Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Best selling author in both fiction and nonfiction, and I recommend.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Them all these days.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
By the way, with what's going on in the world,
you really got to go by and read twenty thirty four. Anyway,
we have a lot of stuff to talk about, Admiral,
thanks so much for spending time.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And did I get it right this time? With south Com?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I don't want to screw up again because I'll get
demoted or thrown in the brig.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
One hundred percent correct. Easy way to remember it, south Com.
It's everything south of the United States, Latin America, Caribbean,
South America.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
We've got a ton of stuff to talk about.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
I'm going to do this in no particular order, but
I want to start with a couple of your recent articles,
maybe in reverse order. Tell us about the uss berries
motto and what's going on with that.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
Yeah, I commissioned this destroyer as the second captain of
the ship back in the mid nineties around the world,
took her into combat, and the ship's motto from its
commissioning in nineteen ninety two.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
So this is over forty years ago.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Its motto, which is on the crest of the ship,
has always been strength and diversity.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
Now here's an important point.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
When that motto was coined, the diversity referred to the
lethal diversity of the ship. It could shoot down targets
in the air, it could sink submarines under the water,
it could attack ships, it could attack cities with its
land attack missile. So strength and diversity of offensive capability.
So that was quite happily the motto. So I followed
(01:43):
the ship as the second commanding officer. And by the way,
this ship won the award as the top ship in
the Atlantic fleet, not once, not twice, three times.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
It's a storied ship, and so I follow it.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
And I was quite surprised to see on the website
the other day the motto is.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
No longer strength and diversity.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
The motto is now strength and so I think unfortunately
my old ship and its motto got caught up.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
In this dei purge.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
But the diversity involved had nothing to do with racial diversity.
It was about the lethality of the ship in all dimensions.
Speaker 4 (02:24):
I think it's an.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Example of how sometimes policy can run way ahead of
common sense.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
We see a lot of that right now.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
In particular, one quick follow up, just tell us one
if there was I don't know if there's more than
one combat you were involved with on that ship.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
I'll give you three combat or quasi combat operations. The
first mission was an arms embargo around the island of Haiti.
You remember at that time Haiti was going through massive
civil wars. This was in the fall of ninety three.
Then we deployed the ship forward and we were in
combat operations off the coast of the Balkans during the
(03:06):
time of the invasion, but the Serbs of Kosovo, so
this would have been ninety four. And then we were
ordered to steam at maximum speed through the Suez Canal
and up to the Arabian Gulf because Saddam Hussein was
looking for a second bite at the Apple of Kuwait.
(03:27):
So it was the three ring circus of combat or
near combat operations Haiti, the Balkans in the Mediterranean, and
the Arabian Gulf.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
I saw a great picture of you in your article
as a commander. I don't know if you It looked
like maybe you were on the bridge. A little hard
to tell I was.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
I'll tell you where that photo was taken.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
It's so good I can't not do that.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
It was taken in June of ninety four on the
fortieth anniversary of D Day, and the ship was anchored
with it with warships of all the countries that participated
on the beaches of Normandy. We were honored to be
anchored directly across from the Punt to hak the place
(04:10):
where the Rangers climbed, the place where Reagan gave the
iconic speech about the.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
Boys of Punt to' hac.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
These young eighteen year olds, you know, scaled that cliff
in withering German fire and where the spearhead for the invasion.
My ship, the Very was honored to be anchored to
commemorate that fortieth anniversary day.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Now, I've been to multiple military cemeteries. I'm sure you know.
Fort Logan here in the Denver area is very big.
I've been to Arlington, I don't know how many times,
many times, and I have to say I've never quite
had the same feeling as I've had at the American
(04:57):
Military Cemetery in Normandy. And it's not nearly as big
as these other places that I just mentioned, but maybe
the fact that it's essentially overlooking the beach where so
many of these young men and they almost are all men,
but where they died.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It's just a different.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
It was an incredible feeling that I really didn't expect
because I had been to Arlington so many times, in
Fort Logan and so on.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Yeah, these are different.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
These are called the American battlefield cemeteries.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
They're all around the world.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
There are dozens of them, and many, many of our
young men and women in more subsequent combat are buried
in these American battlefield cemeteries. The most beautiful one I've
ever seen is on the north coast of Africa, where
many fell in the initial days of World War two,
(05:52):
in and around Tunis, And it's the old site of Carthage,
and it overlooks from high high bluffs Mediterranean Sea. And
you're right, the one at Normandy is of course utterly iconic.
And if folks want to get a tiny feel for it,
go back and watch the movies Saving Private Ryan, which
(06:13):
opens and closes quite movingly in that cemetery.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
You wrote a piece for Bloomberg that was published I
think a week ago today five signs that the US
end China will go to war. And I do note
that part of the reason the stock market was up
so much yesterday and more today is that the administration
seems to be softening.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Their tone a bit. I don't think they're softening.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
It as much as the market seems to think they
are about China. But I got some concerns and they
were only exacerbated by reading your article, especially in combination
with your novel twenty thirty four, which you note is
a cautionary tale that everybody should go read. Tell us
what some of these warning signs are that have you?
(07:00):
Have you concerned? And maybe also you know from one
to six and a half, really, how concerned are you.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
From one to six and a half. Okay, I'd say
I'm at about a four.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
And if you wanted me to put up percentage on
what are the chances that US China actually go to war,
I'd say it's between five and ten percent, which is
uncomfortably high, because, as I unfold in the novel twenty
thirty four, the year that's the title is the year
twenty thirty four. It's how the US and China stumble
(07:37):
into a war that is a disaster for both countries.
So I think another way to put it ross is
over the last ten twenty years, I think it's the
highest possibility of conflict with China, and by the way.
The conflict could be smaller than a global nuclear exchange.
It could be a conflict over Taiwan most obviously, or
(08:00):
about ownership of the South China Sea that involves the Philippines.
But the chances of some kind of conflict between the
two nations I would put at five to ten percent
right now. What the article does is kind of think
about a dashboard with warning lights on it. So a
couple of the key ones are air intrusions around Taiwan.
(08:24):
Those doubled from about fifteen hundred a year ago to
three thousand in twenty twenty four. So Chinese jets flying
all around Taiwan. That indicator is blinking yellow and going up.
Another one is the one you mentioned a moment ago,
trade and tariffs. When you have a tariff of one
(08:44):
hundred and fifty percent one hundred and twenty five percent
back and forth, at least until today, we didn't see
any indication of anybody back and down. I hope you're
right that the administration will soften its tone by high
High tariffs are another blinking yellow light. And don't forget
(09:06):
when was the last time two great powers went to
war in the Pacific. Well, that would be nineteen forty
one the Empire of Japan and the United States of America.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
What was the root cause of that war?
Speaker 3 (09:20):
It was trade tariffs, sanctions the United States effectively choking
off the Japanese economy. So that's a second indicator to
really focus on. And I'll give you a third one
that is kind of invisible. But I'll tell you what
else is blinking yellow, if not red, and that's cyber
and cyber attacks, typhoon vault, typhoon salt. These are Chinese intrusions,
(09:45):
and I assure you the US is, let's just say,
pretty good.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
At this stuff.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Also, there's a lot of cyber conflict that's frankly already occurring.
There's three indicators that are blinking yellow, if not close
to blinking red raws.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
We're talking with.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Admiral James Tavritis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, among other things.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
These days, he's.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
A partner and vice chairman for Global Affairs at the
Carlisle Group. We just have a couple of minutes left
at Admiral, I want to come back to China to
tie it in with this next thing. So there are
supposed to be conversations going on right now regarding the
Ukraine Russia ceasefire. Secretary of State Rubio was going to
(10:28):
go now, he says he's not. Keith Kellogg will be
handling that. I know better than to ask you your
opinion about other military former military officers, so I'm not
going to ask.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
You what you think of him.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
It seems to me that Trump has been putting way
too much pressure on Ukraine and not enough pressure on Russia.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
I would like to know what.
Speaker 1 (10:50):
You think about the status of these negotiations and whether
you think Donald Trump's claim that he will just walk
away from a peace process is an negotiating tactic or something.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
He might really do as if you can read his mind.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
Let's start with Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and two thumbs up.
He's solid, He's extremely knowledgeable. He's in his late seventies,
He's seen a lot of the world. He understands war,
he understands Europe very well. I think he's a very
good choice. Glad to hear that lead the Ukrainian side
of the negotiation. Number two, I want to commend the
(11:29):
Trump administration for pursuing a peace process.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
Number three. Your point to.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Make it successful, you have to put equal amounts of
pressure both on Ukraine and on Russia. At the moment,
from all I can see by reporting and my own contacts,
I think Russia is just playing ropidope in there. They
want to see how far they can push to get
(11:55):
more concessions extracted. They're really not interested in stopping the
combat operation.
Speaker 4 (12:01):
So point four and final point, I think.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
Your supposition is correct that this is a negotiating tactic
to put pressure, frankly on both sides. And you know,
the Ukrainians are going to have to make some concessions,
but the Russians are going to have to make some
concessions also. It's too soon to predict the shape of
the final deal, but I think that saying to both sides, Russia,
(12:28):
you know, if you don't come to the table, your
chances of sanctions relieve zero, and saying to Ukraine, Ukraine,
if you don't come to the table, your chances of
continued military support from the United States zero or very low.
So I think it's an appropriate moment put pressure on
both sides, bring them to the table, get a seasfire
(12:51):
in place. I think you can negotiate a deal here,
and I think it would be one that roughly looks
like what you see now. Putin unfortunately ends up with
Crimea and the land Bridge twenty percent of Ukraine, but
the eighty percent of Ukraine sales on democratic free path
to the European Union, probably not a path to NATO
(13:12):
at the moment, continued support from Europe That's probably how
this comes out toward the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Unsurprisingly, I do think Ukraine may end up having to
just throw their hands up and walk away from Crimea.
But I think I think they won't and shouldn't walk
away from you know, Karkiev, don Boss and that stuff.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
No, right, so one very very quick thing.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
We're just about out of time, and I would like
you to I would like to know whether you think
I am overly concerned here. My concern is that if
Trump actually does walk away and leaves Ukraine, even if
the Europeans keep supporting Ukraine, I think that that would
massively increase Chesian Ping's incentive to try to take Taiwan
(14:00):
while Trump is in office.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Is that is that paranoid?
Speaker 4 (14:05):
No, No, it's accurate.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
And believe me, Shijiping wakes up every morning and when
he has this morning tea, he says, how are things
going in Ukraine? He's watching that very closely, has been
for three years. I think that's one of a handful
of important reasons, one of the very most important reasons
that we need to not simply walk away from this.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
It'll leak Taiwan out there dangling. And here's the newsflash.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Taiwan is the center of the manufacturer of the most
high end semiconductor chips. If that falls, is destroyed, or
falls into Chinese hands, the least of our worries are
going to be terrriff barriers.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Admiral James Taveta is his website Admiral stab stav dot com.
You should buy and read any and all of his books.
But given where we are in the world right now,
I'd start actually with the novel twenty thirty four. Anyway,
Admiral Staritaz. It's so good to have you here as always,
look forward to talking to you the next time.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
Thanks a lot. Talks to you all right, ro