Luke Arkins Joins as we Wrap Up Another Off Season

Luke Arkins, author of Mariners Consigliere joins the show to talk about the Mariners off season: how confident to be in the Mariners staying healthy, the 3B position, if the team added enough offense, some predictions for the season, the Ohtani situation, and much more.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Stove. What a kind of nameis that. Welcome to another edition,
not just another edition of Stove,the final edition, Oh of Stove.
That's right, it's our off seasonpodcast, right well, the regular season
starts in a few days, andso Anders and I we assemble one more

(00:23):
time to put this off season inperspective and also get you ready for the
start of the year. And we'vebrought in a ringer. Oh yeah,
we did. We got brought inthe big guns. That's right, a
little extra help to break this down. Somebody the both Andrews and I follow
on Twitter admire from Afar, likehis baseball knowledge, and he's not a

(00:45):
dick. That's a that's a good, that's a good. Yeah. I
think that's a great explanation for whatwe did today. Like you know,
he can actually offer some opinion,strong opinions without bull dozing others. And
so with that we welcome to Stovefor the first time ever, the consiglieri

(01:06):
himself, did I pronounce it theright way? Close? Close? Luke
Arkins is with us right here onStove. How you doing, man?
Hey, great to be here.I don't know about the Dick Park,
but I'll try. I'll try tolive up to that. So Luke writes
a Mariner's newsletter, which is freeMariner's Consigliary. Uh and uh and what

(01:30):
was the You had some website name, what was it? It's Luke Arkins.
Luke Arkins dot substack dot com.There you go, Luke Arkins dot
substack dot com. There you go. All right, so you just use
that you can read Luke stuff.Uh, it's good stuff, you guys,
come from a little bit of ananalytical perspective, but doesn't go too

(01:53):
far with it. Uh. Andyou can follow him on Twitter as well
at Luke Underscore Arkans. So it'sgood to have you a part of this.
Hey, it's great to be here. Thanks for bringing me in here
for the last one, last special. Yeah. Yeah, well you know,
you know what, we'll do itagain next year, the whole stove.
Yeah. So it's not the lastone. It's just the last one
of twenty that's right, just thelast one in twenty twenty four. Yeah.

(02:14):
So, yes, Andrews, thisis we've got Mariner stuff. We
want to kind of recap the wholeoff season. We kind of want to
look forward to the regular season,the three of us together, but it
is stove. There's other off seasonstuff going on, absolutely, so of
course the big news, especially locallyhere with you know, his ties and

(02:34):
everything, mister Blake Snell signed withthe San Francisco Giants. So I want
to get actually both of you guys'sthoughts, because there's a lot of Mariners,
you know, fans, you know, so called analysts that we're saying,
oh, he should come to Seattle. He wants to be in Seattle.
So how with the contract that hesigned in San Francisco, would you
have wanted him to sign that exactsame one in Seattle knowing the financial restrictions

(02:59):
that this has. No, Okay, I'd rather they spend the money on
the position players on the lineup.Yeah, they already have enough starting well
I shouldn't they have enough starting pitching, but they have enough to start the
season with, And I'd prefer theyspend money on the lineup, which they
you know, it looks pretty goodright now, but I'd certainly like to
see him invest some more on thatbefore they went out and got a starting

(03:22):
pitching. Yeah. I mean,if this was, if this is an
offensive player and he wants to playin Seattle and he's willing to take a
little bit less. I mean,we really had a big story here to
deal with. I mean, wewould have been talking about this every day.
Yeah, absolutely, But the factthat they're so loaded and they're starting
rotation, I mean, I thinkwhen they traded Robbie Ray, it felt

(03:46):
like a firm commitment to Miller andWoo And so I've just operated under the
impression that Snell's not even a factorand the Mariners offseason anymore. They are
committed to these five starting pitchers,with Hancock being your emergent being your sixth,
and then Luke's right, You're probablygonna need more starting pitching as the

(04:06):
season goes on. But if I'mgonna drop thirty million a season on a
player, it's not gonna be anotherstarting pitcher. To what you and I
Anders have already discussed is what webelieve the best starting rotation in the sport.
Yeah, and Justin Hollander has afamous saying, you have starting pitching
until you don't, So I dosomewhat subscribe to that same theory. But

(04:30):
if there's anything on this team thatdoesn't need to be upgraded, it's the
starting pitching, right, So theonly thing that I kind of winsat a
little bit is how it's there's notmuch risk involved. If it's a two
year, sixty two million dollar deal, it's not this ten year deal that
you're giving him, and you're gonnabe hamstrung from the back end of it.

(04:51):
But and like it's you never knowwhat's gonna happen. Brian Wo's had
a very extensive injury history. Theyreally overworked him last year considering how much
he had pitched before that, Andyou never know what's gonna happen with Bryce
Mailer. I know you have thosethose six options, which are very six,
very good options, but it wouldhave been nice to have a proven

(05:14):
cy, young winger winner, alocal guy who wanted to be here.
But I'm kind of with you guyson this one. I probably would rather
spend that money elsewhere. Not thatwe're saying we have that money, but
well that's the other part. Yeah, I mean, let's be honest.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I think I think the three people
in this room have kind of cometo grips with the fact that they're just
not going to spend this kind ofmoney, at least not this offseason.

(05:39):
They've made that pretty clear. SoI don't I think Snell the hometown discount.
Snell would have had to give bigtime, it would be that would
have been staggering. So I don'teven know if Luke did, they were
ever in the running on this,I don't think so. And let's face
it, Scott Boris as his agent. If you really wanted to take a

(06:00):
hometown discount, would Scott Boris beyour agent? No? I mean take
Pete Alonzo with the Mets. Sohe just signed up with Boris in the
offseason now, so perhaps in thelong run he stays with the Mets,
but the likelihood that he works outa contract with the Mets during this season
to stay there past this year ispretty low because he took he signed up

(06:25):
with Scott Boris, That's what youget. I do think they may have
kicked the tires like early in theoffseason, you know, because then if
you make that big, bold move, what then can we do with our
pitching? Right? I'm telling you, there was like a threshold moment where
as soon as they went over theRobbie Ray for Mitch hanneger Hill, then
I knew the Snell thing was animpossibility. And maybe we're going to be

(06:48):
glad that they did. And that'sthe thing about Miller and Wu. I
mean, you think about how theywere rushed, but they were actually rushed
to the majors a year ago andstill perform that well. I mean,
for stretches of time. Miller whenhe first burst onto the scene was incredible,
and then Wu had stretches of beingincredible, and they had their hiccups.

(07:10):
There's no question about it. Butyou're right, the injury history of
Wu doesn't go away. But I'mmore excited about Luke like experience under their
belt, full off season of preparation, full camp, knowing what is expected
of them, Pete Woodworth, monitoringeverything that they do. The upside of

(07:31):
these two guys, I think,I don't know if we can even put
a number on it right now.Yeah, I don't know if you can
really put a number on it.I know WU, there's some of his
stats look really good. His issuewas he just didn't pitch a lot of
innings. You know, the outingswere shorter and whatnot. But yeah,
I like they're so cheaply, youknow, at the end of the day,

(07:57):
Yeah, they're just so cheap.That's important unfortunately with the Mariners.
But they Yeah, both those guys, I think you can see more out
of them. I think they're gonnabetter against left handed pitching this year,
and that's really important to what theydo. That's gonna be the big one,
I think, especially for Brian Wu, because that was his big kind
of Achilles heal last year as gettinglefties out. So I really want to
see you kind of yeah, yeah, yeah, I want I want to

(08:18):
see them both kind of take thatnext step and I'll have a lot more
coment. Well, that's why Millercreated a new pitch this offseason specifically for
that, where Wu's reaction was,no, I want to work on just
the things that I do. Ido want to get your opinion on something
else. This is on my throughouton the radio show earlier this week.
I think and the players are furious, I mean furious over what has happened

(08:41):
this offseason. They want heads toroll, right. I guess a billion
dollars fuel were spent. Scott Boriseven confessed after the Snell at the Snell
press conference that there were ten organizations, not just the Mariners, there were
ten organizations in the sport that justtold them we're not adding, we're subtracting
from our payroll this offseason. Sobecause of the television deals, there was

(09:03):
a lot of tightening of the pursestrings. But you know, the National
Football League gets away with having asalary cap. It is a built in
excuse that fans don't ever question.Baseball fans are all angry. Whether you're
a Yankee fan, a Mariner fan, a Cardinal fan, it doesn't matter.

(09:26):
They're all angry that their team doesn'tspend enough. Well, I think
this Blake Snell, There's two acouple different conversations here, but the first
one I want to bring up toyou is I think the Blake Snell thing
could become the future. I thinkorganizations are going to say, there is
no way I'm giving a ten yearcontract to another starting pitcher. I mean,

(09:50):
Garrett Cole is probably gonna miss.I mean, he might come back
from this injury. That's a tenyear contract that they gave him. He
could, he's gonna miss two fullyears potentially eighty million dollars that the Yankees
are just flushing down the toilet,plus what they flushed down the toilet with
Carlos Rodin already look at the topten starting pitchers in Major League Baseball salary

(10:11):
wise, there is one that haslived up to his contract. Well,
I guess Cole has to this point. Cole certainly has this point. But
Zach Wheeler is the only one thathas lived up to what they're paying Patrick
Corbin, you know, I mean, Jose Burrios. I mean, I
think Luke Anders. I think thatyou're going to see a lot more of

(10:37):
this, especially with pitchers. TheNFL, they do it with players because
it's too high risk of an injury, right, So we don't give guaranteed
contracts in the National Football League.There's too much injury risk. Have we
gotten to that point with pitchers now? There's too much injury risk to invest
seven, eight, ten year dealsof guaranteed money? I think so.
I think you look at again backto the Mets and with in Erlander,

(11:01):
Max Shuzer. You know, Iknow they're later in their career, but
there they paid them a lot ofmoney for a short period of time because
the risk that goes with injuries andwhatnot. Now, Cole, I think
that was a good signing by theYankees. I mean, they've got a
lot out of them. He's stillgot time to come back. But look
at Jacob Degram with the Rangers,right, I mean that, I mean

(11:22):
that is a risky deal, youknow. And I guess if you win
the World Series with him once oryou get to the World Series, it's
worth it. But they got therewith that, didn't win the World Series
with him? Yeah, technically yeahthrough May. What do you think Anders,
Yeah, I just I just reallythink the future. I mean,

(11:43):
nobody, I don't care if you'rea billionaire millionaire or if you're making nine
fifty an hour, yeah, youknow, slinging coffee. I don't care
what your position in life is.Nobody wants to just flush money down the
toilet. I don't think there's aproblem with hitters. I don't think there's
a problem with everyday players. Butthe way that Baseball and I don't think

(12:05):
they colluded. I think that's justmaking smarter baseball decisions going forward. And
Blake Snell was somebody that nobody eventrusted to pitch six innings, right,
and now we're going to trust himwith a seven year, two hundred and
fifty million dollar contract. Baseball saidno. If they can hold their ground
on this, I think future contractsfor baseball pitchers are going to be three

(12:28):
years a guy of this stature hadhe not waited to the very end.
It's three years, one hundred andten million, yeah, you know,
and so forty million per year foran ACE, but only over a two
to three year span. As logicalas that all sounds, yes, but
we're forgetting like kind of a big, big, big pit part of this

(12:50):
is probably the second most powerful personin the sport will not like this,
after the commissioner, mister Scott Boris. He did him. If you neuter
him, he got neutered. Thisyear they proved that you don't get to
determine what we pay in this sport, right, let him do that in
the past a long time. Yeah, and this year, I mean he
still has guys out there. JordanMontgomery still doesn't have a deal. J

(13:13):
D. Martinez still doesn't have adeal. He still has guys out there.
Luke, I think this was agreat step toward neutering the you know,
the pit bull in the neighborhood.And it certainly helped, as you
said about the TV issue, becausethere's you just need that one owner to
overpay, but most of the richerteams are pulling back this year other than

(13:35):
the Dodgers. Yeah, so yeah. I you mentioned earlier also about you
know Snell and how the matter haschecked in on him early and early.
You know, there's no way theywould have gotten anything out of him now
later. Yeah, that deal kindof looks good, the one he signed
with the Tears, Yeah, itsounds good now or sort of, but
that was never going to be whatwas offered early. You know. You

(13:58):
know, he's looking for a longterm deal with a lot of dollars,
and this is sort of his fallbackposition, trying to say, face,
get his player some money, andif he has a good year, he's
gonna he's gonna walk after it.If he's heard, he's gonna stick around.
Man. Well I hope though,that he greets a market that's like,
Okay, he've earned. He showedus that you can do it again.
So here's a three year contract worthone hundred and twenty million dollars.

(14:22):
That's what picture contracts should be inthe future. I bring on one other
thing, and I was kind ofheading down this road anyway. I think
baseball's worst enemy, pr wise,is its salary cap. And it's because
of those things that I mentioned absolutelyevery single fan base is angry at their
front office, their ownership group becausethey don't spend enough money. And we

(14:43):
certainly know that here, and there'san argument here. No, I mean,
I'm not glossing over that there.They Mariners have historically been cheap,
and what they pulled this offseason Ithink is is awful. But nonetheless,
I players associate will never go forthis. But for the popularity of the
sport, NFL does not have todeal with everybody saying they're cheap and I'm

(15:09):
not going to spend money on thatproduct anymore. Even though Baseball spends more
money than the National Football League onits players and on its product, it
would It'll never happen, but itwould behoove the sport if they introduced the
salary cap. I'm not sure.I'm not sure if I and revenue sharing
and revenue sharing, yeah, yeah, I guess if you follow the NFL

(15:31):
model more closely, that would makesense. They're not hurting for popularity.
Luke, that is that right,you think, yeah, yeah, But
you know, if you look atyou know, you'll go over the last
couple of years when the Rangers startedspending and the pottery started spending, people
are like, why in the mannerspending? But my thing with owners is
there are owners who will They willgo all in for about a year or

(15:54):
two, and then they they pullback or they stop. And I'm not
defending the Mariners. Demanders should spendmore money. They certainly should invest more
in their bench and their supporting players. Whether they should go after the big
fish or not, that's another debate. But when you look at, you
know, the pot rates. Now, of course their owner passed away,

(16:15):
so that's sort of a special circumstance. But the good Artie moreno, like
he's willing to go in on acouple of big players, and now he
doesn't want to go over the luxurytax threshold. And now the Rangers are
pulling back a little. At leastthey're sort of holding holding, you know.
Uh So, Yeah, I don'tknow. It's the whole salary thing
and the salary cap. I'm notsure whether the Pittsburgh Pirates are Oakland A's

(16:38):
or soon to be Las Vegas A's, are ever going to want to spend
to a certain right. You know, will there be a floor on the
spending or you know a cap?Is there a floor, Yeah, a
cap a floor and revenue sharing.And so it is more of like the
NFL model. I mean, Imean, think about it. If you
went to your favorite restaurant, youknow, once a week, and every

(17:02):
time you went there like it's overpriced, it's not worth it, and all
you're selling their bibble heads, youwouldn't keep going back to that restaurant,
right, And and so that's whatunfortunately baseball has right now. Now they
figured out that baseball fans, eventhe complainers, will go eat the pizza

(17:26):
no matter what, no matter what. But nonetheless, it's still from a
pr perspective, it's hard to growyour sport, right, every one of
your fans is angry at their team. Right. So the one thing that
I actually think would be a determiningfactor in that is how the bigger teams
would react to a revenue sharing model, because they're the ones that, you

(17:47):
know, we're willing to go spendmoney, We're willing to go make our
team better and try to win theWorld Series every year. You know,
the Padres, the Mets, theYankees, the Red Sox, all of
them, but even a couple ofthose have been kind of dialing it back
a little bit lately. But howhow would they feel with sharing a lot
of their revenues that they know thatthe Yankees and Dodgers have fans all around

(18:10):
the world. How about the Cowboysfeel about it? How did the Giants
feel about it? Yeah, II don't know, Cowboys, I could
see you. But it just doesn'tseem like there's as big of a gap
between the big names in the inthe football world and the smaller teams versus
in baseball. Like there's a hugegap in like fandom and revenue in like

(18:32):
the market obviously is the same,but it just feels so much different.
But it does it feel so muchdifferent because of its setup structure, and
that that's what we've grown accustomed to. That's fair Versus had we known baseball
with a cap with revenue sharing thisentire time, would it not start feeling
more similar to the National Football League. I just don't think it's great for

(18:55):
PR right have not your entire tohave your entire fan base that won't tune
into a national game angry at thelocal team because they don't spend enough money.
Yeah, because it's not just here, No, it's not, it's
ever I mean I'm driving in theother day listening to a Yankee fan complain
that that's all Blake Snell got signedfor in San Francisco. I am so

(19:18):
tired of having a cheap owner.Yeah, you didn't just trade for one
so too in the off season oranything. Yeah, we have pitching holes.
You're right, you have pitching holes. Yeah, because you've got a
three hundred and seventy five million dollarsstarter who might be out for two years.
Yeah, and a two hundred andseventy five million dollar starter who may
never pitch for you the way thatyou signed him to pitch. So just

(19:41):
something, just food for thought outhere on the last episode of Stove,
No, I'm with you. Ithink there's definitely a thought in that.
And pr wise, which is kindof the original reason you brought it up.
I think that that makes a wholelot of sense. So I'm wondering
how that will ever work out consideringthe MLBPA. Yeah and the owner are
just not very good friends. We'lljust put it that way. It'll never

(20:03):
happen. The player association is toostrong. It will never happen. Yeah,
Well, they're dealing with a littlebit of an issue, right now
because one of their biggest stars isgoing through a little bit of a controversy
with Shoji Otani just firing his interpreterfor quote unquote massive theft to bet on

(20:25):
sports, supposedly and has since comeout that you know, he never bet
on baseball, but what if hedid. There's a lot, so many
layers to this. I just wantto get you guys instant reaction. We'll
start with Luke, what do youthink about the Otani situation? Well,
the breaking news is usually not thewhole score, right, and that is
probably what's going to happen here,and is when the Feds start to play

(20:48):
out their case and we start tolearn more. I think we're gonna,
hopefully we're not going to find outthat the interpreter was the middleman on some
gambling. Now, whether it's onbaseball or not, that's that's really the
the line of death there for uh, for Otani. If obviously, if
he gambled on baseball indirectly or whatever, he's he's he's never gonna play.
But mb anymore, he's gonna begone. It's horrifying. Yeah, I

(21:12):
mean it's just horrifying. And becausethere's no coming off of that one.
I mean, you can cover itup. I'm not saying anybody's ever done
that the NBA. I'm never sayingthat it never happened to a superstar Michael
mill Orton j But if he getsthe hand caught in the cookie jar,
Rob Manford has no choice your band. Yeah, I mean, Pete Rose

(21:37):
got banned, but he was aforty forty year old bench player who was
managing at the time. That's awhole different ballgame to root Pete Carroll.
Pete Carroll, Pete Rose out ofthe sport when he's at the peak of
his career and one of the oneof the faces of the entire time just

(21:57):
signed a massive contract to Shoe isthe face of this sport right now and
its future. And for I mean, I'm I'm currently presently sitting in this
room with you terrified. Yeah.And I you know, face value.
I think show he seems like areal sweetheart. Yeah. And it doesn't

(22:18):
seem like anything that my show HeyOtani would do, not my show Hey
Otani. He's not going to gambleand rack up four point five million dollars
in gambling. But the fact thathe has a connection to this and it's
really hard to believe that he wouldnot know that his interpreter slash friend has

(22:40):
stolen four point five million dollars fromhim. It's really concerning. I'm worried.
I am worried that showy Otani ismore involved than what we see on
the surface. Uh. And that'sterrible for this sport. Yeah, I
mean just god awful, and especiallyconsidering you know, his reputation too.

(23:02):
Like you said, he's just kindof seems like a super nice, sweetheart
guy, awesome at the game.But what if he is involved? What
does that mean for say, it'ssay it's just a oh I knew about
it, but I was just tryingto cover up for you for so long.
What like, is he still done? Is he if he wasn't the
one actually betting on the sports,but he was just trying to cover up

(23:23):
for his friend? Or I betI think he's gonna be fine if that
is the If that's the determination,Okay, he he's just way too charitable
with his awful friends. Yeah,then then he gets a pass if he
is directly if if they are hisbets bets, yeah, he's done.

(23:45):
Yeah, and there's no getting aroundit. And the sport will survive,
right, even shoe Otani. There'sno one person bigger than the sport.
What if it isn't baseball, whatif it's other things, other sports,
does it make any difference. Idon't know specifically what the policy is.
I know that baseball it's there,like their number one rule, it's the
one that you cannot violate. Youdon't want any kind of gambling associated with

(24:10):
the sport, even though you canbet right now on draft cams. And
and probably we are going to seea policy change, not betting on baseball,
but we probably will see a policychange for baseball coming in the future.
But they're certainly not out ahead ofthis, Luke, I mean,
this could be devastating. Was thisillegal gambling? Illegal gambling League California?

(24:33):
Yeah, so it's different. It'snot that he was betting legally. Yeah
so yeah. I mean, I'mwith you, Chuck. I don't know.
I would hate to see the guyscuttle away from Major League Baseball because
of this, But it's it doesn'tIt just doesn't feel like it's a simple
story of he's just paying a guy'sdebts. No, yeah, it doesn't.

(24:57):
And if he is, can webe friends show. Eh. Yeah,
ah, shoot, chow a Yeah, I went out and bought a
new house. Can you spot mea little bit there? Did you just
pay for it? Give me mywhole career? Yeah? Right, it's
a lot less than four and ahalf million dollars. Yeah, say you

(25:18):
that. So one more angle Iwant to take on this if it does
come out that he is at faultfor this, Do the Dodgers have an
angle to avoid the contract? Idon't. I don't know that I would
think so. Yeah. Again,this is such a big issue in baseball.
It's like their number one rule.Everybody knows about this. Then there

(25:42):
probably is literature in there that getsrid of it. I don't know that
for a fact, But you know, obviously, either that or they just
push it to the years twenty fiftyto twenty sixty, which they did already.
Maybe maybe they'll be allowed. Allright, you're not going to be
forgiven this debt, but you canpay him off in the year three thousand

(26:04):
to three ten oh as a asa foreign player if he were indicted by
and convicted in this country, right, can he? I don't know,
Yeah, I don't know the answerto that question. I think you're right.
I think you're on the settling andthat would probably be the path for
the Dodgers to avoid the contract.Yeah. No, I think you're right.

(26:26):
I think I think you're dead onon that. Well, hopefully,
absolutely hopefully, Please don't be true. Please just be a really charitable,
naive friend, and please keep hittingthe baseball and please keep pitching, and
please be an ambassador to the sport. Okay, please, Yeah, one

(26:48):
more thing about the MLBPA here.It did come out that there has been
some some issues between the players andthe MLBPA president. I don't know the
whole story on this. I'm wonderingif you guys know anything more about this
and your initial reaction. Does thishave to do with the lack of signings
from Boris clients or you know whatelse are we looking at here with the
potential outing of the MLBPA pressure,Well, the players have to blame somebody.

(27:11):
Yeah, and so they want theirPlayers Association, even though it's the
best union in the world, Yeah, to be harder on owner that don't
allow this to happen. Right,I think it's nonsense, Okay, frankly,
but it's so serious that Tony Clark'sjob's in trouble right as of this

(27:33):
moment, so they might have anew association leader soon, right, And
I know the JD. Davis situationwhere he was released basically because he didn't
go to arbitration, correct, Yeah, that is that is nonsense. Yeah.
Also, we don't know all theinner politics, you know. I
know there's been some accusations that Borisis too influential with the leadership of the

(27:57):
union, but that could be justother jealous agents who are trying to get
more influence within the union. Uh, yeah, I don't see how see
hear how reasonable Luke is Yeah,yeah, I know, right, thinks
about different perspectives where like other thingsdoesn't just fly off the handle from Luke

(28:22):
Arkins is with us our Mariners consigliarynewsletter. You got to check that out.
You can follow on on Twitter atLuke Underscore Arkans A R K I
N S. All Right, Ithink we've hashed out all the national stuff.
Let's do it. This is ourfinal Mariners postseason offseason podcasts here Andrews.
So let's put this sucker in perspective. Yeah, let's do it.

(28:44):
Let's bring it back into the locallimelight. Here. You mentioned before we
kind of got started here that there'sbeen kind of four burning questions here with
the Mariners, and I I wantto kind of get your guys's verdict on,
you know, how we feel goinginto the season here as we're what
just one week away exactly today actuallyfrom opening Days, so we got the

(29:07):
first thing I want to know isdoes this team have enough offense? It
seems to me like the depth andjust the floor of the team is going
to be better this year than intwenty twenty three, and there will be
less volatility between you know, kindof going up and down and going hot
streets and cold streaks. I wantto know what your guys' thoughts. Does
this team have the offense with thestrength of course being at starting pitching to

(29:32):
make the playoffs again this year?I believe so, Okay, yes,
I think their lineup would be longer. Yeah, I think they have more
well rounded hitters. I did athing during the offseason where I looked at
how many players with four hundred playedappearances on the Mariners had above average on
base percentage over excuse me, aboveaverage slugging percentage. Right, they had

(29:53):
three Jerk callenakeh JP Crawford and JulioKelnick is gone. But you know,
when you look at the the Astros, the Rangers, they had five.
There's some teams that had eight braves, the Rays, the Dodgers had six,
the Orioles had five. Yep.So that's to me, that's kind

(30:15):
of the mark of a long ofa long lineup. And now you look
at so you have you can expectCrawford, Rodriguez, Polanco, Garb maybe
rarely. Ye, he did itlast year with the Rays. One of
the eight on the Rays. Youalso have uh maybe Urius, yeah,
ten Zone maybe yeah, and uhand they and Hanniger and Raleigh are not

(30:37):
those guys, but they have theslug so they're they're also contributors to it.
So and ty France, I forgotty France. I think ty France
will be one of those guys thisyear. I think that's a reasonable expectation.
He may not hit twenty five orthirty home runs, but I think
he can at least be an averageguy as far as power this year,
which is probably all they need.So yeah, JP says, watch watch

(31:00):
out for ty Frantz this year.I'm telling you, I'm telling you that's
a quote from JP Crawford right there. I said this repeatedly so much I
think my nose started bleeding from repeatingit too frequently during the season. I
thought the pitching last year was sogood that if this can just be a
top ten offense and runs scored,then this team's going to make the playoffs,

(31:22):
and then your pitching can really takehold from there. They finished twelve
right, twenty runs off the pace, but that was the difference. That
was the difference between making the playoffsand not making the playoffs. Those twenty
runs. You missed the playoffs byone game, you missed the division by
two games. You held tie breakersover most of the teams that you were
in the running with, So forthem to again, I think the pitching

(31:47):
is going to be better. Geta top ten offense. That's it.
You don't have to be as goodas the Braves. You don't have to
be as good as the Dodgers.You're not going to be. You have
to be as good as the Oriolesfor Goa's sake, But with your pitching,
you are top ten offense. Notonly should you make the playoffs,
you should make it with ease andto Luke's point, I think that this
is a deeper lineup. I thinkthey have achieved the goal of fewer strikeouts.

(32:12):
They're still strikeout guys in this lineup, fewer strikeouts significantly fewer than what
you had a year ago. AndI think it's a deeper team organizationally as
well going into this year. SoI don't suspect nearly the frustrating year of
did we just strand two more runnerswith less than two outs and another inning?

(32:37):
Throwing your remote at the television.It was disgustingly frustrating last year.
I don't think we're going to feelthat, and to me, that's going
to be the difference. I thinkwe had a better three hole hitter,
yeah, than what we had ayear ago. I think we have a
better eight hole hitter, seven holehitter than what we had a year ago.
And I don't even care what orderyou put them in. I think

(33:00):
that this is going to be abetter offensive team. To answer your question,
I agree it's weird because I actuallythink Tioscar Hernandez, between the additions
this year and the additions last year, I think tai Oscar would probably be
the most talented of all of thoseplayers offensively. But I still think because
of what you just said that theway that this team yeah yeah, and

(33:22):
the way that this team is puttogether, I really think that just getting
a couple more runs, you don'tneed to you know, blow teams out
of the water like the Rangers did, right. You just need to take
advantage of your runner on third baseof less than two out situations. And
I really like Polanco for that.He's always been a guy that puts the

(33:43):
ball in play a switch hitter.The one thing, and I guess that
brings me to my next question,is the one thing that is questionable with
whether this team is good enough offensivelyas if they can stay healthy. Do
you have the confidence that Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver or he belong go even
Ty Frantz has been a little bangedup last couple of years, even though

(34:04):
he's played through it a little bit. You know, there's a lot of
question marks health wise on this team. Do you guys think that you know,
we'll have enough to patch it upand put things together, and if
not, you have confidence that they'regoing to be able to go out and
actually improve If they end up havingmore holes than they suspected, Well,
I sure hope. So, Imean it's the great unknown, and then
when you have a history with yourlineup of injuries, you need to be

(34:30):
prepared for that. I do thinkthey are deeper. Do they have a
replacement for Mitch Garver if he goesdown? Maybe not man for man.
Do they have that? But tome it is the number one concern,
even more so than a banged upbullpen here in the spring. If they're
healthy, as we just discussed thisas a better offense, yes, they

(34:52):
have to stay healthy. I havevery little faith that Mitch Haniger can play
more than one hundred games. I'vejust seen too much evidence of that.
I have more faith that Polonko's injurieswere due to over regression and not being
patient with his rehab, which Ithink is something that you can't and you
can administer. And then Garver,uh luke, I just I think this.

(35:15):
I mean he told us flat outat spring training. I said,
your injury history, why are yougoing to stay healthy? And he pretty
much said, because I'm not goingto catch, And he traced every single
one of his injuries back to catching. So the idea that he can be
a primary DH maybe play a couplegames at first five behind the plate gives

(35:38):
us I think one hundred and thirtygames with Mitch Garver bang, I'll take
that. Yeah, I actually wentback and looked at all his injuries and
you could basically, I think onewas a running the basis he's like sprained
his knee slide in the second orsomething like that, and he got COVID.
Everything else is basically in a lowerback, dign high ankle, sprain,

(35:59):
a concussion and things like that.That's you know, the thing with
Mitch Haniger, you go back totwenty twenty one where he played a lot
of games. It's because he playeda lot of DH. So now you
have the two Mitches, and reallyboth of those guys should be the DH.
But you're gonna put Mitch out inright field, and so there is
a risk like that if he runson the wall, it just it just

(36:21):
gets hurt, you know, forone reason or another. And so yeah,
I can't say I'm confident in thoseguys. I'm hopeful, So,
but hope is not a course ofaction as long as there's I mean,
you know you're gonna have injuries.They'll probably be all of them all four
of them. Yeah, the newcomerswill be on the i L at one
point. As long as you're avoidingthat three that three month long injury or

(36:45):
multiple guys out at the exact sametime for a spell of time, as
long as you can avoid that,and you can't you don't know if you
can, but as long as youcan avoid that, then I think it
can be managed right. And theydo have a better bench, they have
better depth, they've raised the floor. Finally, you know between Luke Rayley

(37:07):
or Dominic ken zone and whether betweenRojas and Urius. You also have Kate
Marlow. There's just a bunch ofyoung guys that Ryan Bliss, guys like
that that. Yeah, you don'tnecessarily want to have them on the opening
day roster, but if they couldfill in for two weeks you probably can
get by. So I think they'remuch better than that. You don't have

(37:29):
Tommy Listella, who's supposed to besort of this utility guy who can't throw.
Who's your desert, right, Imean he had an arm injury the
entire spring training and they still brokecamp with him. And you can say,
well, that's because Dylan Moore wason the IL well then you didn't
have enough depth to start with.But I think so now the question,
you know, Sam Haggerty probably doesn'tmake the opening day roster right now,

(37:52):
right, so now look at howmuch more depth do you have. And
it's not because you just have betterplayers. It's not because you're carrying you
know, you have three guys hurt, you're just carrying whoever as you're twenty
six. Man, I just feela lot better about the overall roster.
You know, all these guys arethere's certainly a concern with them, but
anybody can get hurt. I mean, I don't want to jinx it,

(38:15):
but Julio could get hurt on openingday and miss two months. Yeah,
he gets hit with a pitch orsomething like that, and it's not happening.
Sure, No, I mean it'sfunny because the other thing I wanted
to bring up really quick was,you know, as we mentioned with Mitch
Garver and is catching cal rawly.You know, as as much of a
trooper has he has been the lastcouple of years, he's he's had a

(38:37):
little a couple of issues. Hesaid he was catching with like some sort
of broken hand I think two yearsago, and like there are a lot
of risks that maybe you wouldn't thinkabout. And if something like that happens,
then you're pushing Mitch Garver into catchand then what if he goes down
because he's catching more, And likethere's a lot of like plywood situations here
where if something breaks, then thewhole thing crashing down. Well, Zavala

(39:01):
is your protection. Yeah, okayagainst Garver catching too much. Now Raley
gets hurt, then you just havean issue of Raleigh being h because that's
your best I mean, that's oneof your best players that you have on
the team. I am very fascinatedwith Domin Dominic Campbell too, and the
spring that he's having and how they'regoing to use him during Opening Day because

(39:24):
he's not just earned. I meanthere was talk in spring training like,
okay, I see three left handedoutfielders. They all bring different things to
the table. They're all fringe majorleaguers. Only one of them can make
this roster, Canzone, Marlow andTremmell. Who's going to win it?
Well? Can Zone's not only wonthat with a an Anthony Edwards slam dunk

(39:47):
kind of fashion. But now I'msitting here wondering Okay, how much time
can you give hanneger Off? Howmany days rest can you give him?
Because you can what Rayleian left andyou can put canzone. It's going to
be a true vice versa. Yeah, I don't Is it going to be
a platoon? I don't know.I don't, you know. So that's

(40:10):
something I'm very intrigued about as weget closer to opening day. I am
too, And his hit tool hasreally improved. It seems like in uh
in spring training, the dude lookslike he put in the work. Yeah,
and I hate this to hate theoh best shape in your life stories,
but like in some cases, itreally makes a big difference. And
I think that's one of them where, especially if he can kind of improve

(40:30):
his defense a little bit, he'sgoing to give this team so much more
value. So yeah, I'm interestedto see what happens there as well.
Yeah, and let's face it,you know, if you're the front office,
you you would like some of theseguys who you traded you received for
Paul sea Wall to succeed. Seriously, let's face it, there's a little
bit of ego there. You wantat least one of these guys to be
a real contributor. So you cansay, see, this is why we

(40:52):
traded Seawall because we got this guy. It has a chance to be a
bonanza trade. Yeah, for butit still doesn't change the fact that in
the moment you needed to prioritize makingthe playoffs. And so I still didn't
like it in the moment. Isaid it in the moment. If this
is an off season trade, Ilove it. Yeah, but you just
you did week in your team becausethose three guys are not even contributing to

(41:16):
what the Diamondbacks are doing right now, and so you're giving up a contributor
and somebody that you clearly needed inSeptember, we saw, yeh in exchange
for three pieces of the future.I just don't agree with that philosophy at
the trading deadline. Yeah, Imean, hopefully that changes this year,

(41:36):
and you know, I don't knowif it's gonna take up. I must
just be in ten to fifteen gamesover five hundred, and it's no doubt
that you added, Yeah, well, why do we do that? How
about we actually start the season notten games under five How about that?
That would be fun. How abouthitting one baseball hard before May? Okay,
how about that. Yeah, let'slet's not get a little ahead of

(41:57):
ourselves here. A couple other questionshere. The third question we have is
do you think me and Chuck havebeen adamant that this is the best starting
pitching maybe the best pitching staff overallin baseball, but it definitely the starting
pitching is the best rotation in baseball? Do you agree with that, Luke?

(42:17):
And how much of an upside dothey really have? Can they get
even better than they were last yearwhen they arguably already were the best starting
pitching in baseball. I'd say they'rethe best staff, and I think they
can get better. I don't knowabout Castile. I think maybe what we
see from Castillo is still really good. I mean, he had his moments

(42:37):
last year with the long ball,but yes, But I mean, I
think it's fair to say that Kirbyis still on the ascent. I think
Gilbert is too, not as much, maybe not as much. I'm not
as sure what his ceiling is.And and then Miller and wu are clearly
I think they're going to be betterthis year. How much better is to

(42:58):
be determined, But from I understandthe Marinag's really like what they see out
of Woo. So that's a greatwhen when when Wu is your fifth guy
and this is really really good andthey have Emerson Hancock in their hip pocket,
although I have some doubts about hisdurability too. He's only pitched over
one hundred inas once and that waslast year and then he got hurt.

(43:20):
But he's exceptional too. That's reallygood. So yeah, I could see
them as as the best if theycan stay healthy. Well, who else
has three top ten Vegas Odds AmericanLeague cy young contenders and what are the
teams bringing that to the table.I'm trying to think. That was what
I was trying to think of theother days, Like what other team even

(43:43):
rivals the Mariners? Well maybe Atlantawith Strider and Freed. Yeah, and
who would be the third Sale?Maybe I don't trust Sale either, But
just as as your base, itgot that plus, as Luke pointed out,
you've still got two of those threethat are still showing they still got
room above them and their ceiling.I think Kirby is going to be the

(44:06):
best pitcher on this team this year, and so you know, to have
Luis Castillo's suddenly become your second bestpitcher in your rotation and then still be
able to lean on logan three.And as we mentioned earlier in the podcast,
Miller, you forget Miller and Wugot rushed to the big leagues and
still performed admirably a year ago.Now that they know they belong, now

(44:30):
that they've had the workload, nowthat Miller's working on an extra pitch and
hit ninety eight in spring, youknow, on a fairly consistent basis.
I mean, what how much moreimprovement are you going to get out of
them? I think it is thebest starting rotation in the sport, and
those that don't recognize it, I'mnot sure you know baseball. Yeah,

(44:52):
I mean they were the only teamthat had three starters with over one hundred
and ninety innings last year. Yeah, and that's pretty impressive. That's very
impressive. That makes life easier onthe bullpen big time. And even with
the bullpen health question marks, we'regoing to go back to health one more
time. You still think this fullstaff is the best staff in baseball.

(45:14):
Obviously we got I'm a little worriedabout the bullpen with the injuries. Yeah,
I don't think we're out of thewoods with Brash, I don't know
why this Santos things lingering, butthis is months now that they've been dealing
with this. I do trust they'llfind two or three pieces out of their
bullpen that they do every year thatwill be competitive. But I don't know.

(45:39):
Without I would say, yeah,they're in the conversation. Okay,
I think starting pitching is definitely thebest road station the whole staff. I'll
at least put him in the conversation. I would agree with that. Yeah.
So if the season starts today,Brash, k Are and Santos will

(45:59):
be on it. So who's yourback? Three? Oh I had something
else? Okay, go ahead,Yes, sorry, I was building towards
something something and then you completely disruptedme. Shut it away. It is
your first time with us, Luke. We got to read your mannerisms.
Yeah. Yeah, they only theyonly had three relievers on the il per

(46:20):
per S bow track. They hadthree relievers total last year on the io,
and they're going to start the seasonwith three. Yeah. Last year
the average was seven in the league, so three was really good. Yeah,
and they're probably not going to repeatthat this year, obviously. If
that Brash, Santos and Munos,Yes, you know, I love the
pen. I'll figure out the rest. I'm not so convinced about Sarsado being

(46:44):
able to repeat it. I'm notconvinced Spier can repeat what he did a
year ago. But I am convincedthat Pete Woodworth, there are two or
three guys that we haven't got tosee on an everyday basis, that he'll
turn into something decent for this bullpen. He does it every damn year.
Right, He did it with Sorsadoinspired last year. And my back three

(47:05):
would be Muno's spear and Stanic standfor now. And I agree with you,
Chuck as far as Thesato, butI think the one thing the managers
do well is they find the rightmatchup situation yea to bring out the best
in these guys. And uh,well, it's a three prong attack,
I think for whatever reason, Andyou say, what do you want about

(47:28):
Jerry, he's got an eye forthis. Number two Woodworth's a genius.
And number three I think it's whatScott does best as a manager. I
think he manages. I think HiT'shis greatest strength as a manager is his
managing of a bullpen. I wouldlike to introduce you to a website called
Twitter, which doesn't agree with youMarender's Twitter. It's a brand. Well,

(47:55):
I'm on your side. I justwant to make sure you know that
we are in the minar already onthat one. I think, at least
on that website, I think,well, whenever you blow a lead,
obviously it was the manager's fault.It wasn't a pitcher's fault. Who you
know through the pitch. There aresome downsides to Scott though. I mean

(48:15):
the fact that this team has startedoff slowly for the past what three seasons
now in contending years is a littleconcerning to me, and you know,
it points to like how they're preparing. I don't want to believe anything about
the marine layer or anything like that. I'm done here in that because other

(48:36):
teams have plenty of success hitting herein Seattle. So uh yeah, I
think that's something to really really reallykeep an eye on this year. But
I'm with you. I think thebullpen decisions have been borderline immaculate the past.
I mean, obviously you're going tohave one or two that's like,
oh, you probably should have donethat, And that's a fun fan right
playing the armchair quarterback, But asa general rule. Yeah, sorry to

(48:59):
break this to people there, He'sactually really good at this. Yeah,
absolutely, so, Yeah, I'mwith you on that. The one other
thing I wanted to to bring upwith you guys was the third base position.
And this kind of gets into adeeper conversation for me because you know,
we have Reus and you know Rojasat this point, A, is

(49:22):
it going to be a platoon?B? If not, who's who's going
to kind of take the lead there? Are you confident with that? And
the bigger question I want to bringup with regards to the full team is,
to me, the one big weaknessfrom this team compared to last year's
team is defense, because it seemslike corner outfield, we've really kind of

(49:45):
suffered defensively. Third base definitely withAohenio gone, now there's questions about Polonko's
second base defense. I'm wondering,do you think this can be a concern
or do you guys think that,you know, Perry Hill being Perry Hill
is going to you know, makeeverything good again. So well, let's
go third base first. Let's dothe third base and then kind of make
it a bigger picture. I feltthat this was going to start as a

(50:09):
platoon and Rojas was eventually going totake maybe the full time role. Okay,
I just heard Gary Hill Junior saythis week it's going to start as
a platoon, but Urrius is goingto take the full time job. Interesting,
so whatever, if fine, let'sjust put it this way. I'm

(50:31):
rooting for somebody to take the fulltime job because that means that guy is
hit, is playing well, he'shitting, and he's not abysmal defensively at
third base. So I think itwill start as a platoon. But let's
hope, as Mariner fans, Marinerbroadcasters, and professional journalists that that somebody

(50:52):
does take hold of that position,because that means they're hitting the snot out
of the ball, right. Andwhat also could play into that is of
anybody else in the infield gets hurtout for a while, Rojas can play
around the infield. So that's apossibility. Uh. You know the platoon
thing. You know, I wastelling Chuck before we started that they're these

(51:14):
when you look at these guys,Uh, the platoon splits over the last
two years, three years, they'rebasically the same guy. You know.
Uh, yours has a little morepower, but not a lot more,
they strike out about the same amount. There's really not it's there's really no
case for us tune based on theirtheir hitting. It's just sort of a
convenience that you have these two guysthat you're paying five million, right,

(51:38):
So we need to find a placefor these guys and hope that one of
these guys pans out. As faras the defense, yeah, I don't
you know, Heney it was better, and I don't think anybody's gonna expect
either one of these guys to fillthat in. Yeah, And I don't
want to put too much on PerryHill. It seems unreasonable. I'm with
you, and we've pointed this outin the past. I'm allcerned about this

(52:00):
defense. I think he got weakerin a lot of areas. Yes,
So I don't want to pin everythingjust it's just too it's too convenient to
say, Perry Oll fix it.Yeah, No, who cares put Garvert
third? He'll Perry Oll fix it. That's just too convenient of an answer
that said Gino Suarez was in agood defensive third baseman before a game here,

(52:22):
Ty France at first base? Areyou kidding me? He's built like
this disinfectant wipe dispenser, like thefirst baseman was supposed to be long and
agile, and that's not Ty France. And yet he more than holds his
own over there. Every single personthat's ever a JP Crawford Philadelphia Phillies had

(52:44):
already determined you're not a shortstop,You're a second basement. That was part
of the rub between JP and Philadelphiato begin with. You're you're not a
leadoff hitter, and you're not ashortstop. You're not athletic enough. And
he might not be athletic enough toplay shortstop, but Perry Hill turned him
in to at least for one season, a goal glove defensive shortstops. So
he is excellent at it. Andif he did it for those three guys

(53:07):
and did it in a very shortperiod of time, then maybe he can
do it for Rojas, Arius andPolonko. Yeah, hopefully. And the
thing with Polanco is that he's beenbanged up in the last couple of years,
so we have to give him thebenefit of doubt and once he's healthy
that he'll move around the field alittle better. As far as JP,

(53:27):
you know, I feel like anytimeI mentioned his defense that and I'm the
bad guy. Metrics. Metrics donot like him. Yeah, he does
not move well towards third base.His arm strength is below average. That's
you know, I mean, that'swhat out's above average gives you. It
really tells you because it's all basedon how fast a runner is, how

(53:49):
far the fielder had to go toget the ball, all these things.
It's not anecdotal. If you're tryingto to gauge a guy's defense by what
you're seeing on Root sports, you'reprobably just you don't know where the guy
started when the ball was hit,So how do you know if it was
a good play or not. Ifyou're at the game, you may,
you may. If I had theeye for that, I personally don't.
I you know, it looks likea great play in the outfield because because

(54:12):
the guy took a poor route andthen he died, So that's that's not
a good play. With that said, I'm glad that JP Crawford is on
the Mariners and he's a key partof the manors. Whether he's a long
term shortstop or not, we'll seeabout that. But I do agree with
the defense a little bit concerning youknow, Julio is elite cal Raley is
exceptional. But then you start lookingaround. You know, Mitch Hanneger of

(54:38):
your better defensives, he was soundright, Riley is okay, Ken Zone
is probably the best average hopefully rightright. And actually Rojas was better at
second base then he was. Hewas an above average the short time he's
a Mariner. So yeah, that'sdefinitely concerned, especially for a run prevention

(55:00):
team to be below average in alot of spots. Defensively, that is
a bit of a concern, andthat's been a strength of the Mariners the
past couple of years, is likethey seem to rarely, rarely, rarely
make the big mistake to cost youa game defensively. So that's one of
the reasons why our pitching was soeffective is because they trusted the guys behind
them to make the plays. Soalso the reason what Luke was mentioned about

(55:22):
JP, why Matt Chapman brought alittle more value as a free agency possibility,
because of his range to his leftwould help JP's weakness to his right.
Still, they were at that stagein the free agency process, as
we've already covered, they weren't spendingmoney on crap no, So yeah,

(55:46):
so that kind of kind of wrapsit up for me. I'm with you,
guys. I think the defense,the start, and the health are
like the three things that I'm reallyfocusing on going into this year. Is
if those three things are at leastpassable, I think this team is going
to be really, really good andI think they have a chance to win
the division. Which, yeah,if there's anything else to add, Yeah,

(56:07):
that is a question going into thisoffseason is will they add? Yeah?
Obviously this I mean I think thisroom gives them credit for a very
creative offseason. Yeah, but thatwas out of necessity because ownership obviously tightened
up the purse strings on them.So now you're entering a season in which

(56:29):
I don't think they're one hundred winteam that's going to run away with stuff
in the American League West and beable to put their feet up on the
desk at any point during the season. I mean, there are to me
eight to nine legitimate American League playoffcontenders out there, and I see this
as about an eighty nine to ninetyone win team going into this year.

(56:49):
That doesn't give you a lot ofwiggle room. So are you going to
add? How aggressive are you goingto be if you decide to add,
can't go through another off another tradedeadline like we've gone through two of the
last three years. I think it'sabysmal. I think it's I think it's
it's inexcusable and maybe even unforgivable ifwe go through it a third time in

(57:15):
four years. Lewis Roberts out there, the White Sox have completely rebuilt,
and I realized third base is thebigger hole. But who gives a damn
If you can add a piece likeLewis Robert, they they better, they
better add this year. I don'twant to hear any excuse I agree with
you. I will say. Iknow, looking back to twenty twenty one,

(57:36):
when they traded Kendall grab Right,at least they brought Diego Castillo and
at least they brought something back.They brought Joe Smith back, they brought
something back. In last year whenthey traded Seawald, who did they bring
back Edward Bizardo. You know,there was no other move to sort of
make it seem lateral that they didit. They to me, they took
a step back in a bullpen.I think they really paid for it down

(57:58):
the stretch. I mean, Ithink Muno's certainly. I think he paid
for it in September, and Brashpaid for it because they were relied on
much more than they probably should havebeen, because it's one last guy.
A valuable about it, your bestguy. You traded your best guy,
and you didn't bring anybody in.They'll argue they brought in Rojas at second

(58:20):
base, and but no, I'mwith you one thousand. Well, yeah,
that that kind of wraps up theMariners conversation for me, Luke,
did you have like one more thingyou wanted to bring up about you know
what? The Mariners might end updoing this to kind of get them back
on track here for going to theplayoffs. No, I think that what

(58:42):
they've done in the off season waspretty spectacular considering what they were up against.
I I'm going to pick him towin the division. I think we're
probably going to talk about that ina little while. He exactly. Let's
just for the record, I saythey're gonna win last year and win ninety
five games, right, and youknow it didn't. But I still like

(59:04):
them. I like their starting rotationbetter than the other two teams, and
I'm always going to go with theteam with the best rotation when when everything
else is close. I know theother teams have better offenses. That's fine.
They don't play all their games athome. They have to go on
the road. If you look howthe Rangers played a Tea Mobile Park,
they were pretty they were pretty pedestrianwhen they played here. So they are

(59:27):
a beatable team and the Mayors dohave to play better down there. They
have to play better at some otherstadiums and not just here. But I
I'm very happy with what they did. I'm really torqu at the h the
ownership group. It's just ridiculous howthey just sort of disappeared and they leave
it all to the baseball people totake the hit for it. But it's

(59:50):
really just a lack of resources,which is unacceptable. Yeah. Agree,
I'm totally with you on that.I mean, he started already. It's
perfectransitions. I was gonna get intopredictions next. How do you think this
team finishes? Chuck? Did youmake playoffs? Division? All I care
about is being one of the sixand every time that this not every time,

(01:00:15):
but if you're in you bring thisup. What do you think the
Mariners are going to do? I'mlike, well, I got them around
eighty nine to ninety wins, Soplayoffs, I'm like, yeah, but
not a World Series contender, right, I'm like wrong, Hey, if
you're in the playoffs, you're aWorld Series contender. I mean, so
let's just understand that. Make thesix. I don't care what seed you

(01:00:38):
are. I don't care if youget home field advantage. I don't give
a damn about anything. I don'teven care about winning the division. I
mean, it's a nice thing tohang up on the wall, but it
doesn't do really much for you towin the World Series. Get in the
dance, let this pitching take over, and you have as good a shot
as anyone of winning the World Series. I'm more worried getting into the playoffs.

(01:01:00):
But right now, I say,eighty nine wins it's going to be
enough to get them in this yearbecause I think the competition in the American
League is a little more dispersed.I don't think there's gonna be but White
Sox and Oakland are going to beterrible. So I think they're gonna be
a lot more losses, you know, excue me, wins out there to

(01:01:22):
just spread across a little more evenlyand so I think eighty nine wins is
what I'm projecting right now. Thatgets them in the playoffs and then they
become the most dangerous team on theplanet. Yeah. I have a little
bit different of a thought process withyou about the regular season. I definitely
think that when in the division givesyou like a little bit of a leg

(01:01:44):
up going into the postseason, especiallyconsidering this team's rotation and how much you
can get maybe a couple of daysof rest, and with our health concerns
going into the season, that's probablygonna be a question throughout the whole season
and coming towards the end of ittoo. I just want to see this
team maybe instead of just trying tosqueak in and be one of the six

(01:02:05):
teams as you just mentioned, andif that ends up happening, I'm with
you. I still think that theycan go all the way. I want
to see them like really take thisregular season by storm, the be the
story of MLB right kind of.Oh, this Mariners team's kind of like
ready to go. They're ready tocome into their contending window here. You
know, have the national guys talkabout us a little bit more. I'm

(01:02:25):
not saying that you know you needto go and win one hundred and five
games to do that, but like, go and take this division by by
the scruff of the neck and letthe other guys know that, Hey,
this is this is our contending windownow, Hastros. You guys are done.
Rangers, you won your one WorldSeries. What you guys went for?
Just go take this division away fromthe other two teams and really give
this baseball world and not just thebaseball world, the Seattle sports baseball fan

(01:02:52):
something to get really excited about duringthe summer and then carry that momentum into
the playoffs. And I really wantto see them do that this year,
So I put a little more arestock into winning the division and I still
think they can do that, bythe way, So I'm picking them to
win the AO West this year.How many winsball team? Okay, some
low man, Yeah, all right, as long as they're one of the

(01:03:15):
six. As long as they're oneof the six, that's all I care
about. Yeah, and I thinkHouston is going to win the division again.
But any questions at pitching, wellthat yeah hell yeah, yeah,
there their questions are our offensive questions. Yeah, if they stay healthy there
they can still pitch. Yeah,and their bullpens is going to be better

(01:03:36):
this year. Yeah, then whatit's you know what it was. I
think the Rangers take not a bigstep back, but they're not going to
be the same team as last year. Their offense might be better, yeah,
and this White Langford apparently is readyto hit forty home runs as a
rookie and Evan Carter for a fouryears. Their offense is going to be
better, but they're pitching was amirage last year, especially in the postseason.

(01:04:00):
And yeah, I mean I stillcall I count them among the most
dangerous teams, uh in the AmericanLeague. Love the Twins in the Central
and love Baltimore in Toronto in theEast. Uh, the Yankees are already
falling apart, and I think TampaBay is gonna tumble a little bit this
year. You just can't lose thatmany starting studs pitchers because you blow out

(01:04:20):
everyone's arm in your organization and justcontinue to survive that. And I think
they're going to feel the pinch ofthat this year. I've got the Rays
in the East. You do havethe Rays in the East. Mariners and
their ninety two wins, they alsohave wild Cards are Baltimore, Houston,

(01:04:40):
and Texas. I have the Marinersgoing to the World Series against the Braves,
who win the East. The Cubswent into Central. I guess,
Chuck, you think, so we'reone of us is going to be a
genius, one of us is not. And uh, then the Dodgers in
the way, that's sort of ano brainer. I would say the Phillies,

(01:05:02):
Arizona and I and the Mets.Sort of picked the Mets because that's
my mom's team. There you go. I think this year they still have
they still have the arms to doit, although they could be a team
that if they're not playing well,there's gonna be a there's gonna be a
fire sale with some of their players. I believe Pete Alonzo being one of

(01:05:23):
them, will be gone. Igot Braves, Reds by plenty really take
a step forward. Dodgers. Ithink the Diamondbacks were the real deal.
Padres, Phillies, those are myplayoff teams. I have the Cubs last,
I do, but I think thatdivision is just so bunched up,

(01:05:45):
yeah, that I could see anyteam finishing second and that same team could
finish fifth. Yeah, So Ithink it's really bunched up, but I
do think Cincinnati will separate itself fromYeah yeah, D's in the West,
Twins in the Central. I havea tough time with the East. I
think, like you said, theBlue Jays and Orioles will be kind of

(01:06:05):
battling for the top. I stillthink the Rays will make the wild card
there in the National League, Ido like the Reds by a couple of
games, not by blowing everyone out, as you said, but I still
think the Giants have something to sayfor the Dodgers. That'll be a close
battle towards the end of the season. I could see a twenty twenty one
Giants team that just kind of comesout of nowhere wins one hundred games.

(01:06:26):
I think the Giants spent the bestmoney possibly want an eighty five win team.
Seriously, congratulations, Yeah, besteighty five win team money can buy.
Yeah. Brewers still going to goto the playoffs as they always do
because they're kind of the National LeagueMariners with just pitching everything. And then
kind of lost their two best guysthough they have and Devin Williams isn't going

(01:06:47):
to come back till halfway through theseason. Section they've lost their three best
guys yeah, but I still thinkthey're they're kind of the same situation where
they always seem to find pitchers outof nowhere. And I like the Phillies
to give it Braves a run fortheir money in the East to so uh
yeah, and I think they goto the World Series once again against your

(01:07:10):
Seattle Mariners and the Phillies win though, so unfortunately that did you take Mariners
or Braves? Uh? I didn'tactually the World Series game, I'm gonna
be yeah, okay, why not? Jered Kelnick Jerry Kelnic goes over fifteen
and the three games against the Mariners, the Kelnick Series. Let's bring it

(01:07:31):
on. Uh, well, it'sbeen a great year, and Luke,
thank you very much. Finally,we wanted to get you on all year
long, so glad we got youin here on the final preview episode.
Again it's Luke Arkins Mariners Conciliary Newsletter. Follow him at Luke Underscore Arkins and
that will guide you to all thethings that you need to read that Luke

(01:07:57):
writes. He does a tremendous joband we've been wanting to get him on
the podcast for a while, sothanks for coming in. Hey, thanks,
it's my pleasure. And you canalso google my name and right under
the America's Most Wanted Thing at thetop you can see marriage and some of
the other things I've written. Sothat's fantastic, And and thank you.
Great year. Thank we made alittle bit of a change, a little
transition. Bucky wasn't going to beable to do this as consistently, so

(01:08:21):
I said, why don't you takethe off season off? Uh, And
so we put Anders into the hotseat, and it's been a blest I've
really enjoyed the year with you,uh and can't wait to do it again
next year. I appreciate it.Thank you so much for having me on.
It is called the off season,so we we wanted to give our
resident baseball player the off season.That's true. That makes a good point.

(01:08:42):
Yeah, and now we can turnthe stove off. Yeah, as
sad as that is for me todo because I just love it so much
too, But I also love OpeningDay and one hundred and sixty two games
of Major League base So that's next. So thank you for joining us all
year. We do appreciate it.And Anders and I are kicking around the
idea of a regular season weekly podcast, which we've never tried before, so

(01:09:09):
we might be doing that, sostay tuned. Other than that, you'll
hear us on the radio Sports Radioninety three point three KJR FM, so
for Luke and Anders, my nameis Chuck. Enjoy the season.