Money Monday with Brian James

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Oh, the voices of reason, a voice in the dark, heard.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Daily exactly the things that need to be said.

Speaker 3 (00:06):
Fifty five KRC the Talk Station.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
It's eight oh six here at fifty five kr C
the Talk Station. Very happy Monday to you. Always money
Monday with Brian James, all the financials uh, Brian James
during the program every Monday to talk markets and talk
volatility and talk about four oh one k is. Welcome back,
Brian James. It's always a pleasure to having you on
the program. His microphones off, see if yes it is there?

(00:39):
Yes it was off. There you go.

Speaker 3 (00:41):
I sure, yeah, and I was.

Speaker 4 (00:42):
I was ready to roll, all ready to get our
Monday kicked off and I'm talking to myself. Apologies for
us some technical inaptitude here. Yes, another Monday, another discussion
of volatility and craziness and audio problems.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
Coming off a week of vacation, I feel as though
I'm not firing on all cylinders. I like vacation. It's
like you need a vacation at your vacation, so you know. Anyway,
struggling to scoch myself this morning, but Mike's are on.
It's time to talk money matters. Let's talk about stock
market volatility. I no market genius, am I, Brian. That's

(01:13):
why I have someone managing my you know, my certified
financial planner managing my affairs. I don't want to have
to pay attention to it, but I have some general
understandings and things like that. But I get the impression
that the volatility in the market, and it has been
kind of up and down with all these talks about tariffs.
I just I just get the impression no one really

(01:36):
knows what they're gonna do these tariffs and how we're
gonna be dealing with it, or what is going to
emerge as a consequence of them. Will they stay around?
Will Donald Trump pull the plug on them? Is he
going to negotiate better deals with different countries? Is China
going to hold out? I mean, it's just seems to
me a whole lot of question mark swirling around it,
and that uncertainty of its in and of itself brings

(01:59):
around volatility. I suppose, doesn't it?

Speaker 3 (02:02):
Yeah, it does.

Speaker 4 (02:03):
And I'm looking at what happened last week. My first
comment was going to be it was relatively quiet week,
but then I realized, no, it wasn't.

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Hasn't been quiet week.

Speaker 4 (02:10):
All year long, it's been nothing but chaos because we're
simply finding our way. You know, a quiet week simply
means the market bounced up and down violently, but then
kind of ended where it started, so there was no
you know, kind of week over week impacts. But yeah,
we have reached the stage. We know we're in chaos
right now. We know there's a there's change coming, and
we're we're under We're under a lot of it right now.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
The market absolutely hates that.

Speaker 4 (02:33):
It's not that, you know, we're gonna go over the
cliff and hit the bottom and it's going to be
the end and we're all gonna, you know, live in
caves and buy ammunition and grow corn for the rest
of our lives. It's that's not that's not where we are.
But the market is behaving the way it is because
it simply can't see. We're flailing around in the fog.
The market absolutely hates when it can't predict what's coming.
So therefore, what the market always wants to know. You know,

(02:55):
there are a number of earnings reports, for example, coming
this week from big companies like Verizon, AT and T,
P and G and some of the big names we
are going to be listening. What we're gonna focus on
this week is what are those companies saying in terms
of visibility. Doesn't really matter what they did in the
last quarter. We't care about that anymore. That's that's that's
over and done with. What are they What position are
they going to take over the next several months with

(03:15):
regards to tariffs? So, for example, if Procter and Gamble
manufacture stuff overseas and wants to move it from country
to country, what's the tariff going to be on the
day that that package of stuff arrives in whatever country
it's it's destined for. And we don't know that right
now because that literally changes that you as you just said,
that changes almost day to day anymore. The market absolutely
hates that because it cannot calculate what a successful transaction

(03:38):
should result in terms of profit. Therefore, we have these
violence wings back and forth for this wort.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
The planning is, I mean, the markets, if there's if
you can count on something happening, even if like taxes
are going to increase, you know it's going to happen,
it's gonna be x. They can factor that in and
deal with it because there's some certainty into what's coming
in the future. It may not be as good. Financial
projections may not be as good, but at least they
can have some you know, sound ground upon which to

(04:06):
make these predictions and sort of plan their future. And
right now we're kind of like a ship without a rudder,
it seems.

Speaker 3 (04:13):
Yeah, pretty much.

Speaker 4 (04:14):
And that is there's so much history between when we
can say, okay, we know that P ANDNG, Google, Apple, whatever,
sold x number of units, and they normally have this
kind of a profit profit margin when they do those
kinds of things, So therefore the stocks should move like
this and we can kind of anticipate and that's what
analysts basically get paid to do. But right now that
profit margin is in question because because of all the

(04:37):
tariffs and all those kinds of things, what is the
dream going to be? And so what we're seeing is
it's an interesting divergence. I'm looking at a chart right
now just where everything is so prior to this week,
even the European, Far East and Asian stocks, you know,
which is basically the S and P five hundred of
the rest of the world. Last week they were down

(04:57):
about three four percent for the year, as we're sitting
here right now, Brian Thomas.

Speaker 3 (05:01):
They're up about seven percent for the year.

Speaker 4 (05:04):
Now, compare that with the Nasdaq, which still sits down
about sixteen percent, the S and P five hundreds down
ten and even the DALLA is down eight percent. So
the point of all that is there is volatility, but
that also means there's upside to it. The companies that
are doing the best are the ones that potentially have
an opportunity here. And we've talked about this before, but
there are probably some funds, hopefully some funds in your

(05:25):
portfolio that you haven't been paying attention to in years.
I'm speaking of the international stocks in the emerging markets,
which is which are more like the Brazil, India, China,
those kinds of things. We haven't talked about those countries
in a long long time, but they're all lining up
looking at this opportunity, watching the United States choose to
fight with its customers, and they're looking for opportunities to

(05:47):
create new markets where for those countries there wasn't one before.
And so that's why the market is sensing that, hey,
these companies that maybe weren't as big as players as
they were in the past may now have a great opportunity.
That's why they're up seven percent. So if you have
a properly diversified portfolio, you really shouldn't be getting killed.
If you're down fifteen to twenty percent, then my guess
has been you've been chasing technology for the last fifteen

(06:08):
years and it's coming around to bite you in the
rear end.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
Well, there's I mean, there's opportunity built in a lot
of this, and I mean, depending on where you look.
If you read the Wall Street Journal, we're all going
to die because tariff suck. And that's just the general
impression that they have. But there's been a lot of
sort of bright spots in this that major companies, multi
billion dollar companies are planning on building here and moving

(06:31):
production here. Like for example, there's a terrible situation going
if you haven't read about it, between China and Taiwan,
and it looks like, you know, China's going to invade
any moment, at least it's always seen that way for
the past couple of years. But all the major ship
production is being done in Taiwan. Sounds to me like
going to start bringing chip production here to the United States.
So ultimately we can benefit by this. It's not going

(06:52):
to be immediate. We're gonna have to wait for it
because you just don't create a chip factory overnight. But
if we ultimately, you know, have some domestics apply for
some things that we haven't had for a long time,
isn't that ultimately good for us over the long term.

Speaker 3 (07:06):
Yeah, And that is the hope. And some of that
was rolling forward.

Speaker 4 (07:09):
There are two chip factories southeast of Columbus that are
that are under construction. Unfortunately that hit there recently, that
hit the news hit not too long ago. That Intel,
who was behind that, is coming on some hard times,
partially because of the technology that they provide. Uh that
another chip company a m D has maybe has some

(07:30):
better ideas in that space. And that news hit at
an unfortunate time a couple of maybe a year year
and a half ago where that started to come to light.
And so those two plants are sometimes in question. I
cannot imagine they're going to walk away from them in mothballum,
but they're not as moving forward with as much gusto
as they originally were. But that all came from the
original idea. It originally started with national security. We can't

(07:51):
keep buying chips from overseas, uh, not knowing exactly what
our what our enemies speaking specifically of China are putting
into those chips fluids that they have, and if they
managed to take over Taiwan, like you were just hinting, well,
that's where most of the chips come from anyway, from
Taiwan's semiconductor although some of the plants are here in
the United States as well. But yes, that is definitely
one of the goals. It's not going to happen overnight.

(08:13):
And when we've got interest rates bouncing around, inflation and
tariffs and all that kind of stuff, companies are going
to be hesitant to make such a massive, massive investment
to bring one of these huge plants online in the
United States. If they were turned the first shovel full
of dirt over today, it would probably be three years
before they could start producing something with any kind of regularity.
So we need some clarity here.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
Well, definitely need some clarity, and it doesn't look like
it's going to be coming any times. H We demand
instant answers and instant gratification even in the markets, and
quite awful, we don't get that. We're going to find
out if we should be looking at our four oh
one cas Is this a good buying opportunity notwithstandard of volatility?
And we'll talk about the FED and which direction the
rates are going to go more with Brian James after

(08:58):
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Speaker 3 (10:16):
Fifty five KRC four.

Speaker 1 (10:20):
Eight nineteen I fifty about KRC DE Talk Station Money
Monday with Brian James, Thanks to all with financial loaning
them out for a few segments here every Monday and
pivoting over. We talked about market volatility. I understand why
it's there, but obviously market volatility impacts our four to
oh one K. And something I never do is check
where my four oh one K is at least you know,

(10:40):
with the exception of my twice annual visits with my
financial planner. I mean, I lived through the COVID nineteen downturn.
I saw at one point how much I lost and
lo and behold, if you wait around long enough, it
all comes back and then you end up having more,
which is exactly what happened with me. So I like
to avoid the headache and the heartburn and everything might
go along with it, because you know, until you sell,

(11:03):
you haven't really made or lost, right Brian, So should
we be looking at our four o one k balances?

Speaker 4 (11:10):
Yeah, Well, hopefully you're looking at it and seeing that
it's not as bad as you thought it was going
to be. And the reason I say that is because
hopefully this isn't the first time you've looked at it.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
So if you're doing things the.

Speaker 4 (11:21):
Right way, and you have looked at what your ultimate
goals are and you understand some market history, then hopefully
that decision resulted in a diversified portfolio that owns just
a little bit of everything. Yeah, every four to oh
and k out there has enough where you can build
a set it and forget it type of a portfolio
and do just what Brian Thomas is doing, which is
look at it a couple times a year. It's not

(11:41):
money that you're gonna need tomorrow. If that is the case,
then you already screwed up before four oh one k
is your only source of wealth.

Speaker 3 (11:48):
That's a problem.

Speaker 4 (11:48):
That means you have no cash, you got no oil
in the engine, and that kind of thing. This should
be the money that's out there for at least five, ten,
even fifteen years to help you fight off inflation. And
if you look at any chart, any chart of the
stock market over the last thirty years, then you will
notice it goes one direction. That direction is up. However,
we have our little head fakes every now and then.

(12:09):
I remember when I first started in this industry was
nineteen ninety seven, and the Russian ruble collapsed in ninety eight,
and then we had something called long Term Capital's a
hedge fund that collapsed. I remember thinking, in my youthful stupidity,
oh my gosh, this time it's different. I'm special, I'm
scared now, so now this one counts and the end
it doesn't matter. It's just a reshuffling of the deck

(12:29):
and different leaders will take the move to the forefront.
Shortly after that, we had the huge technology boom. All
of it became a catalyst. Whenever there's some kind of
panic in the market, somebody takes advantage of the opportunity
to drive things further. As we hinted out in the
earlier segment, right now it appears to be the international
stocks are going to take the lead for a while.
So far, that's been the case. If you don't own any,

(12:50):
it's not helping you, and you will feel targeted by
the market.

Speaker 3 (12:53):
Market doesn't care about you.

Speaker 4 (12:55):
It only cares about what it can see forward, and
right now that's not very much.

Speaker 3 (12:59):
So make sure that.

Speaker 4 (13:00):
Your portfolio is at least spread out across these different
things so that as things have been flow, you'll benefit
from it, but you don't take it on the chin
if something completely falls apart.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
Well, and there's you know, conservative investing, and then there's
you know, riskier investing. You know, obviously with risk you're investing.
The idea of getting a bigger return is always there.
You know, every time I meet with financial plan, there's
always that one fund like twenty five percent return. You're like,
damn it, I wish I had put more in there
in that one, because look this one over here only
got me four percent return. How often should we be

(13:32):
adjusting the different funds that we're in or is that
something that we shouldn't be doing? Very often? Does depend
on where we are in our life close to retirement.
What's the story on that?

Speaker 3 (13:42):
Right? Yeah, great question.

Speaker 4 (13:44):
So how often if I shouldn't be in there every
day goof around with it, well, then should I never
look at it?

Speaker 3 (13:48):
Now?

Speaker 4 (13:49):
The answer the answer to that is I'd say maybe
maybe once a year to really get under the hood
and make sure that you have what you need. Generally speaking,
once properly diverse byed, a four to h one K
will usually pretty much stay in balance.

Speaker 3 (14:03):
By the way, four oh one K four oh three B.

Speaker 4 (14:04):
You might have a sep ira whatever, which we're referring
to your employer retirement plan that you were probably putting
money into every week, every two weeks, every month, or
however often you get paid. That inflow, that constant inflow
of cash tends to keep it in balance. If you
balanced it once, you know, a year ago, and you
put a bunch of money in, left it alone, it's
probably still reasonably in bounced. I'm not talking about the

(14:26):
you know, the dollar amount. The dollar amount could actually
be down of course because of where the market is.
But I'm talking about the different sizes of the various
positions you hold in that retirement plan. That constant inflow
from payroll tends to keep the whole thing in balance,
because if something's taking a beating, then it meaning it's
down more than everything else in the portfolio. Well, you've
just bought more shares of it because you have put

(14:47):
the same fixed dollar amount in every pay period as
you've been doing for years. So that tends to again
keep it in bounce. So it shouldn't be too far
out of whack now. On the other hand, if you
notice that it is way out of balance, I would
really be looking under the hood for how did that happen?
And it's not so much about what do I have
to fix right now. It's more about, Okay, let's the
next time we go through a crazy cycle like this,

(15:08):
and granted we're in the middle of this one, but
the next time it comes around, how should I make
some changes now so that I don't hit that roller
coaster later. And it's not about never losing. That's one
of the guarantees that want to give everybody, you know,
as a financial planner with something I guarantee my clients Occasionally,
you're gonna lose money.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
We're gonna lose your money. It's the reality of it.

Speaker 4 (15:24):
My job is to help you navigate through that and
not avoid it, because there's no such thing. So be
prepared for that. Learn your history, and then understand the
levers you need to pull inside your flour one k
to make sure it doesn't sink your ship.

Speaker 1 (15:34):
All right, well, let's pause. We'll bring Brian James back
for one more. We'll talk about FED rates and whether
or not this represents a buying opportunity right now. I
also want to address the subject matter of you know,
having money in bonds was always like the conservative, really
safe place to keep your money, not as high an
interest return as that in stocks. But you know, I'm
wondering where we are relative to the bond market considering

(15:56):
the volatility and all the craziness going on in the world. Pause,
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Speaker 1 (18:35):
It's a thirty fifty five pair CD talk station. Very
Happy Monday to you one more with Brian James doing
that money Monday thing. In terms of buying opportunity, I
would think, you know, if you're investing for the long term,
it's always a buying opportunity where the market's up or
down as long as you get your money invested. So
what's the story now with this volatility? And I guess

(18:56):
leading us to a conversation about which direction the Fed
is going to go with rate? And then my question
about bonds always the safest investment, but is that always
going to be the case. We got all these international
trade disputes going on in China owns a lot of
our debt in the form of bonds, and what if
they quit, you know, buying them.

Speaker 4 (19:13):
Yeah, there are lots of concerns out there, and we
are kind of shuffling the decks in terms of what
we what we view as risky versus not. But to
address your first question, yeah, I'm not a believer at all,
Brian in market timing. And so when we say is
this a buying opportunity? Should I put some of my
cash to work? My first question to that person is
going to be, well, what has your cash been doing?
Have you been sitting on a pile of cash waiting

(19:34):
for for this?

Speaker 3 (19:35):
You know? If so, then yeah, absolutely put it to work.

Speaker 4 (19:37):
But I'd have told you that in December two before
we kind of hit the skits, because again, I don't
believe in market timing at all. You can be right
nine times in a row and be wrong the tenth time.
You go right back to the beginning. So what I
will throw out there, Brian, though, is this can be
just to kind of think a little differently about this
a buying opportunity, yes, but also for some people in
the right situation, it could be a conversion opportunity. And

(20:00):
what I'm getting at there is if you have a
huge pile of money on your pre tax side, your
four oh one K, your iras, the traditional side of
things that has never been taxed before, but is going
to get the daylights kicked out of it by the
time you reach age seventy three to seventy five, depending
on how old you are now. Then this, while the
market is down, can be a great time to go
ahead and take some of that cash and pay taxes

(20:20):
with it, convert your traditional IRA to ROTH, and from
then on, as we recover, from then on, those gains
are going to be tax free. You're going to reduce
your require minimum distributions, You're going to reduce the tax
hit down the road. So on one hand, yeah, when
the market's down, is it a buying opportunity. Yeah, that's
pretty much always the case, because eventually it turns around
goes back up.

Speaker 3 (20:38):
But I think what people need to be.

Speaker 4 (20:39):
Looking at more is not only you know, for buying opportunities,
but can I rearrange my tax situation? How what's in
this opportunity for me to kind of benefit and again
never pay taxes again. There's a lot of moving parts
to that, but I think that's something that this generation
of retirees ought to start to learn more about.

Speaker 1 (20:56):
Is there any limitation to converting to roth? I mean
like financial citations or earnings or anything like that, or
is just something that anybody can do.

Speaker 3 (21:05):
Yeah, that's the great thing about it.

Speaker 4 (21:06):
So what we tend to think about raw of iras
as being somewhat limited because I can only make so
much money to contribute. However, that is not the case
when it comes to converting. A conversion is not a contribution.
Conversion means I'm taking money that is already inside of
an IRA and I'm converting it from the pre tax
side to the raw side. There is no income limit.

(21:28):
The only thing you got to deal with is what
are the taxes that you'll pay. You have to take
that conversion amount added to your other sources income.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
You also want to be careful.

Speaker 4 (21:37):
You know, if you're close to Medicare age, then it
could factor into driving your Medicare premiums a little higher.
But a married couple can get up to two hundred
and ten thousand dollars of income before that's an issue.
Single person one hundred thousand dollars. But if you've got
the ability to do that, it can't even be worth
taking that hit. When you look at the fifteen to
twenty year impact of a decision, like this.

Speaker 1 (21:57):
All right now, pivoting over before we part company to
day Brian James fed interest rates, which were you sensing
the direction are going to go? They're going to remains
the same, go up, go down. Where are we on that?

Speaker 4 (22:08):
So yeah, as of right now, so fed FET Chair
Powell talked last week and said the Federal Reserve is
going to stand down in any rate moves for the
time being again waiting for greater, greater clarity was the
quote that he used. So we've been talking about that
all morning. He's got the same problem that we do.
We simply can't see that far into the future.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
Well, are there any reports coming out and that might
shed some light on which direction they're going to go,
because I think a lot of people are looking for
a little relief in terms of like home mortgage interest rates.

Speaker 4 (22:36):
Right so that that's where we would want to see it.
But unfortunately consumers are still spending. We really haven't, you know,
we're still in the same mode that we were before.
And so right now the Chair Powell is not seeing
a reason to put another cut in place because because
of the clarity, he can't see in the future any
further than we can. And the idea that I believe

(22:58):
underlying all this is his concern that in is going
to come back quickly if we drop interest rates because
we simply seem to have that that that ability still
to run the economy a little faster than it should
be whenever there's an opportunity such as lower interest rates,
and he does not want inflation to come roaring back.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
Uh. You know, despite what the President says, President doesn't
like him a whole lot.

Speaker 4 (23:18):
But it's not going to be very easy for for
Trump to do anything directly with Powell. But at this
point we're kind of in a holding pattern unfortunately.

Speaker 1 (23:25):
Well, and going back to our initial conversation about tariffs
that they may very well have an inflationary impact just
in and of themselves, regardless of you know, simple laws
of supply and demand. If you're going to tear if
something it's going to go up in price, yeah, that
that's you know, we're simply layering more cost onto something.
And you know we we can't view this. We're going
to make these other countries pay these terarffs. Well, that's

(23:46):
just not how it works.

Speaker 4 (23:47):
That's like saying, you know, a landlord is or a
landlord is simply going to eat the increase in property taxes.

Speaker 3 (23:53):
No they're not.

Speaker 4 (23:54):
They're going to increase the rents on their renters. It
all gets passed down to the consumer. That's the difference
between a consumer and a produce. Consumer is at the
bottom of the pile and has to eat whatever the
changes are. Ultimately, now those companies can be hurt one
way or another because they, you know, maybe consumers look
the other way, look for different opportunities. And that goes
back to what we were saying before about international stocks outperforming.

(24:14):
There are countries out there who aren't going through this
and have the capability to produce some of the goods
and services that in the United States are current for
United States consumers are currently going to be affected by
the tariffs. So those companies have a great opportunity in
front of them because they don't have those hurdles.

Speaker 1 (24:30):
Fair enough, Brian James always enjoy our conversations. Very important
and interesting information and I think solid advice as always
like to point that out. Get yourself a financial planner
and take the weight off your own shoulders. Brian James,
We'll look forward to next Monday in an audition of
money Monday have a great week, my friend. All right,
have a good week. We'll talk to you Monday, right

(24:51):
eight thirty six, right now, if you have carecy the
talk stations stick around. A deep look at China's internal challenges.
My next guest, Breitbart's Francis Smart. Tell she's the international editor.
She'll be on next. After I mentioned you know, well,
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(25:43):
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Speaker 3 (26:07):
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