could even have been a badpoint. He could have been a zero
war player and the Marrions would havemade the playoffs. If he was just
a zero war player, a replacementplayer, they make the playoffs. If
you're I think I'm crazy for this, but I'm just spitting through the roster
(36:21):
right now. Tom Murphy doesn't gethurt for the rest of the season the
way that he was hitting, Imean, go back and look at his
numbers, how he was crushing thebaseball. And he doesn't get hurt,
they probably make the playoffs. Yeah, you know, so you don't trade
Seawold. You make the playoffs becauseof not because of Seawold, but because
(36:44):
of what we talked about earlier.Because Munjos doesn't have to be overtax in
the month. If you add aguy at the trading deadline and not subtract
from it, you make the playoffs, you don't get off to a horrible
start that you got to dig outof for the first two months you make
the play Yeah, Julio Rodriguez,the best player on the team, doesn't
hit so poorly with runners at secondand third all season long. I mean,
(37:07):
it's just you can just go onand on and on and on.
But there's there's a few I'll pushback a little bit on that because there's
a few instances where you could saythat about the opposite end. If Kellenick
doesn't have a crazy month of Apriland half month of May, then the
Mariners are probably two or three gamesworse. If JP Crawford doesn't take a
massive step forward, which I don'tthink most saw coming, by the way,
(37:30):
that's a that's a few games rightthere. If Julio doesn't go hit
like four fifty in the month ofAugust, well everybody was hitting, then
yeah, it's true. Then thenyou're if you don't go on a franchise
record month of August, what wasit, twenty games? Okay, but
I still think the team overall underachieved. Yeah, no, I agree.
(37:52):
I'm not saying that Tao struck outthirty times more than he did the
Pies. I just think it's it'snot fully correct to say that everything went
wrong and if one thing went right, the Mariners went to make the playoffs.
I think it's it's a combination ofboth. Probably more on the negative
side, I'll take that. ButI think if you put the on the
scales, yeah, the Mariners arein there. So this is actually a
(38:14):
good way to look at it,because in the twenty twenty two season,
I think most went right. Almosteverything that you did was a positive.
The only negative I can think ofwas Jesse Winker not being as good of
a player as you expected of him. But Gino was way overachieved in twenty
twenty two. Your bullpen, you'restarting five, stayed healthy the entire season.
(38:35):
That's a huge thing. Your bullpenwas above what most expected it to
be. Julio on his rookie yearis better than most expected him to be.
There's a lot of cases where thebest case scenario happened. So I
think if one hundred percent is everythinggoes right, zero percent is no things
go right, and twenty twenty twoyere at probably ninety to ninety five percent.
(38:57):
I think last year you're in theforty maybe thirty percent, where like
most things go wrong, a fewthings go right. Of all the volatility
options in baseball, which there area lot, you know, you I
wish, and I think this iswhere a lot of the frustration from the
fans towards the front office kind ofcomes from. You should be able to
build a baseball team to where theyare a playoff team, even when you
(39:22):
slightly underachieve, so like last year. Yeah, yeah, so I understand
that, no, this team doesnot suck, but they still should have
the ability to They should have tradeat the deadline to improve exactly, And
that would have been the exact movethat you're talking. Gonna have positives,
you're gonna have negatives, You're gonnahave overachievers, you're gonna have underachievers.
(39:44):
But I would state that the Rangershad a lot more over it they did
underachievers, and the Mariners had alot more underachievers than over Itch. And
there's the difference in in the inthe season. So long way of saying
that, when I see the Fangraftstory come out, yes I'm not surprised.
(40:07):
I mean I know, slightly maybe, And the other thing is I've
got them projected as a playoff teamwho's very dangerous getting if they get into
the playoffs. Totally, and Ithink most people do. And if you
don't, all right, that's fine. I'm not going to tell you how
to fan, but you're not goingto tell me how to analyze. And
I think that my analysis represents whatthe national guys are saying about this baseball
(40:32):
team, and there is talent andit should make the playoffs this year.
Yeah, I completely agree. Andthe other thing to think about, we
talked about the zero to one hundred. I think in previous years that range
is so much bigger than it isthis year. The low end of your
team, if nothing goes right,I still think is probably eighty games winning
(40:55):
a five hundred team. That's thelow end, like if everything goes wrong.
And I think this, even thoughmaybe the ceiling isn't as high,
you probably aren't going to be onehundred win baseball team. They don't look
like a hundred win team to makefor sure, but they look like a
team that you know it's gonna happen. Less of a range of uh,
you know, if nothing goes rightversus everything goes right, it's gonna be
(41:15):
much more of a consistent baseball team, and I think easier for fans to
follow instead of go through the upsand the downs of the season, where
like, Okay, we have agood idea of what this baseball team is.
I don't think last year anyone hadan idea of what that how good
that team was, because for solong of the so much of the year,
it was like, this team doesn'tlook good, and then August they
(41:36):
look like, oh my god,they're the best team in baseball, They're
gonna win the World Series. Andthen and then last ten games of the
season, what are we doing?So I don't think it's gonna be like
that for this year. I reallydon't. Ten game window, I put
it at eighty four to ninety four. Eighty four low, ninety four high,
I agree, agree, Okay,yeah, so I think that's and
that's a good thing. I don't. Yeah, I think that's a good
(41:59):
range for your aiming for, especiallywith payroll limitations and average about eighty nine,
which would put them as the sameteam they've been for the last three
years. Yeah. So even thoughthis is probably a similar result team as
the last couple of years, Istill think the range is lower which is
(42:20):
a good thing. So yeah,I mean that's where I think I agree
with the fangrafts. I if theyget in the playoffs, they're a dangerous
team with that pitching. I stillthink I've mentioned this before. Hitting actually
plays better during the regular season.I think if you have a good offense
and average pitching versus an average offenseand good pitching, the offensive team is
(42:42):
going to have a better regular season. But then when you get to the
postseason, that's when the pitching becomesa huge factor. So that's where I
think the Mariners just need to getin and then they can beat anyone.
Well a little more consistency, yeah, not getting off to the bad start,
not having the terrible stretches of offensivelackluster performances. You're going to have
(43:02):
a pitching staff that's going to beable to repeat some really good outings this
year. And that's why they structuredit the way that they did. They
are looking to simply put the ballin play more often, and theoretically that
will result in more runs. Yeah, and if you can, you know,
you're right. JP probably won't haveas good a season as he did
(43:23):
a year ago, but I expectCal's going to have a better one.
Yep. I think Ty has tohave a better one, and I think
Julio's going to have a better one. Yeah, And Sean, it's crazy
to think how much better that guycan get. Well, and that's just
it. I mean, he's gettingready to enter his age twenty three season,
his third full year of Major Leaguebaseball. We talked about this a
(43:46):
little bit on the radio show.As good as he's been, he can
be a lot better. Yeah,there's parts of his game that he can
improve on. He's gone two yearsin a row where he hasn't even hit
till June, right, and soa little different approach the beginning of the
year, gets some numbers going earlyon, and not beat yourself up over
(44:08):
having failed your team in big situations, and who knows what he's capable of.
Mike Petriello, another analytics guy,does the MLB Network countdown with oh
what's his name? Oh gosh,the king of analytics? Well, can
(44:29):
I think Brian Kenny? So hedoes it with Brian Kenny, and so
everybody on the panel took Aaron Judgeas the number one center fielder. Petriello
took Julio okay, and was howcould you pick Julio. Well, just
I think he's better, well rounded. He does everything well. He also
plays better defense, He's younger andhas a chance to stay healthier than what
(44:53):
Judge does. But also, youdon't do that if you don't think that
he's ready to put up the superstarnumbers. We all recognize Julio as a
superstar, but he's still not puttingup superstar numbers. He's putting up all
star numbers through two years of hisof his career, and that's put him
in the top seven and MVP votingeach of the last two years. But
(45:16):
Mike Trout's third full season, Imean we're talking one hundred plus points more
on the ops who they had aneight eighteen ops good good, not great,
Right, Mike Trout was putting upnine to sixty by his third year
in the league, So he's gota lot of room of improvement. He
(45:37):
still has not put up superstar numbers, but they're coming, yeah, and
there's a chance they could come thisyear. Yeah. And I struggle to
really compare Julio to Mike Trout,like, because that is one player to
be compared to. But if youlook at you know how the first couple
of years have gone. Uh,it's pretty mirroring of Mike Trout's career,
(45:57):
and I this is where like bankingon him being as good as Mike Troud
is one of the best center fieldwas fielders to ever play. The game
is tough for someone at the ageof twenty three to have that expectation and
if you're not good, the teamis not going to be good. But
a I think he can handle it. She's shown that his personality and even
after last year, after having whata seven and a half war season or
(46:21):
something like that, oh maybe eveneight war he was fourth in MVP voting,
All Star, Silver Slogger, allthat fun stuff. He was He
was quoted by saying he was frustratedand he felt he wasn't good last year,
and that he has been working inthe batting cages and working on his
game, like all offseason, notgoing out, not going on vacation like
(46:44):
a lot of players do at thistime of the year. He's been working
at his game, which I thinktells you a lot about you know,
his personality and how the expectations hehas for himself and the fact that he
thinks he can be that guy.He thinks he can be the Mike Trout
of this team, which is prettycrazy to think about. Now, let's
(47:04):
make sure we do the non MicTrout thing and make sure we get into
the postseason more often than once.Well, yeah, no doubt. And
look, I mean, great isthe most overused word in our industry.
It's rarely achieved, and yet itis so you know, grossly administered when
(47:27):
talking about athletes. I agree,greatness requires great ability, and then that
person has to pursue greatness greatly,Okay, And so it all starts with
the ability. And he has theability to be great, and I think
he has the mentality to be greatand if he does, and I think
he should have come off of lastseason and said, look at all those
(47:52):
times I stranded runners. Yeah,look at that month of April. But
so many players at the age oftwo twenty two, after having back to
back eight hundred plus ops seasons,would be like, damn, I'm good,
like you know, like I'm good. I'm one of the best players
in baseball. Well, you gotpaid one of the best players in baseball.
You got slapped right on the stadium. You are the face of the
(48:14):
franchise and I think he can handleit, and I think he is going
to take more strides and maybe wedon't get up to forty five fifty homers
like Aaron Judge. Yes, butI defense, I think I certainly expect
something around nine hundred. Yeah.I agree on an ops this year,
and that's going to require about thirtyfive to forty Yeah, And so I
(48:37):
don't need him to steal as muchif he doesn't want to steal as much.
Trout's numbers dwindled, of course,he's got it easier now. It's
easier to steal bases at this point, but more consistency putting the ball in
play, particularly with the runners inscoring position. He's definitely got an opportunity
to take his game to another level. There was another level or two still
(48:58):
that he can reach because I Ithink he's a superstar and he's not yet
put up superstar numbers. I agree, and we both agree that he is
and he will eventually put up thosenumbers. It's it's just I hate banking
on that, and like usually whenyou do have, like are putting that
much expectations on a player for yourteam to be good, and for someone
(49:21):
so young, it rarely works out. But like we said, if there's
anyone that can handle it, it'shim. So I really really hope that
comes through. I just wish wecould put a couple more pieces around him
to you know, get him someprotection, which it seems like we've done
this year to where he can thrivea little bit more and be put in
better situations. And he's not gettingyou know, Pitcher's best stuff, and
(49:44):
they're pitching around him all the time. It's just all it's all a numbers
game. So well, Polanco's jobscut out for him. Yeah, and
look when you look at this teamand you do recognize the holes. Like
I said earlier in the podcast,this isn't the finished product. Now,
a roster, your star arting theseason with. And so as long as
you get off to the good start, and as long as you stay in
(50:05):
the race and you're not constantly likeare we are we? Is this ore
here? You know, asking thatquestion. You get in the race early,
stay in the race, get tothe trading deadline, and then you
get to do the fun stuff likeall right, where are we week?
And where do we need to improve? This third base situation is not acceptable.
(50:27):
Hanniger's down with an injury. Again, we knew corner outfield was a
concern going into the season, Sowho's available corner? Then you get to
make the adjustments to your I don'tknow who said that. Those kind of
was in my headset. I look, I'm expecting a little bit of a
bounce back from Okay, but it'sprobably not going to be adequate Freddy Freeman.
(50:53):
Yeah, but I am expecting alittle bit of a bounce back.
And look at us. We're aless than a week away from pictures and
com man. I can hear thecleats on the concrete right now. Oh,
birds chirping. Yeah. I gottamake it down to Arizona with you
guys one of these times. Wow. Yeah, fun. We're trying to
(51:14):
get Ashley down this year, sowe just got to expand the operation by
one person. Let's do it everyyear. Yep, it is blast.
It is a blast. I lookforward to it every year, and and
it'll be a different it honestly willbe a different kind of spring training coverage
for us. Yeah, because we'regoing to have to. It's not been
a good off season from a PRstandpoint. We got to ask some tough
(51:36):
questions of guys like Jerry Depoto andScott's service. We just had Justin on,
so I'll probably do a little morelighthearted one with him. Yeah,
that's fun. But talking to calabout the future and hopefully we get Julio
on talk about whether or not hefeels the organizations doing what it can to
surround him with talent. Yeah,you know, those those are probably going
to be something like the one ofthe more difficult spring trainings, more difficult
(52:01):
questions that we're going to bring tothe table we have to, and yet
I still have the same expectation.I think it's a playoff team on paper.
I agree. All right, that'lldo it for us. Thanks for
joining us. We appreciate it.We'll have one more episode next week before
spring training coverage does begin, somake sure you're checking us out right here
(52:23):
where you find you your podcast,and of course listen from six to six
point thirty every day Sports Radio ninetythree point three KJRFM for anders Hurst.
My name is Chuck pal Thanks forlistening to Stove
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